The military is likely to push Emmerson Mnangagwa as leader if President Robert Mugabe dies before a successor is chosen because the securocrats do not trust Vice President Joice Mujuru.
This was said by Tanzanian ambassador to Zimbabwe Adadi Rajabu on 15 December 2009 according to a diplomatic cable just released by Wikileaks.
In what he said was one of the most pessimistic views of Zimbabwe he had heard from an African diplomat, United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Charles Ray said Rajabu had told him that the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front was still in revolutionary mode and had completely failed at governing the country.
Rajabu said President Robert Mugabe had committed what could be a grievous error by not focusing on a successor because this could lead ultimately to chaos in the event of his sudden death.
“Robert Mugabe at one time appeared to be looking at Joice Mujuru as a possible successor, but hardliners within the party labelled her and her husband as too close to the US and UK and he switched his attention to Emmerson Mnangagwa.
“It isn’t clear, though, if this means he sees Mnangagwa as a successor, or if this is just another example of his continuing manipulation of his party. Should he suddenly die or be incapacitated, however, there will be chaos.”
Rajabu said that those who think the military’s professionalism will keep it from intervening in politics are wrong. He thought that the military would, in such a case, put Mnangagwa forward as leader because the military chiefs and other hardliners did not trust Mujuru.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE977, AMBASSADOR RAY’S VISIT WITH TANZANIAN AMBASSADOR
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|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO7828
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0977/01 3501501
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161501Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5230
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000977
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2019
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR RAY’S VISIT WITH TANZANIAN AMBASSADOR
TO ZIM
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: According to the Tanzanian Ambassador to
Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF, as a revolutionary party, has failed in
its efforts to govern Zimbabwe. Mugabe has committed what
could be a grievous error by not focusing on a successor, and
this could lead ultimately to chaos in the event of his
sudden death. The military is not likely to stand by should
that happen, and will probably put Emmerson Mnangagwa forward
as leader because the securocrats do not like Vice President
Joice Mujuru. MDC-M head Arthur Mutambara is a politician
without a platform who cannot be trusted, and by siding with
ZANU-PF against MDC-T in Maputo he prevented any progress
toward reform. South Africa’s Zuma has clearly lost patience
with Mugabe, but divisions within SADC limit the actions that
can be taken. Except for Zuma himself, Botswana, and
Tanzania, there is little stomach in SADC for criticizing
Mugabe or ZANU-PF. Right now, with Mugabe stalling on the
agreements made, SADC’s integrity is on the line and it faces
the dilemma of what to do in the event of no progress on the
GPA and SADC Communique. The people of Zimbabwe are
tolerant, but their patience will someday come to an end, and
that could result in chaos and spill over into the region.
END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) In a December 15 meeting with Tanzanian Ambassador
Adadi Rajabu, I was treated to one of the most pessimistic
views of Zimbabwe I have heard from African diplomats here.
He said that ZANU-PF seems to be still in revolutionary mode,
and had completely failed at governing the country. Robert
Mugabe at one time appeared to be looking at Joice Mujuru as
a possible successor, but hardliners within the party labeled
her and her husband as too close to the U.S. and UK and he
switched his attention to Emmerson Mnangagwa. It isn’t
clear, though, if this means he sees Mnangagwa as a
successor, or if this is just another example of his
continuing manipulation of his party. Should he suddenly die
or be incapacitated, however, there will be chaos. Rajabu
believes that those who think the military’s professionalism
will keep it from intervening in politics are wrong. He
thinks that the military would, in such a case, put Mnangagwa
forward as leader because the military chiefs and other
hardliners don’t trust Mujuru.
¶3. (C) Rajabu had strong comments about MDC-M leader Arthur
Mutambara. He said that Mutambara is a politician without a
platform or principles, and cautioned against believing
anything he says. He said that at the Maputo meeting,
Mutambara sabotaged any chances of positive progress by
siding with ZANU-PF against Tsvangirai.
¶4. (C) South African President Zuma has clearly lost
patience with Mugabe, according to Rajabu. He said that at
the Maputo meeting, Zuma was blunt and took several minutes
to calm down. Unfortunately, he is saddled with a divided
SADC, with only Botswana and Tanzania willing to take a
stance against ZANU-PF. The other SADC members, for varying
reasons, will not criticize Mugabe publicly. He expressed
surprise that the South African facilitators reported
progress in recent talks, because he has seen none. He said
the only concession Mugabe is likely to make (and that not
until next year after the holidays) is on provincial
governors. When I pointed out to him that it appears that he
might be looking for a way to avoid doing even that, he
Qmight be looking for a way to avoid doing even that, he
agreed that I was likely correct. The question then is what
SADC will do about the lack of progress. SADC’s integrity is
on the line, he said. It is bad enough that nothing was done
after the deadline established in Maputo was not met, but if
nothing is done about no further progress, it will look
extremely bad for SADC.
¶5. (C) Rajabu described the people of Zimbabwe as patient
and tolerant in the face of unimaginable hardships. But,
that patience will one day come to an end, he said, and then
there could be chaos. He pointed out that if this was West
Africa, there would already be general chaos and a violent
reaction to the government’s ineptness and abuse. The
results of past elections, despite ZANU-PF’s efforts to swing
things its way, show that the people in this country are not
as ignorant or uninformed as some might think. In the first
election, even though ZANU-PF spread money and agricultural
inputs throughout the countryside, and felt assured of a win,
MDC got more votes. This demonstrates he said, that
Zimbabweans are politically aware and can only be manipulated
to a degree. He doesn’t believe the country is ready yet for
another election, because if it is scheduled too soon there
HARARE 00000977 002 OF 002
is likely to be even more violence and manipulation than last
time.
¶6. (C) COMMENT: Rajabu said that while he is probably not
as much of a target for criticism as the U.S. and UK
ambassadors, due to his country’s stance and his own actions,
he is definitely not liked by ZANU-PF. Because of the
history of Zimbabwe and Tanzania, however, they are forced to
treat him with respect. His views on the likely role of the
military in the event of an abrupt Mugabe departure are
significant. Not enough attention has been paid to what the
military might do, and arguments that they will stand idly by
while politicians fight over Mugabe’s bones don’t take into
account that regardless of their professionalism, African
militaries have a history of stepping in to fill political
vacuums. END COMMENT.
RAY
(28 VIEWS)
