Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai was confident he would win the 2002 presidential elections and was more worried about the havoc by the war veterans than the military.
Speaking to a visiting United States delegation Tsvangirai said he would win between 65 and 70 percent of the vote depending on the voter turnout.
Asked whether he was confident that the military would abide by the election results if he won, Tsvangirai said he was more concerned about the likely reaction of war veterans around the country as they were being issued large numbers of weapons from the army’s arms depots.
Tsvangirai also pressed for the imposition of targeted personal sanctions as a warning -a “yellow card” -to the government of Zimbabwe to ensure that Zimbabweans were allowed to cast their votes freely and to abide by the election outcome.
He advocated the subsequent imposition of comprehensive sanctions -the red card – if the election was “subverted”.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 01HARARE3250, AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND
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310637Z Oct 01
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8507
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0155
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003250
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY MET WITH A WIDE RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS
AND ORGANIZATIONS OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC PRESIDENT
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND OTHER KEY
PLAYERS DURING A TWO-DAY VISIT TO HARARE OCTOBER 24-26. MANY OF
HIS INTERLOCUTORS INDICATED THAT GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED POLITICAL
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HAVE CONTINUED
UNABATED SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SEVERAL URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO INSIST
THAT THE GOZ MEET SPECIFIC MINIMUM ELECTION STANDARDS OR BE
PREPARED FOR THE FACT THAT THE ELECTION RESULT WOULD NOT BE
CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION OF
TARGETED SANCTIONS NOW, SAYING SUCH A MOVE COULD BE AN EFFECTIVE
WARNING TO THE GOZ ON THE NEED FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE
MDC LEADER CONFIRMED ONGOING LOW-LEVEL TALKS WITH ZANU-PF, BUT WAS
SKEPTICAL THEY WOULD LEAD ANYWHERE AS PRESIDENT MUGABE IS MORE
INTERESTED IN GOING IT ALONE THAN IN ENGAGING IN REAL DIALOGUE
ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (U) DURING HIS OCTOBER 24-26 VISIT TO HARARE, AF PRINCIPAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z
DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE MARK BELLAMY MET SEPARATELY
WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON
SANDURA, CATHOLIC PRIEST FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, LEADERS OF THE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND A RANGE OF CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS.
BELLAMY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AND POLITICAL
SECTION CHIEF.
FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI
———————–
¶3. (C) IN A CONVERSATION OVER BREAKFAST WITH FATHER FIDELIS
MUKONORI, LEADER OF ZIMBABWE’S JESUITS AND A LONG-TIME CONFIDANT
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE PDAS NOTED LITTLE PROGRESS IN
IMPLEMENTATION OF ABUJA, AND ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAD ANY
INTENTION OF HONORING ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS. YES, FIDELIS
REPONDED, BUT THEY HAD TO BE PROVIDED WITH POLITICAL COVER.
ABUJA, HE SAID, IS ABOUT MORE THAN COMPENSATION TO COMMERCIAL
FARMERS. IT MEANS POTENTIAL STABILITY TO THE GOZ, BY HOLDING OUT
THE PROSPECT OF ENSURING THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES ARE PROVIDED WITH
THE NECESSARY RESOURCES TO EARN A LIVING. THE GOZ, HE SAID,
REALIZES THAT IT HAS MADE SERIOUS MISTAKES, BUT IT IS NOT USED TO
BEGGING AND IS TRYING TO SAVE FACE. THE LAND ISSUE, MUKONORI
INSISTED, WILL NOT GO AWAY REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
¶4. (C) THE UNITED STATES, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN REPLIED, RECOGNIZES
THE IMPORTANCE OF LAND REFORM. IT WANTS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE BUT
WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THE PROCESS IS LEGAL, RATIONAL, AND ORDERLY.
BELLAMY AGREED, BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE USG IS MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT GOZ-SANCTIONED POLITICAL INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE WHICH
APPEARS DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE REMAINS IN
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z
OFFICE. THE USG, HE SAID, IS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW IT CAN PLAY A
CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES. SOME IN THE U.S., HE
REPORTED, ARE PRESSING FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL
SANCTIONS AS THE MOST APPROPRIATE U.S. RESPONSE. MUKONORI
EXPRESSED HIS VIEW THAT TARGETED SANCTIONS WOULD BE
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, AS THEY WOULD “MAKE MUGABE A HERO WITHIN HIS
PARTY.” BESIDES, MUGABE HAS BEEN “HARDENED BY INCARCERATIONS AND
WAR” AND WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SUCH MEASURES. HE
WARNED AGAINST DEMONIZING AN INDIVIDUAL, AND CLAIMED THAT THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WAS ILL-SERVED BY SYCOPHANTIC ADVISORS.
