Can South Africa escape what has happened to its northern neighbours? I doubt it

The West has gone all out to rubbish this yet even the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act states clearly that its purpose is to “support the people of Zimbabwe in their struggle to effect peaceful, democratic change, achieve broad-based and equitable economic growth, and restore the rule of law”.

Put bluntly. Regime change. Of course, there was an element of mismanagement by ZANU-PF. After all, it is generally agreed that no one can do wonders when one overstays in power.

Mugabe stayed too long. But it is also equally wrong to describe his reign as 37-years of misrule. Zimbabwe made tremendous strides in the first decade with Mugabe being showered with international awards for steering the country into the region’s breadbasket and having the best education on the continent. Mugabe was even knighted for his achievements.

But the country started going down after its land reform programme and was forced to abandon its local currency in 2009. The country has been slow to recover though Emmeron Mnangagwa is doing his best. It is easier to destroy than to build, but whether people accept it or not, Zimbabwe is well on its way to recovery. It will take time but the worst is over.

In my view we cannot say the same about South Africa. It remains the biggest economy in Africa up today (some studies say Nigeria is), but for how long? In my view, South Africa can only continue to be the biggest economy as long as the black population remains in denial, and accepts the hogwash that they are benefitting from the fruits of their struggle.

Most black South Africans, just like black Zimbabweans at independence, think they are better off than their black colleagues from the north. This false notion is reinforced by the fact that blacks from the north, especially Zimbabwe, are flocking South to look for better opportunities.

But reality is different. South Africa is currently the most unequal country in the world, according to the World Bank. The World Inequality Report for 2022 is even more damning. It says that the top 10% income share oscillated between 50 and 65% , whereas the bottom 50% of the population has never captured more than 5-10% of national income. 

“While democratic rights were extended to the totality of the population after the end of apartheid in 1991, extreme economic inequalities have persisted and been exacerbated. Post-apartheid governments have not implemented structural economic reforms (including land, tax and social security reforms) sufficient to challenge the dual economy system,” the report says.

“While the richest South Africans have wealth levels broadly comparable with those of affluent Western Europeans, the bottom 50% in South Africa own no wealth at all. The top 10% own close to 86% of total wealth and the share of the bottom 50% is negative, meaning that the group has more debts than assets. 

“Since 1990, the average household wealth for the bottom 50% has remained under zero,” the report says.

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