The United States embassy ruled out a Morgan Tsvangirai victory and a government of national unity in the 2008 elections arguing that President Robert Mugabe could announce himself the winner or the election would have no outright winner with a run-off most likely.
The embassy came out with four scenarios, three days after the elections, and analysed each scenario and what embassy staff were expected to do.
The first scenario was Mugabe declaring himself the winner. The embassy said although there was overwhelming evidence to the contrary, this was possible.
The second scenario was Tsvangirai being declared winner. The embassy said this was highly unlikely. In the event, it argued that there could be a military coup within 48 hours.
The third scenario was neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai winning. The embassy said this was the most likely scenario.
The last scenario was the formation of a government of nation unity, which it ruled out.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE268, SITUATION REPORT: EAC DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE ELECTION
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VZCZCXRO1464
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0268/01 0931722
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021722Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2673
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000268
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
FOR DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA
AF/S
S/CT
CA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
SUBJECT: SITUATION REPORT: EAC DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE ELECTION
SCENARIOS
REF: A. HARARE 259 AND PREV
¶B. HARARE 233
¶C. HARARE 213
Classified By: JAMES D. MCGEE, AMBASSADOR, REASON 1.4 (A) (D) and (G)
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Harare EAC met on April 2 to discuss
scenarios that could ensue once election results are
announced. DCM chaired the meeting, which was attended by
RSO, RPOL, POL, PAS, CONS, AID, DAO, MGT, and CDC. The EAC
considered a runoff the most probable outcome at the moment,
but acknowledged continued uncertainty. The EAC reviewed
tripwires and reactions to various scenarios. The EAC
recommended to the Ambassador that the Embassy maintain its
current posture of conducting normal business while
maintaining heightened awareness. The Ambassador concurred.
END SUMMARY.
¶2. (SBU) RSO began the meeting by reviewing current security
precautions in effect. These include:
– RSO will continue its patrols of the city and high density
areas in order to provide an early warning of security force
deployments, large gatherings and other disturbances.
– Embassy employees should remain vigilant and continue to
have their radios on and with them at all times.
– Embassy employees should utilize extreme caution when
traveling locally, and should avoid and report any large
gatherings of people, police or other unusual activity or
disturbances.
– MREs and water have been moved from the warehouse and
staged at the assembly areas.
– All Embassy GOV,s will be kept fully fueled. Employees
were also instructed to keep their vehicles at least half
full.
– Embassy employees were reminded to continue to conserve
water.
– Employees were reminded to carry their diplomatic card
with them at all times.
– Clearance for non-official travel inside Zimbabwe will
continue to be on a case-by-case basis and cleared by the RSO
and Front Office.
– Post will continue to strictly review country clearance
requests.
The EAC agreed that these should be continued. RSO will
reissue the security notice advising employees to maintain
heightened vigilance.
¶3. (C) The EAC discussed three election scenarios, in each
case considering risks, timing, tripwires, precautions and
responses. In addition to the steps below, Post would issue
appropriate security notices and warden messages in each case.
SCENARIO I:
Despite the existence of compelling evidence to the contrary,
President Mugabe declares that he won the March 29 election.
The EAC considered this possible.
Risk A:
Opposition protests break out and security forces react,
provoking violence. Embassy employees or Amcits risk getting
caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Timing: Spontaneous, greatest immediately after announcement.
Tripwires: Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announcement
of Mugabe victory, increased security force deployment, large
groups sighted in streets
Reaction: Upon learning of a ZEC announcement of Mugabe’s
victory, Embassy immediately cuts back to limited operations,
with essential functions continuing but other employees told
to stay at home. All employees are advised to stay home in
the evenings. Closure of CDC and Public Affairs Section,
which are on prime demonstration routes. RSO patrols and
provides further advice on security as incidents unfold.
Suspension of country clearance for TDY visitors.
Further considerations: The EAC would remain attentive to
how the situation develops and consider further steps, such
as drawdown, if the breakdown in order is sustained and
widespread.
HARARE 00000268 002 OF 003
Risk B:
Mugabe purges elements of ZANU-PF considered disloyal and
ZANU on ZANU violence breaks out. Embassy employees or
Amcits risk getting caught in the wrong place at the wrong
time.
Timing: Within weeks.
Tripwires: Open source reporting, intel.
Reaction: Heightened awareness, with other responses
depending on the situation. Such outbreaks are likely to be
localized but could escalate if those being purged are able
to muster support.
Risk C:
Mugabe blames Western interference for his near-defeat and
retaliates against Western Embassies and interests. Post
thinks it is highly unlikely that this would include
unleashing violent protests against Embassies or Western
companies, but cannot entirely rule it out.
Timing: Any time after consolidation of power–likely months.
Tripwires: Increasingly virulent anti-western rhetoric,
declarations that Western diplomats are PNG, reduced
cooperation on security and other matters.
Reaction: Depending on the situation, drawdown.
SCENARIO II:
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission declares that Morgan
Tsvangirai won the March 29 election. The EAC considered
SIPDIS
this unlikely.
Risk:
Security forces mount a coup.
Timing: First 48 hours.
Tripwires: Unit movements, intel reporting.
Reaction: Standfast, temporarily suspend Embassy operations,
consider drawdown depending on developments.
Other risks: The EAC also considered the risk of violent
reactions to opposition celebrations or of ZANU-PF
retaliation against Western interests. Neither was thought
to pose a significant risk to Embassy employees or Amcits,
though all would be advised to use caution during the period
when celebrations occur.
SCENARIO III:
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission declares that no candidate
won a majority and Tsvangirai and Mugabe will face each other
in a runoff. The EAC believes this is currently the most
likely scenario.
Risk A:
ZANU-PF employs violence and intimidation throughout the
country to assure itself of victory. Americans and Embassy
employees risk getting caught in the wrong place at the wrong
time.
Timing: 21 days or 90 days (SEPTEL).
Tripwires: Reports of violence from opposition activists and
NGOs, government refusal to accredit independent observers
for the runoff election.
Reactions: Evaluate all in-country travel; approve only if
mission critical or low risk. Screen country clearance
requests, deferring nonessential visits. Evaluate whether
and where Embassy election observers can safely deploy.
Risk B:
Mugabe blames Western interference for his near-defeat and
retaliates against Western Embassies and interests.
HARARE 00000268 003 OF 003
See above, Scenario I, Risk C.
Risk C:
Security forces mount a coup.
See above, Scenario II, Risk A.
Risk D:
ZANU on ZANU violence or MDC-ZANU clashes break out.
See above, Scenario I, Risk B.
SCENARIO IV:
A Government of National Unity is formed as a result of
negotiations and/or Mugabe’s resignation is negotiated. The
EAC considered this very unlikely.
Risk: The EAC considered that this scenario posed a low to
negligible risk.
¶4. (SBU) The EAC considered that pending an announcement by
the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the Mission’s current
security posture is appropriate. The Ambassador concurred.
MCGEE
(21 VIEWS)