ASKED WHETHER MUGABE WOULD RESPECT THE ELECTION RESULT IF HE
LOSES, MUKONORI DID NOT ANSWER DIRECTLY. INSTEAD, HE REPORTED
THAT HE HAS BEEN CHAIRING LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE
MDC, IN WHICH HE HAS TRIED TO REASSURE BOTH SIDES THAT THEY HAVE A
FUTURE IF THEY LOSE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PROGRESS IN THESE
TALKS HAS BEEN “SLOW,” MUKONORI LAMENTED.
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA
———————-
¶5. (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA SAID HE HAD PREFERRED
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P 310637Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0156
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003250
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS
TO MEET AT THE EMBASSY TO AVOID THE INEVITABLE FLOOD OF QUESTIONS
HE WOULD HAVE RECEIVED IF U.S. DIPLOMATS HAD COME TO HIS OFFICE.
HE REFERRED TO THESE AS “DIFFICULT TIMES” FOR THE JUDICIARY AND
RECOUNTED NUMEROUS INCIDENTS OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST JUDGES,
INCLUDING THE INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT BY WAR VETERANS.
SANDURA SAID THE INTIMIDATION INTENSIFIED AFTER THE COURT DECLARED
UNCONSTITUTIONAL THE GOVERNMENT’S FAST TRACK LAND EFFORT IN
DECEMBER 2000. THE COURT’S RULING, SANDURA INSISTED, CANNOT BE
CRITICIZED ON LEGAL GROUNDS, ONLY ON THE POLITICAL BASIS THAT IT
DOES NOT PERMIT THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IT WANTS. THE
INTIMIDATION, HE SAID, WAS DESINED TO PRESSURE JUDGES INTO
ISSUING SYMPATHETIC RULINGS; WHEN THAT DID NOT WORK, THE GOZ TRIED
TO USH SANDURA AND HIS COLLEAGUES OUT INDIVIDUALLY.
¶6. (C) SANDURA SAID HE IS THE MOST SENIOR JUDGE N ZIMBABWE,
AFTER JUSTICE MCNALLY, WHO RETIRES I DECEMBER, AND SHOULD HAVE
BEEN THE NATURAL CHOICE FOR THE CHIEF JUSTICE POSITION AFTER THE
FORCED RETIREMENT OF ANTHONY GUBBAY. INSTEAD, “FOR OBVIOUS
REASONS,” THE GOZ APPOINTED GODFREY CHIDYAUSIKU, WHO IS “MORE A
POLITICIAN THAN A JUDGE” AND WHO IS JUNIOR TO ALL OF THE OTHER
JUDGES ON THE SUPREME COURT.
¶7. (C) SANDURA NOTED THAT THE GOZ HAD RECENTLY APPOINTED THREE
NEW JUSTICES TO THE SUPREME COURT. DID THE GOVERNMENT NOW HAVE A
COURT IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH, BELLAMY ASKED? TWO OF THE NEW
APPOINTEES — JUSTICES MALABA AND CHEDA — HAVE BEEN ALLOCATED
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z
LAND UNDER FAST TRACK, SANDURA POINTED OUT. HOW COULD INDIVIDUALS
WHO HAVE BENEFITTED FROM A PROGRAM ADJUDICATE THE LEGALITY OF THAT
PROGRAM, SANDURA ASKED? THAT SAID, HE WAS NOT CONVINCED THAT
MALABA AND CHEDA WOULD RULE WITH CHIDYAUSIKU IN EVERY CASE,
ALTHOUGH HE ASSESSED JUSTICE VERNANDA ZIYAMBI TOBE FIRMLY IN THE
NEW CHIEF JUSTICE’S CAMP. SANDURA NOTED THAT THE COURT, IN WHICH
FOUR OF THE FIV JUSTICES WHO SAT WERE RECENT APPOINTEES, ISSUED
AN INTERIM ORDER ALLOWING THE GOZ TO PROCEED WITH CQUIRING FARMS
LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITIONPRIOR TO JUNE 30. HE PREDICTED
THAT CHIDYAUSIKU WOULD BIDE HIS TIME AND NOT ISSUE A FINAL RULING
N THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK PROGRAM NTIL SOMETIME
NEXT YEAR, MUCH CLOSER TO THE PRESDENTIAL ELECTION. ASKED
WHETHER HE INTENDED TO EMAIN ON THE COURT, DESPITE ITS
POLITICIZATION, SANDURA REPLIED IN THE AFFIRMATIVE.
