United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Joseph Sullivan said former Finance Minister Simba Makoni was a breath of fresh air. “He never feeds us his party’s tired rhetoric, but freely acknowledges the depth of the crises facing Zimbabwe and has good ideas about how to resolve them.”
The ambassador said his public candour and required solutions had earned him dismissal from the government but he had begun to gain popularity since his departure from government.
Makoni had just briefed the ambassador about succession within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front and the government’s new economic measures which he said had been supported by everyone except Jonathan Moyo.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 03HARARE450, ZIMBABWE: SIMBA MAKONI ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000450
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER
BANGKOK FOR WDAYTON
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: SIMBA MAKONI ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION
REF: A) HARARE 409 B) HARARE 433 C) HARARE 347
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).
Summary
——–
¶1. (C) Former Finance Minister Simba Makoni said the
recently-announced modest fuel hike and announcement of an
export support mechanism were supported by every ZANU-PF
politburo member except Information Minister Jonathan Moyo,
but the measures were unlikely to have much of an effect on
Zimbabwe’s imploding economy. Makoni acknowledged ongoing
discussions within the ruling party about presidential
succession, but said these were unlikely to lead anywhere
until President Mugabe endorses them. Asked whether it was
possible to forestall financial sanctions with a bilateral
dialogue, the Ambassador emphasized that ZANU-PF would have
to be prepared to address all issues of mutual concern,
including the legitimacy of the current Zimbabwean
government. Since his dismissal as Finance Minister in 2002,
a growing number of ruling party insiders are convinced that
Makoni is the only individual capable of resolving Zimbabwe’s
political and economic crises and ensuring ZANU-PF’s
continued hold on power. End Summary.
Recent economic measures
————————
¶2. (C) On February 27, the Ambassador and polchief met with
former Finance Minister — and serving member of the ZANU-PF
Politburo — Simba Makoni in the business office he runs with
his wife. Asked about the significance of recent economic
steps announced by the GOZ — including the modest fuel price
hike and a new export support mechanism — Makoni said the
increasing desperation of Zimbabwe’s economic decline had
finally forced the Government’s hand. These steps were long
overdue but nothing new — he had pressed for them while at
Finance. Interestingly, he said virtually everyone in the
Politburo supported them this time, including previously
vociferous opponents such as Minister for Agriculture Joseph
Made. The lone holdout, according to Makoni, had been chief
ZANU-PF propagandist Jonathan Moyo, but he had been
overruled. Makoni feared that the recent steps were too
little too late and would have little impact on this
country’s economic implosion. The doubling of fuel prices,
for instance, would have little effect on fuel availability
— it would simply reduce the GOZ’s subsidy obligation by a
small percentage.
Succession
———-
¶3. (C) Makoni acknowledged that there are ongoing discreet
discussions among senior ZANU-PF insiders about presidential
succession, which seem to have more urgency than similar
conversations in the past. This issue, however, remains very
much on the “side table” and those pushing it most actively
do not appear prepared yet to place it on the “main table.”
Makoni dismissed recent speculation that some moderate ruling
party figures might form a third political party. Most of
his ruling party colleagues, he claimed, accept the need for
a “broader political consensus.” Makoni insisted, however,
that “with all due respect to the courage and conviction of
our MDC counterparts,” political change in Zimbabwe would
emerge from within ZANU-PF. That may be the case, the
Ambassador commented, but the longer the country’s crises are
allowed to go on, the more likely it will be that Zimbabweans
simply will want ZANU-PF to go. Makoni concurred with that
assessment. The Ambassasor noted the slew of press reports
that two primary factions have formed within ZANU: one led
by Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is clearly
working to position himself as Mugabe’s successor, and the
other one comprising those who oppose Mnangagwa but who
appear not to have settled on a single candidate. Makoni
nodded but offered no comment.
¶4. (C) According to Makoni, President Mugabe is ensuring
that, on succession, he can “have his cake and eat it, too.”
Although the Zimbabwean president regularly insists that the
party must choose his successor, there is limited precedent
for this in ZANU-PF’s history. In the late 70’s, when
Ndabaningi Sithole left the presidency of ZANU-PF, a small
group of party insiders met under a tree in Mozambique and
chose Mugabe as the successor, a decision that was
subsequently rubber-stamped by a party congress. The lesson,
Makoni said, is that the party will not make active plans for
succession until Mugabe gives the go-ahead, a step he has not
yet taken. Makoni said the ruling party’s old guard actually
comprises a very small group: Mugabe, Vice-Presidents
Muzenda and Msika, party chairman John Nkomo, Minister of
Defense Sydney Sekeramayi, politburo member and former
defense forces chief Solomon Mujuru, and Minister of Rural
Resources Joyce Mujuru. Makoni described the latter four as
open-minded individuals who realize the depth of Zimbabwe’s
crises and the need to address them. It is really the first
three, he said — Mugabe, Muzenda, and Msika — who form the
“crust keeping the rest of us down and that we need to break
through.”
U.S.-Zimbabwe relations
———————–
¶5. (C) Raising recent press reports of looming U.S.
financial sanctions on Zimbabwean leaders, Makoni asked
whether it was possible to forestall such a move by having “a
quiet conversation with us.” The Ambassador replied that he
is always willing to talk to anyone but cautioned that, for
any discussions to lead to improved bilateral relations
between the United States and Zimbabwe, there has to be a
willingness within ZANU to address all issues of mutual
concern, including the legitimacy of the Zimbabwean
government. Makoni took the point but cautioned, without
elaboration, that progress was likelier if less contentious
issues were addressed first.
Comment
——-
¶6. (C) Among his senior ZANU-PF colleagues, Makoni is a
breath of fresh air. He never feeds us his party’s tired
rhetoric, but freely acknowledges the depth of the crises
facing Zimbabwe and has good ideas about how to resolve them.
As Finance Minister, his public candor about Zimbabwe’s
challenges and the required solutions earned him a dismissal
from Cabinet and lingering distrust from party hardliners.
Since his departure from Government last fall, however,
Makoni has begun to gain popularity with many ZANU stalwarts
who see him as their only hope of maintaining the ruling
party’s hold on power. Even his public comments of last week
published in the independent “Daily News” that ZANU-PF must
talk to the MDC to resolve the country’s crisis were
ground-breaking. While acknowledging that succession is the
informal topic du jour among ZANU-PF insiders, Makoni
adroitly avoided addressing his own role in such discussions.
He seemed much more relaxed than the last time we saw him;
life in the private sector, where he and his wife run a
lingerie manufacturing/retail business, clearly agrees with
him.
SULLIVAN
(27 VIEWS)
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