South Africa’s assistant director in the Department of Foreign Affairs Eden Reid said Mavambo leader Simba Makoni’s presidential bid was premature.
He said this before the 2008 elections adding that Makoni should have waited until the 2009 Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front congress where he likely would have been elected party leader.
Instead he was now out of ZANU-PF forever and ZANU-PF was not forgiving of “traitors”.
War veterans leader Joseph Chinotimba had labelled Makoni a traitor when he announced his intention to challenge President Robert Mugabe.
Mugabe was re-elected party leader at the 2009 party congress.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA482, ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS: SOUTH AFRICA TO SEND 50
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|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO8623
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #0482/01 0671454
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071454Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3742
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5385
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9639
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000482
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S S. HILL
NSC FOR AF DIRECTOR B. LEO
DEPT PASS TO USAID E. LOKEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS: SOUTH AFRICA TO SEND 50
OBSERVERS AS PART OF SADC DELEGATION
REF: A. STATE 018257
¶B. PRETORIA 0454
¶C. PRETORIA 0375
PRETORIA 00000482 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Charge d’Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. South Africa will deploy approximately 50
election observers to Zimbabwe as part of the SADC
delegation. Angola, as chair of the SADC Troika, will lead
the SADC delegation, which the South African Government hopes
will include at least 100 regional observers. Ambassador
Kingsley Mamabolo will serve as the senior South African
member on the delegation. The South African Government is
aware of the decision to deny SADC-PF separate accreditation
(ref B), but said merely that it was the prerogative of the
Government of Zimbabwe to accredit observers. The
Pan-African Parliament will separately send approximately 20
observers to Zimbabwe, led by Swazi MP Marwick Khumalo.
Several South African civil society groups, who were either
denied accreditation or never bothered trying, will send
“informal observers.” END SUMMARY.
——————————————— –
South Africa to Participate in SADC Delegation
——————————————— –
¶2. (SBU) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Deputy Director
for Southern Africa Gabriel Setlhoke and Assistant Director
Eden Reid told PolOff March 7 that South Africa plans to
deploy approximately 50 observers to Zimbabwe for the March
29 elections as part of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) delegation. South Africa will not/not
deploy a separate bilateral South African Government (SAG)
delegation, as they did for the 2005 parliamentary elections
in Zimbabwe. An advance South African team will arrive in
Harare March 9 or 10, with the bulk of the delegation
deploying on March 20. The South African delegation will
include government officials, civil society, and Members of
Parliament. SAG Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo told
PolCounselor and PolOff March 6 that he will lead the South
African component of the SADC delegation. No South African
ministers or deputy ministers will participate in the
mission.
¶3. (C) Angola, as chair of the SADC Troika on Politics,
Defence and Security, will lead the SADC election observation
mission, according to Reid. He expects that an Angolan
minister, yet to be determined, will serve as delegation
head. South Africa hopes that the SADC delegation will
include more than 100 observers, although the total number
will depend on the willingness, capacity and resources of the
SADC countries. SADC expects to launch the election
observation mission March 9 or 10 in Harare, although both
Reid and Mamabolo acknowledged that the SADC planning has
been “chaotic.”
¶4. (SBU) Reid underscored that the SADC delegation will
deploy throughout the country, and will meet with the
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the Registrar-General, the
political parties, and civil society organizations. Reid,
who served at the South African Embassy in Zimbabwe, said
that the South African observers will be fully briefed on the
“challenges” around registration, delimitation, and media
restrictions, and will take those issues into account during
their observations.
¶5. (C) Speaking personally, Reid (protect) said he expects
President Mugabe to win. Simba Makoni, if he is “very
QPresident Mugabe to win. Simba Makoni, if he is “very
lucky,” could make it to a second round. In Reid’s view,
Makoni’s presidential bid was “premature.” He should have
waited until the 2009 ZANU-PF Congress, where he likely would
have been elected party head. Instead, Makoni is now out of
ZANU-PF forever, Reid argued, noting that the party is not
forgiving of “traitors.”