LUNCH WITH USID CORE PARTNERS
——————————
¶8. (C) USAID’S CORE PARTNERS, COMPRISING LEADIN CIVIL SOCIETY
ORGANIZATIONS, DESCRIBED CONTINUIG POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND
SUGGESTED SPECIFIC DIPLOMATIC STEPS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
OUGHT TO URSUE. TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF ONE OF ZIMBABWE’SMOST
PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS, AMANITRUST, EXPRESSED
CONCERN ABOUT THE ABUJA AGREEMET’S FOCUS ON LAND. WINNING THE
ELECTION IS THE OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF
ZIMBABE, AND ABUJA IS MERELY A DELAYING TACTIC FROM HARAE’S
PERSPECTIVE. THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL VIOLENC HAS NOT DECREASED
ONE IOTA SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, REELER
ASSERTED. LYDIA ZIGOMO, HEAD OF ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS FOR HUMAN
RIGHTS, AGREED. SHE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ IS ESTABLISHING
“REEDUCATION CAMPS” IN RURAL AREAS WHERE GIRLS FROM NEARBY AREAS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z
ARE FORCED TO SERVE AS COOKS AND SUBJECTED TO SEXUAL ABUSE. ZIGOMO
ADDED AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT THE GOZ IS CONDUCTING AN
AGGRESSIVE CLAMPDOWN ON NGOS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES NATIONWIDE.
REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT
NETWORK (ZESN), SAID HE HAD ADVISED NGOS TO OPEN OFF-SHORE BANK
ACCOUNTS AS A PALLIATIVE MEASURE IN CASE THE GOZ DECIDES TO TAMPER
WITH THEIR DOMESTIC ACCOUNTS.
¶9. (C) SARAH CHIUMBU, DIRECTOR OF THE MEDIA INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN
AFRICA (MISA), SHARED HER CONCERN THAT INFORMATION MINISTER
JONATHAN MOYO CONTINUES TO USE THE STATE MEDIA AS HIS PERSONAL
VEHICLE AND THAT EQUAL ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR ALL PARTIES IS AN
UNACHIEVABLE OBJECTIVE UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. CHIUMBU ALSO
EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT ONGOING HARASSMENT OF JOURNALISTS, A
PARTICULARLY SERIOUS PROBLEM IN RURAL AREAS, AND ABOUT
GOVERNMENT’S INTENTION TO BAR NGOS FROM CONDUCTING VOTER
EDUCATION. EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL
RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF), SAID THE RECENTLY-PASSED CITIZENSHIP
ACT AMENDMENT, WHICH REQUIRES THOSE HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO
RENOUNCE THEIR CLAIM TO CITIZENSHIP FROM ZIMBABWE OR THE SECOND
CONFIDENTIAL
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NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
——————37C2E5 310730Z /38
P 310637Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0157
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003250
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS
COUNTRY, COULD DISENFRANCHISE ONE-AND-A-HALF MILLION PEOPLE,
MOSTLY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS. THE LRF HAS, THEREFORE, FILED A
CLASS-ACTION LAWSUIT CHALLENGING THE LAW’S CONSTITUTIONALITY.
¶10. (C) REELER URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DELIVER A
MESSAGE TO THE GOZ, IN THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE TERMS, THAT THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST MEET CERTAIN MINIMUM STANDARDS OR ELSE
THE OUTCOME WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. SUCH A MESSAGE
COULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE, REELER THOUGHT, SINCE LEGITIMACY IS
IMPORTANT TO MUGABE. HE NOTED THAT MOST ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS ARE
WAITING ANXIOUSLY TO CAST BALLOTS NEXT YEAR, AND THEY WANT THEIR
VOTES TO COUNT. IF THE ELECTION IS STOLEN, THEREFORE, THERE COULD
BE AN UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE. MATCHABA-HOVE AGREED, AND ASSERTED
THAT A SLIM VICTORY BY EITHER PARTY COULD SPARK SERIOUS UNREST.
