Minister of Finance Tendai Biti and then Minister of Economic Development Elton Mangoma said the Movement for Democratic Change was ready for elections and even if there was a repeat of the 2008 violence and intimidation the MDC would win the elections.
Biti said “there is only one party ready for elections” and certainly there would be a repeat of ZANU-PF violence and intimidation of voters but the MDC’s preparations for the 2008 election were key to the MDC victory.
Biti and Mangoma did not endorse ending sanctions. Mangoma said ZANU-PF feared that if progress on the GPA “takes place while sanctions are in place, ZANU will have no basis for saying sanctions are the cause of (Zimbabwe’s) problems.”
He pleaded with United States embassy officials: “Please assist us to make sure that development takes hold and moves forward,” for that “is our greatest insurance”.
The embassy said while Biti’s and Mangoma’s insistence that ZANU-PF was grievously split and that hardliners had been sorely wounded might have basis in fact, they could be guilty of wishful thinking.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE774, MDC MINISTERS BITI AND MANGOMA BRIEF DONORS
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO5966
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0774/01 2711457
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281457Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4956
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 3056
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3169
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1598
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2432
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2801
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3217
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5662
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2349
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000774
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR M GAVIN
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM EFIN ECON ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MINISTERS BITI AND MANGOMA BRIEF DONORS
REF: HARARE 753
Classified By: CDA Donald Petterson for reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Minister of Finance Tendai Biti and
Minister of Economic Development Elton Mangoma met with
Western donor chiefs of mission and aid directors September
24 and briefed on political and economic issues. They
believe that ZANU-PF intransigence on the Global Political
Agreement (GPA) and actions such as media attacks on the MDC
and continuing farm invasions are reflective of a withering
ZANU-PF. The MDC is preparing for the next elections and,
even if there is a repeat of the 2008 violence and
intimidation, they believe that the MDC’s overwhelming
country-wide support will result in its victory. Turning to
economic matters, Biti and Mangoma said they would consult
with the IMF before determining how to use their Special
Drawing Rights (SDRs) but believed critical development needs
indicated substantial use for infrastructure. They also
will attempt to gain Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC)
relief. Finally, Biti and Mangoma support maintaining
sanctions; if economic progress is made despite continuing
sanctions, it will demonstrate that sanctions are not
responsible for Zimbabwe’s economic plight. END SUMMARY.
——————–
ZANU-PF on the Ropes
——————–
¶2. (SBU) Biti said the biggest problem facing the inclusive
government (IG) is political in nature. That ZANU-PF is “on
high alert” has been manifested in the violence of farm
invasions, vitriolic state media attacks on the MDC, and
inaction on reform measures. The “arrested transition” is
largely a result of tension within ZANU-PF, he said. The
“noise is coming from sectors in the party controlled by the
junta” – the Mugabe faction. Biti claimed that actions in
recent weeks are “reflective of the desperation of a losing
group.” He insisted that media attacks on Tsvangirai,
himself, and the MDC do not stem from a “homogeneous ZANU
position.”
¶3. (SBU) Donors should not conclude, said Biti, that “the
increasing decibels of the ZANU position” presage a failure
of the IG; to the contrary “it is the gasping of a losing
position.” He added, “The MDC is not going to collapse;
ZANU-PF won’t pull out, the (Mugabe) faction is not that
strong.”
¶4. (SBU) Like Tsvangirai (Ref), Biti and Mangoma believe
that the MDC will make progress on the GPA and eventually win
the next election. They base this belief on the fact that,
according to Biti, the “MDC has overwhelming support in the
country.” Biti remarked that “there is only one party ready
for elections.” Certainly there will be a repeat of ZANU-PF
violence and intimidation of voters. But their preparations
for the 2008 election were key to the MDC victory, and having
learned from the experiences of that election, they will be
even better prepared next time.
—————————-
On SDRs, HIPC, and Sanctions
QOn SDRs, HIPC, and Sanctions
—————————-
¶5. (SBU) Biti and Mangoma noted that while they are aware of
the IMF preference that much of recently released SDRs be
kept in reserve and eventually used for debt reduction,
whatever the IG stipulated for that use would be “a drop in
the bucket.” They believe the dire need for economic
stimulus supersedes keeping SDRs in reserve; therefore they
want to devote considerable SDRs to “issues of
HARARE 00000774 002 OF 002
infrastructure.” Addressing infrastructure needs and
creating lines of credit would get money into the economy.
They are also considering limited budget support to create a
more even flow of funds, although admitting they are “not
very keen” on this. In any event they will not take any
steps on the SDRs until they’ve had further consultations
with the IMF.
¶6. (SBU) Despite “venomous criticism” from ZANU-PF on their
intention to seek HIPC relief, they intend to “go that way.”
They are aware of the time-consuming and difficult process
involved, but deem HIPC relief necessary. Biti said the IG
would need help in getting through the process.
¶7. (SBU) Biti and Mangoma did not endorse ending sanctions.
Mangoma said ZANU-PF fears that if progress on the GPA “takes
place while sanctions are in place, ZANU will have no basis
for saying sanctions are the cause of (Zimbabwe’s) problems.”
He importuned, “Please assist us to make sure that
development takes hold and moves forward,” for that “is our
greatest insurance.” He and Biti cited the need for help in
agriculture, education, and health, but made a special plea
for addressing the water/sewage problem, which “must be
resolved.” to avoid a renewed outbreak of cholera.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶8. (C) While Biti’s and Mangoma’s insistence that ZANU-PF is
grievously split and that hardliners have been sorely wounded
might have basis in fact, they could be guilty of wishful
thinking. Their confidence in the long-term good fortune of
the MDC mirrors Tsvangirai’s and comes from solid evidence of
the party’s rising popularity vis-a-vis ZANU-PF’s growing
unpopularity. It seems to us, however, that the MDC leaders
could be running the risk of underestimating the survival
skills of their opponents. END COMMENT.
PETTERSON
(38 VIEWS)
