African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma’s advisor Mo Shaik told United States embassy officials in Pretoria that the United States should not hold any notion that Zuma would favour Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
At the same time South African President Thabo Mbeki should not assume that the ANC would favour Robert Mugabe.
“If the US thinks we’re going to install Tsvangirai, they’re dead wrong,” he said.
He also said that Mugabe would have to be part of a Government of National Unity, especially now that the MDC had pulled out of the run-off.
Tsvangirai had said he favoured a government of national unity which he would lead but Mugabe should retire.
“If the US wants democracy, then you have nothing to complain about; MDC did not win a majority in the first round and now have pulled out of the run-off. The MDC now has no recourse,” Shaik said.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA1358, ANC PLANS TO MEDIATE ZIMBABWE CRISIS
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Reference ID |
Created |
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Classification |
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VZCZCXRO1221
PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #1358/01 1751559
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231559Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4848
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE PRIORITY 3677
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY 5719
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY 9917
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001358
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018
SUBJECT: ANC PLANS TO MEDIATE ZIMBABWE CRISIS
PRETORIA 00001358 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. PolOff met on 23 June with Mo Shaik, one of
ANC President Jacob Zuma’s advisors, to discuss the ANC’s
plans to mediate the Zimbabwe crisis, which essentially
rehashes Mbeki’s current proposals for a government of
national unity. Shaik said in no uncertain terms that the
ANC will be neutral and that the US should not expect the ANC
to favor MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai in any way. He also
added that Mugabe would be part of a GNU, especially now that
the MDC pulled out of the run-off. However, Shaik admitted
the ANC has no leverage over Mugabe or ZANU-PF to negotiate a
settlement and is operating under the assumption that ZANU-PF
will act in good faith as the former apartheid regime did
during South Africa’s transition. MDC will likely initially
welcome ANC involvement, but once they realize that the ANC
only offers the same old wine in a new bottle, they will
likely reject ANC mediation as they have Mbeki’s. Post
believes the most likely outcome is that Mugabe will ignore
the ANC just as he has Mbeki. Post defers to Embassy Harare
and Department, but Zimbabwe might be best served if neither
South Africa nor the ANC were the SADC mediator. END
SUMMARY.
—————————————
ANC’S MAKES A NEUTRAL PLAN FOR ZIMBABWE
—————————————
¶2. (C) PolOff met on 23 June with Mo Shaik, one of ANC
President Jacob Zuma’s advisors, to discuss the ANC’s plans
to mediate the Zimbabwe crisis. With the help of Norwegian
funding, Shaik said Zuma will soon embark on a tour around
SADC to convince leaders that Zuma and the ANC have a role to
play. He said the ANC will appeal to liberation movements
within SADC by reminding them what they fought for. When
asked what Mbeki will think of all this, Shaik said that they
will do this in conjunction with Mbeki. “We’re not going to
let anyone — Mugabe or the US — for that matter, pit the
ANC against Mbeki or vice-versa,” he warned.
¶3. (C) Shaik also said that he and “others” have been working
non-stop for the past three days on a detailed plan that is
“principled.” In other words, Shaik said, the United States
should not hold any notion that Zuma will favor MDC Leader
Morgan Tsvangirai in any way, just as President Mbeki should
not assume that the ANC will favor Robert Mugabe. “If the US
thinks we’re going to install Tsvangirai, they’re dead
wrong,” he said. He also added that Mugabe will have to be
part of a GNU, especially now that the MDC pulled out of the
run-off. Shaik also asked PolOff to convey in the strongest
terms the ANC’s request that the United States be quiet on
the matter for now to give the ANC room to negotiate.