HE POINTED OUT THAT THE GOZ HAS DIFFICULTY SAYING “NO” TO OTHER
AFRICANS AND ENCOURAGED THE UNITED STATES TO PRESS NIGERIAN
PRESIDENT OBASANJO TO CONTINUE PLAYING AN ACTIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE
ROLE IN ZIMBABWE.
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
————————
¶11. (C) COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK
TOLD BELLAMY THE CFU WELCOMED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, AS IT PROVIDED
EVIDENCE OF GOZ POLITICAL COMMITMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z
LACKING, AND SPELLED OUT BROADER PRINCIPLES WHICH, IF ADHERED TO,
WOULD MAKE ZIMBABWE LIVEABLE FOR ALL CITIZENS ONCE AGAIN. THE
PROBLEM, HOWEVER, IS THAT ABUJA HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED.
ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE SITUATION ON COMMERCIAL FARMS IS MUCH
WORSE THAN ON SEPTEMBER 6, THE DAY OF THE ABUJA MEETING. FARM
INVASIONS AND PARTICULARLY WORK STOPPAGES CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS
PROBLEM, HE SAID. BELLAMY ASKED WHETHER THE CFU’S MEMBERS WERE
ABLE TO FARM, DESPITE THE OCCUPATIONS, AND HOW SERIOUSLY OVERALL
PRODUCTION IS BEING AFFECTED. THERE IS A RANGE OF SITUATIONS,
HASLUCK REPLIED. SOME FARMERS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN OFF THEIR
PROPERTIES COMPLETELY, WHILE OTHERS ARE TRYING TO FARM AROUND THE
OCCUPIERS. CFU DEPUTY DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES ADDED THAT MORE
THAN ONE-THIRD OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO
UNDERTAKE NORMAL FARMING OPERATIONS, WITH CUTBACKS RANGING FROM 10
TO 100 PERCENT.
¶12. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHAT WOULD CONVINCE THE CFU THAT THE
GOZ IS SERIOUS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING ABUJA. WOULD REMOVING OCCUPIERS
BE SUFFICIENT? THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT EVEN HAVE TO GO THAT FAR,
CFU PRESIDENT COLIN CLOETE REPLIED. SIMPLY ALLOWING FARMING
OPERATIONS TO PROCEED UNHINDERED WOULD BE A HUGE STEP FORWARD.
ASKED WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD DO THAT IT WAS NOT
ALREADY DOING, CFU VICE-PRESIDENT WILLIAM HUGHES SAID IT IS
CRUCIAL TO PRESS THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY THE RULE OF LAW, A GOAL
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. CLOETE ADDED THAT
THE GOZ IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ONLY ON THAT PORTION OF THE AGREEMENT
REQUIRING THE BRITISH TO COME UP WITH FUNDS FOR LAND REFORM, WHILE
CHOOSING TO IGNORE THE REFERENCES TO RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW.
VOWLES NOTED THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A CREDIBLE LAND REFORM
PROGRAM ON THE TABLE — THE ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE
— UNDER WHICH FARMERS HAVE OFFERED THE GOZ ONE MILLION HECTARES
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z
FOR RESETTLEMENT. THE GOZ, HE SAID, HAS ACCEPTED THE PLAN IN
PRINCIPLE AND IT HAS BEEN ENDORSED BY THE WORLD BANK AND UNDP.
ASKED WHY THIS PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, HASLUCK SAID THE
GOVERNMENT IS NOT INTERESTED IN GENUINE LAND REFORM. THE FAST
TRACK EFFORT, HE SAID, IS ALL ABOUT COERCING VOTES FOR THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI
——————————-
¶13. (C) MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION
OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS A WARNING — A “YELLOW CARD” —
TO THE GOZ TO ENSURE THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE ALLOWED TO CAST THEIR
VOTES FREELY AND TO ABIDE BY THE ELECTION OUTCOME. TSVANGIRAI
ADVOCATED THE SUBSEQUENT IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE SANCTIONS —
THE RED CARD — IF THE ELECTION IS “SUBVERTED.” ASKED HIS VIEW ON
THE VALUE OF DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF TO AGREE ON
A WAY FORWARD, TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE NEEDS A POLITICAL CULTURE
WHICH PERMITS THAT KIND OF DIALOGUE. UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT
MUGABE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE MDC. TSVANGIRAI
SAID HE HAD WRITTEN TO HIM TWICE PROPOSING SUCH A DIALOGUE ON
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——————37C2E7 310730Z /38
P 310637Z OCT 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0158
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003250
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 04 OF 04 310726Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11
SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND
OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS
CRITICAL NATIONAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND, THE ECONOMY, AND
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, BUT MUGABE HAS NOT RESPONDED. THE MDC
PRESIDENT ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN THE TWO
PARTIES ARE GOING ON, BROKERED BY FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, BUT
THEY ARE EXPLORATORY AND HAVE ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE.
