ZANU PF has three scenarios for the 2023 elections:
The most likely scenario: ZANU PF will win the elections with relatively as little controversy and dispute as possible.
In this scenario, polling figures (both from polling stations and constituencies, V11 and V23) tally as perfectly as possible with those announced by the national command center – and, hopefully limit any rigging allegations. In this way, President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa and his ruling ZANU PF party hope for acceptance and legitimacy by the local, but especially international community – as he seeks to be recognized as truly and democratically elected leader.
The flagship of his administration is the ‘engagement and re-engagement policy’ – which Mnangagwa is pinning his hopes on for the removal of targeted sanctions and the pariah state tag. This is what Mnangagwa hopes for.
However, there is a huge hurdle – the ever-growing support and strength of the opposition CCC party.
Mnangagwa would want to weaken the opposition before the 2023 elections.
In order, to achieve this goal he has tried, and continues to try, so many sinister plots – including exploiting internal power struggles witnessed following the death of then MDC-T leader Morgan Richard Tsvangirai (leading to people as Thokozani Khupe and Douglas Mwonzora being Mnangagwa’s running dogs), abuse of state institutions (courts, ZEC, law enforcement), persecution of senior CCC officials and violence onslaught on supporters, and now buying opposition MPs loyalty via the notorious US$40,000 loans.
However, Mnangagwa is busy with his vote buying in rural areas – through the partisan distribution of government taxpayer-funded assistance.
So ZANU PF hopes to win, in a relatively acceptable manner.
Less likely scenario: Flagrant rigging of elections. Results announced by the electoral commission after the 2023 elections are doctored and far different from those at the polling stations (V11) and constituencies (V23). This has happened before in 2008 and 2018.
In this regard, as much as ZANU PF would want to avoid this, the risk is far more acceptable for the party than losing power.
The main riskis conducting another disputed election – which will not be accepted by both the opposition and the international community – leading to Mnangagwa’s continued questioned legitimacy, and targeted sanctions remaining.
That is a risk President’s party is willing to take, as the consequences of relinquishing power are too ghastly for the ruling elite to fathom – since there is just too much at stake, with the fear of facing the consequences of their corruption and brutal massacres, and prospects of life off the gravy train.
They would rather be perceived as a pariah regime that retained power by rigging elections – than the alternative.
The most unlikely scenario: ZEC will announce Nelson Chamisa and his CCC winners of the presidential elections.
This scenario is unlikely to happen, considering that ZEC’s impartiality is already questionable.
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