———————————
GOZ Prerogative to Exclude SADC-PF
———————————
¶6. (C) The SAG was aware of the Government of Zimbabwe’s
(GOZ) refusal to accredit the SADC-Parliamentary Forum
PRETORIA 00000482 002.2 OF 003
(SADC-PF) for the elections. Reid said it is the prerogative
of the GOZ to invite observers, and not the place of South
Africa to second-guess their internal decisions. He noted
that SADC’s role in the elections will be “significant” since
it will be one of the only large international election
observation missions in the country.
—————
ANC Delegation?
—————
¶7. (C) To date, Post has been unable to confirm whether the
ANC will send a separate delegation to Zimbabwe, as they did
in 2005. Neither DFA nor the Electoral Institute for
Southern Africa (EISA) were aware of ANC plans. (COMMENT:
Elements of the new ANC leadership, particularly COSATU and
the South African Communist Party (SACP), have been critical
of Mugabe. If an ANC delegation includes COSATU or SACP
members, the ANC delegation might provide a more honest and
independent assessment of the electoral process. END
COMMENT.)
———————-
Pan-African Parliament
———————-
¶8. (C) The Pan-African Parliament (PAP) plans to deploy
approximately 20 observers o/a March 22, including both PAP
Members of Parliament and secretariat staff. PAP Member
Marwick Khumalo from Swaziland will serve as head of the PAP
delegation, according to Khalid Dahab, Senior Information,
Communications & Media Relations Officer. Dahab, a Sudanese
national, will be part of the delegation. Dahab told PolOff
March 6 that the situation in Zimbabwe is “very sad,”
expressing his personal hope that the elections in Zimbabwe
would lead to positive change.
————-
Civil Society
————-
¶9. (C) South African civil society organizations that plan to
send observers to Zimbabwe include:
— Electoral Institute for Southern Africa (EISA): EISA has
formally requested accreditation from the GOZ, but expects to
be denied permission, as they were in 2005. In that event,
they plan to “embed” several of their Zimbabwean staff in the
domestic Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) observation
teams. EISA Senior Researcher Bertha Chiroro told PolOff
March 06 that her contacts told her President Mugabe himself
made the decisions on observer accreditation. EISA has also
been asked to deploy one of their staff as part of the
African Union delegation. Chiroro reported that EISA offered
to provide assistance and even funds to the Zimbabwe Election
Commission to assist with the elections, but the head of the
Commission refused.
— Institute for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA): IDASA
plans to send approximately 15 members of their staff to
Zimbabwe, including institute head Paul Graham and analyst
Sydney Masamvu, as “informal observers” (ref C). The
Government of Norway is funding their mission.
— Anglican Church: The South African Anglican Church is
sending approximately 10-15 “informal observers,” and will
interact with their counterparts in Zimbabwe (ref C).
— Institute for a Democratic Alternative for Zimbabwe
(IDAZIM): A new think tank based in Midrand, IDAZIM will
likely receive funding from the Embassy of Germany to send
15-20 informal observers for the election. IDAZIM is
focusing its research and programs on transitional democracy,
economics, justice, and leadership. Its board members
include prominent South Africans Fredrick van Zyl Slabbert
Qinclude prominent South Africans Fredrick van Zyl Slabbert
and Alex Boraine, as well as Zimbabwean civil society
activists Deprose Muchena, Arnold Tsunga, Tawanda Mutasah,
Berita Kopolo, Nontokozo Mema, and IDAZIM Director David
Malungisa.
——-
Comment
PRETORIA 00000482 003.2 OF 003
——-
¶10. (C) We doubt that the South Africans on the election
observation delegation will be willing to criticize the
obvious flaws in the Zimbabwe election. Based on our
conversations with SAG officials and others, we would
speculate that the SADC would be inclined to use language
similar to its 2005 statement on the elections, calling them
“credible, well managed and transparent.” That said, we are
somewhat encouraged by the involvement of Ambassador
Mamabolo, who lived in Zimbabwe in exile in the 1980s, and
understands well the impact of Mugabe’s misrule. Mamabolo is
reasonable and accessible, and may be willing to push for
some nuance in the SADC statement. We would also recommend
that the MDC, ZESN, and other civil society organizations
engage the SADC delegation early and often. In 2005, we
heard several reports from the South African observers who
charged that the MDC complained about the election, but never
provided them with concrete evidence.
TEITELBAUM
(55 VIEWS)