¶14. (C) BELLAMY REPORTED THAT THERE NOW IS MUCH MORE ANXIETY
AMONG ZIMBABWE’S NEIGHBORS THAN THERE WAS DURING HIS MARCH 2001
VISIT. MALAWIAN PRESIDENT MULUZI, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS QUITE
OUTSPOKEN ABOUT HIS CONCERNS AND BELIEVES MUCH MORE PRESSURE MUST
BE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE GOZ, PARTICULARLY ON THE IMPORTANCE OF
ENSURING FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD SEEN A
DRAMATIC CHANGE AMONG SADC MEMBERS, WHO NOW HAVE A MUCH BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF DEVELOPMENTS HERE, AND HE PRAISED SADC PRESIDENTS
FOR BEING MORE ATTENTIVE TO ZIMBABWE’S DIFFICULTIES. ASKED
WHETHER THE MDC IS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH SADC NEIGHBORS,
TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY ARE IN “CONSTANT” COMMUNICATION WITH THE
SIPDIS
SOUTH AFRICANS, VIA THEIR EMBASSY IN HARARE. THE OTHER EMBASSIES,
THOUGH, HAVE “KEPT THEIR DISTANCE.”
¶15. (C) TSVANGIRAI CONFIRMED THAT HE CONTINUES TO HOLD DISCREET
DISCUSSIONS WITH MILITARY OFFICERS. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS
CONFIDENT THAT THE MILITARY WOULD ABIDE BY THE ELECTION RESULTS IF
HE WERE TO WIN, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WAS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
LIKELY REACTION OF WAR VETERANS AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHO ARE BEING
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ISSUED LARGE NUMBERS OF WEAPONS FROM THE ARMY’S ARMS DEPOTS. THE
MDC PRESIDENT PREDICTED THAT HE WOULD WIN 65-70 PERCENT OF THE
NATIONAL VOTE NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON TURNOUT.
COMMENT
——-
¶16. (C) BELLAMY’S INTERLOCUTORS PROVIDED A COMPELLING PICTURE OF
ONGOING POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, DESPITE
THE GOZ’S COMMITMENTS AT ABUJA. WE AGREE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE’S
OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE IS WINNING THE ELECTION, AND THAT FAST TRACK
IS BEING WIELDED PRIMARILY AS A TOOL OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST
SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. IN THAT LIGHT, WE WOULD ARGUE IT
IS CRITICAL THAT WE SECURE CONSENSUS AMONG KEY PLAYERS –SADC, THE
EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH — ON MINIMUM STANDARDS WE EXPECT THE
GOVERNMENT TO ADHERE TO IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION, AND PRESENT
THOSE EXPECTATIONS IN A UNIFIED DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TO THE GOZ.
SINCE THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM ENDORSED AN EXCELLENT SET OF
ELECTORAL STANDARDS IN MARCH 2001 AT A MEETING ATTENDED BY SPEAKER
OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, TWO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT FROM
ZANU-PF AND ONE FROM THE MDC, WE WOULD RECOMMEND THAT OUR DEMARCHE
DRAW EXCLUSIVELY FROM THAT DOCUMENT. SUCH AN APPROACH TO THE GOZ
SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT AN ELECTION WHICH DOES NOT MEET THOSE
STANDARDS WILL BE CONSIDERED ILLEGITIMATE. SADC PARTICIPATION IN
SUCH AN EFFORT IS CRUCIAL, AS MUGABE DOES CARE WHAT HIS NEIGHBORS
THINK, AND MIGHT PAUSE AT THE PROSPECT OF ACHIEVING VICTORY AT ALL
COSTS IF ONE OF THE COSTS IS SADC’S REJECTION OF THE ELECTION
OUTCOME.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONFIDENTIAL
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