4. (C) MNANGAGWA RIVALS, SUCH AS ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI AS SECRETARY FOR HEALTH AND CHILD WELFARE, AND FORMER ARMY GENERAL SOLOMON MUJURU AS MEMBER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO, HAVE BEEN RELEGATED TO THE POLITBURO PERIPHERY. ACCORDING TO UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE PROFESSOR BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, RIVAL EDDISON ZVOBGO WAS FORCED OUT OF THE POLITBURO ALTOGETHER AS A WAY TO PROTECT MNANGAGWA'S ASCENDANCY. A POTENTIAL RIVAL, FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI–OFTEN TOUTED AS A POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR TO MUGABE–WAS MADE THE PARTY'S DEPUTY SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, UNDER THE WATCHFUL EYE OF MNANGAGWA'S FRIEND HOVE. THE NEW POLITBURO HAS BEEN SET UP TO SUPPORT MNANGAGWA.
5. (C) RAFTOPOULOS TOLD US THAT HE ALSO SEES AN ETHNIC DIMENSION TO THE POLITBURO APPOINTMENTS. THE NDEBELE AND MANICA–WHOSE HOME PROVINCES ARE DOMINATED BY THE MDC–ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPPOSITION, AND ZANU-PF MEMBERS FROM THOSE AREAS ARE MORE OFTEN SUSPECTED OF HARBORING SYMPATHIES FOR THE OPPOSITION. AS A RESULT, THE NDEBELE OR MANICA NO LONGER RETAIN INDEPENDENT POWER BASES IN ZANU-PF, AND THE NEW POLITBURO REFLECTS THAT, ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS. NONE OF THE NEW POLITBURO DEPARTMENT HEADS HAIL FROM MATABELELAND OR MANICALAND, TO OUR KNOWLEDGE. THE DEPARTURE OF ZVOBGO WEAKENS HIS POSITION IN KALANGA-DOMINATED MASVINGO, WHERE ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ARE BATTLING FOR INFLUENCE. ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO THWART A POSSIBLE NDEBELE-KALANGA ALLIANCE LED BY ZVOBGO, WHO HAS BEEN TRYING TO DILUTE THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP'S AUTHORITY IN MASVINGO, RAFTOPOULOS STATED.
ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN "POWER AXIS" BETWEEN THE ZEZURU OF MASHONALAND AND THE KALANGA OF MASVINGO BY SIDELINING ZVOBGO AND INSTALLING PARTY LEADERS LOYAL TO HARARE IN MASVINGO, ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS.
6. (C) COMMENT: MUGABE'S NEW POLITBURO NOT ONLY CONSOLIDATES HIS OWN POSITION IN ZANU-PF, IT APPEARS TO PUT MNANGAGWA NEAR THE APEX OF PARTY POWER. IF MUGABE IS INDEED THINKING OF STEPPING DOWN A YEAR OR TWO AFTER WINNING ONE MORE TERM, AS A NUMBER OF INTERLOCUTORS HAVE TOLD US, NOW WOULD BE THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING A SUCCESSOR. MNANGAGWA IS A LONG-TIME AND CLOSE ALLY OF MUGABE AND HAS THE FULL CONFIDENCE OF THE PRESIDENT.
THE SPEAKER'S FEARED REPUTATION AS AN "ENFORCER" WOULD SERVE MUGABE'S DESIRE TO HOLD ZANU-PF TOGETHER AND DEFEAT THE MDC USING ANY MEANS NECESSARY. IF HE BECAME PRESIDENT, MNANGAGWA COULD TURN OUT TO BE JUST AS DICTATORIAL AS MUGABE; RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES HE WOULD BE EVEN MORE RUTHLESS THAN MUGABE. IT IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER MNANGAGWA IS THE ACTUAL HEIR APPARENT, BUT RECENT EVENTS MAKE HIM THE EARLY FAVORITE.
IRVING
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