This is the question posed by Aubrey Matshiqi, a research fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation in South Africa in an opinion piece in today’s Business Day.
Zimbabwe’s elections, only nine days away now, have been dogged by controversy, first about the date because necessary reforms had not been implemented, then about the voters’ roll, then about the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s preparedness.
But despite the number of controversial reports being churned out by civic organisations and statements from Britain and the United States, the African Union and the Southern African Development Community have cleared the way for the elections.
Matshiqi says the Movement for Democratic Change, one of the main contenders, has been expecting too much because ruling parties seldom agree to an election date unless it maximises their chances of victory.
Contrary to popular perception, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front is currently not the ruling party as Zimbabwe is being run by a coalition government.
But this perception has been perpetuated to give the impression that ZANU-PF leader Robert Mugabe is essentially still ruling the country.
Indeed, he might be, but this is largely due to the weaknesses of the MDC that he exploited because the MDC had the majority of seats but were outmanoeuvred by Mugabe at the formation of the inclusive government.
Matshiqi asks a crucial question:”What will the MDC do if it loses an election that international observers deem to be administratively flawed but not as undemocratic and politically flawed as the 2008 poll? Will the MDC accept the result if it wins such an election? Is an election free and fair only if it is won by the MDC?”
He concludes: “Ultimately, I hope it is democracy that will triumph in Zimbabwe.”
The Helen Suzman Foundation was among the first to conduct polls on Zimbabwe most of which showed that people were turning against the ZANU-PF in favour of the MDC.
Some of the reports even predicted a victory for the MDC as early as 2 000 and then after its loss, claimed the elections had been rigged.
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