PROSPECTS for peace in Mozambique are getting brighter by the day as it is increasingly becoming evident that neither the FRELIMO government nor the rebel RENAMO movement can win control of the entire country.
FRELIMO seems to be only in control in the major cities of Maputo and Beira and the only other safe areas are those where a form of special security has been provided. This is mainly along the Beira and Maputo corridors and the large privately-owned estates where hired security personnel guard plantations.
It appears that RENAMO, which entered into talks with FRELIMO two years ago, wanted to prolong the peace talks in the hope that the FRELIMO rule would collapse because of chaos in the country, but this has not happened.
Now RENAMO is facing another problem, drought. The drought is not only robbing RENAMO of its major source of income, game from which they sell trophies, but it is also losing them their camouflage and support as people leave their traditional homes to seek shelter along the corridors or in refugee camps where they can get food.
RENAMO also seems to be losing financial support from its major sponsors South Africa and right-wing groups in the United States. South Africa is now concentrating on finding a solution to its own internal problems and is engaged in constitutional talks which have now broken down. The collapse of the Soviet Union and communism in general seems to have deprived right-wing groups of their main purpose of existence.
FRELIMO, on the other hand, has been trying to transform the country into a market-oriented economy but without much needed support. Investors have been mainly coming from South Africa but they too are concentrated in the safe areas.
These events seem to have pushed the two sides closer to finding a solution to their 17-year-old war which has resulted in more than one million people fleeing to Malawi, others to Zimbabwe and Zambia and some five million displaced within the country.
So far the two parties have signed a partial ceasefire along the Limpopo and Beira railway corridors into Zimbabwe. This was agreed on 1 December 1990 although there have been a few attacks by RENAMO which has often claimed that the Zimbabwean forces are not keeping within their limits.
The two parties also signed protocols one and two on basic principles and the criteria and modalities for forming and recognizing political parties in October-November last year. There are already several registered political parties in the country.
In May this year they signed protocol three on Electoral law and they are now discussing military questions, guarantees, modalities for a ceasefire and composition of a donors’ conference to finance the electoral process.
RENAMO is reported to be insisting on a small army of 20 000 with half from either side, but FRELIMO is requesting an army of 35 000.
Quite aware that time is running out, RENAMO leader Alfonso Dlakama, met President Robert Mugabe and Sir Ketumile Masire in Gaborone this month.
He clearly pointed out that there was no need for the war in Mozambique to continue. All he was asking for was guaranteed safety for members of his government so that they too can freely campaign without fear of being arrested by FRELIMO police. Dlakama who referred to his adversary, Joaquim Chissano , as a “brother” said he was prepared to sign a ceasefire anytime, and told President Robert Mugabe that the “ball is now in your court”.
This might prove to be tricky as by doing so Dlakama was in fact asking President Mugabe to convince his friend, Chissano, to sign a ceasefire and provide the guarantees RENAMO sought.
President Chissano on the other hand could not believe Dlakama was serious and said he would only change his stance about RENAMO’s eagerness to reach peace once he had been briefed on the talks by President Mugabe.
Chissano said his government was prepared to sign the ceasefire any time but the ball was in RENAMO’s court.
With RENAMO having passed the ball to President Mugabe’s court, it is now incumbent on the Zimbabwean leader to ensure the two parties get an amicable solution.
The end of war in Mozambique will be a major boost for Zimbabwe’s economy as this will save it millions of dollars which it is spending on guarding the two railway corridors. This money would be better utilized for the development of the country.
The end of the war will also mean an end to smuggling and pilferage which has been enriching some top officials, especially in the army.
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