————-
THE MECHANICS
————-
¶4. (C) Shaik said the ANC has a six-part plan to solving the
crisis. First and foremost, the ANC wants to stop all
political violence in Zimbabwe. After violence has stopped,
they will negotiate with the security services, including the
CIO, police, and military to accept a GNU. Shaik admitted
this will be no easy feat as the ANC Generals report on
violence in Zimbabwe concluded that the military would launch
a coup d’etat should MDC win the run-off. Once the security
services are on board, they will enter into a 2-3 year GNU
Qservices are on board, they will enter into a 2-3 year GNU
called a Transitional Executive Authority (TEA), like South
Africa’s own Transitional Executive Committee during the
transition). The TEA will then work on four things during
the transition: creating free and fair conditions for a new
election (including equal access to media, freedom of speech,
right to campaign, and demilitarizing the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission), deciding who would be prosecuted for what crimes
during the Mugabe regime, stabilizing the economy and lifting
international sanctions, and last ensuring all humanitarian
needs are met through international aid donors.
¶5. (C) Shaik anticipates three main sticking points. First,
who will be prosecuted will be contentious. Though he said
he would let Zimbabweans decide how they wanted to move
ahead, either with a Truth and Reconciliation-like set-up or
otherwise, he also said generals would have to be guaranteed
a “soft exit” before they would agree to a TEA. Second, he
said he expected the U.S. to refuse to lift international
sanctions against regime hardliners. Last and most
PRETORIA 00001358 002.2 OF 002
contentious, he knows Mugabe’s role in a GNU would not be
acceptable to the U.S. PolOff expressed US concerns that
given the regime’s behavior, Mugabe should not be rewarded
with a position in a GNU, that Mugabe has lied in the past
about how long he will stay in power, and that Mugabe and
regime hardliners are likely to do everything in their power
to emasculate the MDC in a GNU. Though he agreed with all of
these points, he said he does not see a way around it now
that the MDC has pulled out unless both Mugabe and Tsvangirai
agree not to be part of the new government.
—————————–
MDC SHOULDN’T HAVE PULLED OUT
—————————–
¶6. (C) PolOff elicited Shaik’s views on MDC’s refusal to
participate in the run-off. He started out by saying, “if
the US wants democracy, then you have nothing to complain
about; MDC did not win a majority in the first round and now
have pulled out of the run-off. The MDC now has no
recourse.” Shaik, however, added that the ANC did not and
would not have advised them to pull out, believing they would
have had more leverage to call and enter into a GNU after a
flawed run-off election. As for the ANC’s own leverage,
Shaik admitted as he has in the past that the ANC does not
have any particular leverage over Mugabe or ZANU-PF. PolOff
asked what happens if ZANU-PF now declares victory and
doesn’t want to talk about a GNU, Shaik simply said, “then
they don’t and Zimbabwe stays as it is with Mugabe as
President for another five years.”
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶7. (C) The ANC’s plan for Zimbabwe mirrors its own model
during the transition: cease all political violence, level
the playing field, set conditions for free and fair
elections, lift international sanctions, and decide on how to
handle past crimes. However, the ANC has failed to realize
that Zimbabwe is not South Africa and that Mugabe is no de
Klerk. The first step was a willingness to listen to the
people when the former apartheid regime allowed a free and
fair referendum on apartheid, which we do not see in
Zimbabwe.
¶8. (C) Post believes that Shaik accurately reflected the
ANC’s “plan.” Unfortunately, the plan is a list of outcomes
rather than actions that will achieve them. Embassy Harare
is in position to judge ZANU-PF, but we believe that Shaik’s
own response to the question concerning a Mugabe declaration
of victory and refusal to talk — “then they don’t and
Zimbabwe stays as it is with Mugabe as President for another
five years,” is exactly where the ANC plan will wind up.
¶9. (C) Our discussions with MDC contacts lead us to believe
that the MDC will initially welcome ANC involvement.
However, once they realize that the ANC only offers the same
old wine in a new bottle, they will likely reject ANC
mediation as they have Mbeki’s. We defer to Embassy Harare
and the Department, but Zimbabwe might be best served if
neither South Africa nor the ANC are not the SADC mediator.
TEITELBAUM
(22 VIEWS)
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