Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai told diplomats on 21 November 2000 that his party was considering four scenarios for its role in Zimbabwe.
The first was to wait for the 2002 presidential elections. The problem with this was that people were impatient and wanted change. Tsvangirai also questioned who would underwrite the government for the next 18 months while it destroyed the economy.
The second was an accelerated constitutional process leading to early elections. Tsvangirai argued that this was a legitimate option because President Robert Mugabe had lost his mandate to rule.
The third was mass action. The question was when it would occur and whether it could plunge Zimbabwe into chaos. Tsvangirai said he wanted a peaceful mass action but the government was likely to respond with force.
The fourth scenario was mass action with government repression. Tsvangirai told the diplomats that he was concerned that any mass action would be met by severe police and military repression possibly leading to martial law. But he did not believe this scenario would happen because the police and military in Zimbabwe respected the constitutional role of civilian control.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 00HARARE6564, TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC
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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4748
PAGE 01 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00
EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
——————A2C363 221613Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7681
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006564
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD – DWELLER, AND AFR/SA – CPALMA,
NNEWMAN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z
PASS USTR – ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE
NOVEMBER 24
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 21, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI,
PRESIDENT OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC
CHANGE (MDC), BRIEFED THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON THE
MDC VIEW OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE IN THE CONTEXT OF
AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE TO BE HELD IN BOTSWANA NOVEMBER 24
TO DECEMBER 1. TSVANGIRAI SAID IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR
SADC, THE EU, AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEAL
WITH ZIMBABWE’S CRISIS WITH FORESIGHT. THE MDC LEADER
STATED THAT HE IS NOT SEEKING INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, BUT SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC
PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC
HAD TRIED TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF
ZIMBABWE (GOZ) AND THE RULING ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT
SINCE THE JUNE ELECTIONS, BUT HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY MET
WITH HOSTILITY AND VINDICTIVENESS. HE OUTLINED FOUR
FUTURE SCENARIOS OF DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS HE AND HIS
PARTY ARE CONSIDERING: 1) WAITING FOR THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 2) EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,
3) MASS ACTION WITH NO GOVERNMENT REPRESSION, AND 4)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z
MASS ACTION RESULTING IN POLICE AND MILITARY REPRESSION
THAT COULD LEAD TO MARTIAL LAW. TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A DECISION ON THE QUESTION
OF MASS ACTION, AND THE PARTY COUNCIL WILL MEET NOVEMBER
24 TO VOTE WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE’S DECISION. END SUMMARY.
——————————————— ——-
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS
——————————————— ——-
¶2. (C) ECONOFF ATTENDED A NOVEMBER 21 BRIEFING BY THE
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR THE HARARE
DIPLOMATIC CORPS. THE BRIEFING WAS WELL ATTENDED BY
REPRESENTATIVES FROM ALL THE MAJOR DONOR COUNTRIES.
TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PURPOSE OF THE BRIEFING WAS TO SHARE
SIPDIS
THE MDC’S PERSPECTIVE ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE PRIOR TO
AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE IN BOTSWANA FROM NOVEMBER 24 TO
DECEMBER 1. HE STATED THAT THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR HAD
WANTED THE MDC INVITED TO THE CONFERENCE, BUT THAT THE
GOVERNMENT OF BOTSWANA HAD VETOED THIS DECISION AS
“UNDEMOCRATIC.” (NOTE: TSVANGIRAI DID NOT SAY WHAT
COUNTRY THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR WAS ACCREDITED TO, AND
ECONOFF WAS NOT ABLE TO GET A CLARIFICATION ON THIS.
END NOTE.)
—————————————
THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
—————————————
¶3. (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC IS NOT SEEKING THE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY’S SUPPORT FOR THE PARTY. WHAT
IS CRITICAL IS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORTS
HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE.
WHEN ASKED WHAT HAD BEEN HIS GOAL IN MEETING WITH NELSON
MANDELA A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS
TWO-FOLD: FIRST, MANDELA HAS TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE AND
CLOUT IN THE REGION, AND COULD COMMUNICATE TO THE
GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA THE IMPORTANCE OF REVIEWING
ITS POSITION ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE; AND SECOND, TO
GIVE ASSURANCE THAT AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT SEEK
RETRIBUTION AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE STATED THAT HE
WAS NOT ASKING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, OR MANDELA,
TO APPLY PRESSURE TO THE GOZ, BUT RATHER TO BRING REASON
TO BEAR.
——————————–
DEALING WITH ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ
——————————–
¶4. (C) TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC HAD TRIED (AFTER
THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS) TO WORK WITH THE GOZ
AND ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT ON ISSUES OF COMMON CONCERN,
SUCH AS THE ECONOMY AND LAND REFORM, BUT FOUND THE GOZ
AND ZANU-PF VINDICTIVE AND UNWILLING TO WORK WITH THE
OPPOSITION PARTY. THE MDC LEADER EXPLAINED THAT ZANU-PF
IS UNWILLING TO ACCEPT THAT PUBLIC OPINION IN MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY IS AGAINST THEM, AND IT IS WILLING TO USE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4750
PAGE 01 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 DINT-00
DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02
G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
——————A2C377 221613Z /38
P 221602Z NOV 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7682
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006564
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD – DWELLER, AND AFR/SA – CPALMA,
NNEWMAN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z
PASS USTR – ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE
NOVEMBER 24
VIOLENCE TO STAY IN POWER. TSVANGIRAI SAID THIS IS
EXEMPLIFIED BY THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE OCCURRING IN
MARONDERA WEST, WHERE A BY-ELECTION FOR A SEAT IN
PARLIAMENT WILL BE HELD ON NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. HE WAS
SCHEDULED TO SPEAK AT AN MDC RALLY IN MARONDERA ON
NOVEMBER 17, BUT CANCELLED WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR THAT WAR
VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE
TO DISRUPT THE RALLY.
