The Robert Lansing Institute Report
Scenarios: Mnangagwa likely to save presidency amid risks of violence in Zimbabwe after elections
January 17, 2023
Zimbabwe’s 2023 Elections are highly likely to be followed by bloodbath, with government party pressing on opposition and ZANU-PF stepping aside from democracy standards.
The President Emmerson Mnangagwa will likely win Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections, but it’ll cause security and political crisis in the state, so as rising foreign influence there.
Zimbabwe’s main political parties have started preparing for the country’s general elections in 2023 as they hold rallies and campaign activities in cities and towns to whip up their support bases.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has yet to announce the exact date for the vote, but it has revealed that it would be held in either July or August 2023. After last elections took place on July 31, 2018.
The main political parties for the 2023 elections remain the Zanu-PF, which has been in power since independence in 1980, and the opposition Citizens Coalition For Change (CCC), formed early this year and led by Nelson Chamisa.
Some institutions, like The British parliament, for example, expressed concern over the lack of signs that Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections would be credible, saying there was a shortage of meaningful political, economic, and human rights reforms.
In its latest report, the Zimbabwe Human Rights non-governmental organisation (ZHRNGO Forum) revealed that violence was once again showing its ugly head, as protagonists employ dirty tactics to gain both political and electoral advantage. A total of 1,901 politically motivated cases have been recorded so far, as calls for solutions to the deepening polarisation and political intolerance escalate ahead of the 2023 general elections.
However, the country is already in election mode and merely waiting for presidential proclamation of official dates.
The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has ramped up its campaign. The political and electoral playing field remains deeply uneven and stacked in favour of the ruling party.
ZANU-PF’s campaign is a mix of state events and party activities, with the national broadcaster doing the party’s bidding. Meanwhile, Nelson Chamisa’s political opposition, Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) – which put up a spirited performance during the recent by-elections – is trying to establish itself while simultaneously preparing for the 2023 polls.
An analysis of the political terrain after the by-elections shows that ZANU-PF’s position as the ruling party is safe so far.
The CCC’s performance was impressive. It showed political prowess to turn the tide in the by-elections, winning 19 of the 28 seats up for grabs. However, its candidates were previous holders of 21 of 28 seats. In effect, the party managed to return 19 seats and lost two.
The public broadcaster continues to be partial to the ruling party, which enjoys unlimited coverage in the public print, radio and television stations. This matters because internet penetration and mobile data coverage are low in Zimbabwe, making the public broadcaster the main source of information with the widest audience.
Opposition parties cannot afford to base their electoral position on political posturing – they need solid groundwork. A comprehensive strategy should look at the overall political environment and honestly assess the opposition’s chances of unseating the ruling party. Carefully articulated messages and localised campaigns are needed to make inroads in ZANU-PF power bases.
Recent brutal attack on Zimbabwe opposition supporters was clearly intended to harass and intimidate them ahead of elections expected later this year. Ruling-party youth beat and kicked older supporters of the Citizens Coalition for Change (Triple C). The video, which has gone viral on social media, showed some elderly members of the Triple C being assaulted over the weekend in Murehwa about 100 kilometers east of Harare.
Fadzayi Mahere, Triple C spokeswoman, has accused the ruling Zanu-PF party of masterminding the violence and blamed the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and the police for failing to stop it.
There is no doubt that many young people have lost interest and confidence in elections as a mechanism for political change and find it meaningless to vote because almost all of the elections are invariably characterised by violence and allegations of electoral fraud.
The ruling party uses food and land distribution to win votes (mostly in rural areas), on the other hand, the opposition banks on popular anger and disillusionment rather than on its mobilisation prowess.
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