Mines Minister Obert Mpofu, though one of the few ministers from Matabeleland who had won elections after the formation of the Movement for Democratic Change, was considered a political weight to succeed Joseph Msika as vice-president when he died in August 2009.
The United States embassy felt the logical successors would be John Nkomo and Dumiso Dabengwa but Dabengwa had already left the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front to revive the Zimbabwe African People’s Union.
It said that Nkomo was going to add very little value to ZANU-PF as he did not have a constituency of his own but he was likely to be appointed because President Robert Mugabe was primarily concerned about himself and wanted to stay in office indefinitely.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE643, MSIKA’S DEATH AND HIS SUCCESSOR
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO6513
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0643/01 2181547
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061547Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4790
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2973
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3089
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1518
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2352
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2719
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3137
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5580
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2267
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000643
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI PINR
SUBJECT: MSIKA’S DEATH AND HIS SUCCESSOR
Classified By: CDA Katherine Dhanani for reason 1.4 (d)
——————————————
Vice President Msika’s Death Made Official
——————————————
¶1. (SBU) Zimbabwe’s long-serving Vice President, Joseph
Msika, died of liver and kidney failure the morning of August
5, 2009, according to the State media. (NOTE: The GOZ
officially announced August 6 that Msika had died on August
5; we learned from sources that he actually died on August 4.
END NOTE.) Msika had suffered several serious strokes
during the past few years, had not been seen in public since
March 2009, and was no longer a significant political force
within ZANU-PF. He was 85 years old at the time of his death
and had been the country’s vice president since succeeding
Joshua Nkomo in 1999. Msika was also a founding member of
the PF-ZAPU independence party and a signatory to the 1987
Unity Accords that merged PF-ZAPU into ZANU-PF. In addition
to his position as vice president, Msika, along with
President Robert Mugabe, Vice President Joice Mujuru, and
ZANU-PF Chairperson John Nkomo, was a member of the ZANU-PF
ruling presidium The ZANU-PF politburo met after his death
and granted him “hero” status and a place in the National
Hero’s Acre.
——————————————— –
The Battle for Succession and Mugabe’s Dilemma
——————————————— –
¶2. (C) The decision on who will replace Msika, although
theoretically made by the politburo, is Mugabe’s. In keeping
with the historical precedent maintained since the 1987 Unity
Accords, Mugabe is almost certain to fill the vacancy with an
Ndebele. Additionally, he will seek to name an individual
who will be loyal to him and, with an eye to the next
election, can help rebuild the party in Matabeleland. His
task is made difficult by the paucity of Ndebele leaders with
national stature. Publicly known figures such as Minister of
Mines Obert Mpofu, Ambassador to South Africa S. K. Moyo, and
Bulawayo Governor Cain Mathewa are generally considered light
weights. The leading contenders would appear to be John
Nkomo and Dumiso Dabengwa.
¶3. (C) Nkomo, who is almost 76 years old, is a long-standing
member of ZANU-PF. Originally a member of PF-ZAPU and a
one-time head of ZIPRA, the military arm of PF-ZAPU, Nkomo
was an enthusiastic supporter of the Unity Accord. In
addition to being Chair of ZANU-PF, Nkomo was Speaker of
Parliament from 2005 to 2008 and has held various ministerial
positions. He is unquestionably loyal to Mugabe. Because of
this loyalty, however, he enjoys little support in
Matabeleland which probably explains his decision not to
stand for a parliamentary seat in the 2008 elections. He
would be of little help in boosting ZANU-PF support in future
elections. Nkomo also reportedly suffers from prostate
cancer for which he receives treatment in South Africa. He
would be a safe choice for Mugabe in the short term, but he
Qwould be a safe choice for Mugabe in the short term, but he
offers little longer term reward.
¶4. (C) Dabengwa, who is 69, offers high risk but potentially
significant benefits. He has a complicated history with
Mugabe. He was the head of ZIPRA intelligence before
independence and had a collaborative relationship with
General Solomon Mujuru who headed ZANLA, the military wing of
ZANU-PF. In 1982 the Mugabe administration charged Dabengwa
with treason, alleging he was part of a PF-ZAPU effort to
overthrow the government. After being acquitted, he was
detained for four years under emergency measures. After
release and rehabilitation, he served as Minister of Home
Affairs between 1992 and 2000. He ran for Parliament in 2000
but lost to MDC stalwart Gibson Sibanda. He lost again in
HARARE 00000643 002 OF 002
¶2005. Dabengwa was a member of the ZANU-PF politburo until
the spring of 2008 when he announced his support of Simba
Makoni for president. This year, he became interim head of a
reconstituted ZAPU.
¶5. (C) Dabengwa is prominent in Matabeleland and could offer
the possibility of strengthening ZANU-PF in that area. His
electoral defeats — almost certainly a result of his long
and close association with ZANU-PF which is blamed for the
Gukuruhundi massacres in the 1980s in Matabeleland — calls
this into question. Further, since he announced his support
for Makoni, he has criticized Mugabe for being too old to
effectively lead ZANU-PF and the country, and has attacked
ZANU-PF as corrupt. Mugabe would also have other reasons to
distrust Dabengwa’s loyalty. Dabengwa is close to Solomon
and Joice Mujuru, Mugabe’s primary intraparty rivals, and he
has a strong relationship with South African president Jacob
Zuma who is a Mugabe critic. For his part, in the event an
offer were made by Mugabe, Dabengwa would have to leave the
party that he recently started. He would also have to take
into account the reality that the Ndebele have historically
been marginalized in ZANU-PF and that Mugabe might keep the
wraps on him should he rejoin the party, even in the position
of vice president.
——————
And the Winner is?
——————
¶6. (C) ZANU-PF politics are opaque, primarily because one
man makes the decisions and rarely tips his hand to others.
Since Mugabe is primarily concerned about himself and wants
to stay in office indefinitely, the most likely pick —
because it’s the safest pick for him personally — is Nkomo.
But we don’t underestimate Mugabe’s ability to surprise. He
could work out a deal with Dabengwa, choose the junior and
lightly-regarded Mpofu, or do something unforeseen. A more
remote possibility is that Mugabe will scrap the Unity Accord
and choose a Shona vice Ndebele as Msika’s replacement. To
do so, however, would be to give up completely on electoral
support from Matabeleland and to give up any pretense of
ZANU-PF as a national party. On balance, it is unlikely that
Msika’s death will affect the current political situation.
Mugabe will continue to cling to power and control his party,
and the party will continue to drag its feet on the Global
Political Agreement.
DHANANI
(21 VIEWS)