(NOTE: A VIOLENT ALTERCATION
BETWEEN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AND MDC SUPPORTERS IN
MARONDERA STILL OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 17, AND AN INNOCENT
BYSTANDER WAS SHOT DEAD IN AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE. END
NOTE). TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS CLEAR THERE CAN BE NO
PEACEFUL FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
AND THAT THE MDC WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED INTO
WITHDRAWING FROM THIS OR OTHER ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE.
————————-
THE FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS
————————-
¶5. (C) TSVANGIRAI TOLD HIS AUDIENCE THAT THE MDC WAS NOW
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z
CONSIDERING FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR ITS ROLE IN
ZIMBABWE’S FUTURE:
1) WAIT FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
THE PROBLEM WITH THIS STRATEGY IS THAT PEOPLE ARE
IMPATIENT AND WANT CHANGE NOW. HE ALSO QUESTIONED
WHO WAS GOING TO UNDERWRITE THE GOZ FOR THE NEXT 18
MONTHS WHILE IT DESTROYS THE ECONOMY.
2) AN ACCELERATED CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS LEADING TO
EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
HE SAID THIS WAS A LEGITIMATE OPTION BECAUSE
PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS LOST HIS MANDATE TO RULE,
AND WHY SHOULD THE PEOPLE WAIT 18 MONTHS FOR A
CHANGE WHEN THE COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD IT.
3) A MASS ACTION.
THE QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL IT OCCUR, AND WILL
IT PLUNGE ZIMBABWE INTO CHAOS? HE STATED THAT HE
WANTED ANY MASS ACTION TO BE PEACEFUL AND WITHIN
THE LAW, AND THAT THE GOZ WILL NOT RESPOND WITH
FORCE AGAINST A PEACEFUL MASS ACTION.
4) A MASS ACTION WITH GOZ REPRESSION.
TSVANGIRAI TOLD THE GROUP THAT HE WAS CONCERNED
THAT A MASS ACTION WOULD BE MET BY SEVERE POLICE
AND MILITARY REPRESSION, POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z
MARTIAL LAW. HE DID NOT BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO
WOULD HAPPEN, BECAUSE THE POLICE AND MILITARY IN
ZIMBABWE RESPECT THE CONSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF
CIVILIAN CONTROL.
————————————
MDC TO LEAD MASS ACTION IN DECEMBER?
————————————
¶6. (C) AFTER LAYING OUT THESE SCENARIOS, TSVANGIRAI TOLD
THE GATHERING THAT THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A
DECISION REGARDING WHETHER TO CALL FOR A MASS ACTION.
(COMMENT: TSVANGIRAI WAS DELIBERATELY VAGUE ON WHAT THE
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DECIDED. END COMMENT.) THE
PARTY COUNCIL, REPRESENTING THE MDC’S 12 PROVINCES, WILL
MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO VOTE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE’S DECISION. (NOTE: THE MDC DIVIDES
ZIMBABWE INTO 12 “PROVINCES” FOR REPRESENTATION ON ITS
PARTY COUNCIL, WHICH IS THE SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY
OF THE MDC. THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE ACTS ON THE
COUNCIL’S BEHALF WHEN IT IS NOT IN SESSION. THE COUNCIL
MEETS INFREQUENTLY AND ONLY TO MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS.
END NOTE.)
¶7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE WE HAVE STRONGLY COUNSELED
TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC LEADERSHIP REGARDING THE RISKS OF
SIPDIS
CALLING FOR MARCHES OR DEMONSTRATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO
FURTHER BLOODSHED AND REPRESSION, TSVANGIRAI’S BRIEFING
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4751
PAGE 01 HARARE 06564 03 OF 03 221604Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00
EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W
——————A2C385 221613Z /38
P 221602Z NOV 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7683
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006564
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD – DWELLER, AND AFR/SA – CPALMA,
NNEWMAN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 03 OF 03 221604Z
PASS USTR – ROSA WHITAKER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC
VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE
NOVEMBER 24
INDICATED THAT THE MDC IS STILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING
SOME FORM OF MASS ACTION IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE,
PERHAPS TO COINCIDE WITH THE ZANU-PF PARTY CONGRESS IN
DECEMBER. HOWEVER, TSVANGIRAI CLEARLY DID NOT WANT TO
PUT ALL HIS CARDS ON THE TABLE BY REVEALING THE NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE’S DECISION, POSSIBLY IN CASE THE PARTY COUNCIL
TURNS DOWN ITS RECOMMENDATION ON THE FORM THE MASS
ACTION SHOULD TAKE. END COMMENT.
MCDONALD
CONFIDENTIAL
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