These highly influential figures would have a central role in any transfer of power, and some contend that it was Tsvangirai’s weakness on this front that prevented him from having a stronger bargaining position in 2008.
By contrast, Mujuru is understood to be close to the chiefs of intelligence services and police, though she reportedly has weaker ties to the army chief.
It is even suggested in some circles that her closeness to elements within the security services was one of the reasons she fell out with Mugabe.
There is thus much for the opposition to cheer, but there should also be considerable caution about the coalition’s potential.
Firstly, it is important to note that the grouping hasn’t fully coalesced.
The leaders of the NPP and MDC have simply signed a memorandum of understanding, which states that at some point in the future, they will contest elections as a united front.
There is no formal commitment to an actual coalition just yet.
Secondly, there are still many unanswered questions as to what form the coalition will actually take.
For example, will the group field candidates that represent the whole alliance, or will each party still put forwards their own representatives?
Moreover, who will lead the movement?
The current consensus suggests that Tsvangirai is the favourite, but the talks to determine whether he will be acceptable to all those under the opposition umbrella have not been had.
There are many unresolved issues yet to be decided, and if it turns out that they cannot be resolved, the coalition could fragment as quickly as it came together.
Thirdly, even if the opposition does present a united front in 2018, it will still come up against the ruthless ZANU-PF and its tried and tested election tactics.
Without a clear strategy to tackle issues of voter registration and electoral manipulation, the coalition will simply be a boneless mass of motley politicians.
Mujuru’s decades-long experience in Mugabe’s inner circle means that she is likely to be aware of how elections have been manipulated in the past.
Her commitment to the coalition will be tested with the extent to which she is prepared to divulge secrets that may prove useful.
The coming together of opposition parties has unsettled ZANU-PF and its supporters.
But the response so far has been rather sedate, mostly confined to dismissing the alliance’s prospects and referring to it as a “coalition of failures”.
Continued next page
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