Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s political advisor Gorden Moyo said without President Robert Mugabe there would be chaos as hardliners within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front wanted to scuttle the Global Political Agreement.
He said though progress on the outstanding issues within the GPA was slow, the Movement for Democratic Change could live with that because its fundamental goal was a constitution that would pave the way for elections.
Moyo felt that Mugabe was key to movement in the process leading to the new constitution and elections and Tsvangirai’s working relationship with Mugabe was allowing this to go forward.
Without Mugabe, there would be chaos as the hardliners who wanted to scuttle the GPA- Patrick Chinamasa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, George Charamba and Jonathan Moyo- would take over ZANU-PF.
Moyo downplayed the role of the service chiefs saying that they had little support within the military. He thought Mugabe had control over them and he used them to intimidate.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE806, TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSB #0806/01 2801445
ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY ADC00EC7 MSI0802-695)
O 071445Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4984
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 3068
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3180
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1609
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2443
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2812
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3228
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5675
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2362
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000806
SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY TEXT
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY
REF: A. HARARE 753
¶B. HARARE 736
Classified By: CDA Donald Petterson for reason 1.4 (d)
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister
Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current
political developments. Moyo believes that Tsvangirai’s
hard-hitting speech at an MDC rally in Bulawayo on September
13 has led to a conciliatory attitude on the part of
President Robert Mugabe. Progress includes the naming of the
Media Commission (which will be announced in the next several
days), steps to form other commissions, a reconfigured
constitutional process, a cessation of media attacks on
Tsvangirai, and a subdued address by Mugabe at the opening of
Parliament on October 6. Moyo acknowledges that further
progress on the Global Political Agreement (GPA) will be
incremental, but emphasized that this is acceptable — the
goal is a new constitution that will lead to elections. Moyo
also discussed land invasions and disruptions of wild-life
conservancies, and sanctions. END SUMMARY.
——————————————— —
Tsvangirai’s Harder Line Pays Some Dividends…
——————————————— —
¶2. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister
Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current
political developments. According to Moyo, Tsvangirai’s
address to between 25,000 and 30,000 MDC supporters in
Bulawayo on September 13 to celebrate the MDC’s 10th
anniversary (Ref B) had scared Mugabe. After meeting with
the MDC National Council, Tsvangirai blasted ZANU-PF and
Mugabe for not complying with the GPA, said he would not be a
whipping boy for ZANU-PF, and promised to let the people
decide whether the MDC should remain in government.
¶3. (C) Moyo told the Charge that Mugabe, who wants to delay
implementation of the GPA but not derail it, had become
concerned that the MDC might leave government and had taken
steps to appease Tsvangirai. He had met with Tsvangirai and
the two had selected Media Commission members (to be
announced in the next several days). He was helping to
facilitate selection of members for the Electoral Commission,
the Human Rights Commission, and the Anti-Corruption
Commission; selection of members should take place in the
next few weeks. He had agreed with Tsvangirai that
appointments to six media parastatals (Zimpapers, which
publishes State newspapers including The Herald; the
Broadcasting Authority of Zimbabwe (BAZ) which is responsible
for State television; Transmedia, a transmission equipment
provider; Kingstons, a bookseller; and Niw Ziana, a news
outlet) should be reviewed. (NOTE: The appointments have
drawn sharp criticism from media watchdogs. Tafataona
Mahoso, who as chair of the former Media and Information
Commission, banned the Daily News, was appointed to head the
BAZ, and military officials were appointed to all of the
boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media
boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media
cease attacks on Tsvangirai. Finally, Mugabe in his address
at the opening of Parliament on October 6 had called for
lifting of sanctions but had refrained from attacks on the
West.
¶4. (SBU) NOTE: Toward the end of his speech at the opening
of Parliament, which focused on the economy and legislative
priorities, Mugabe stated “Our country remains in a positive
stance to enter into fresh, friendly and co-operative
relations with all those countries that have been hostile to
us in the past.” In the only reference to sanctions, he said
that “…as our inclusive Government re-engages the Western
countries we expect those countries that have imposed the
illegal sanctions which have hurt and continue to hurt our
economy and the generality of our people, to remove them.”
In an above-the-fold headline on October 7, The Herald
trumpeted, “Zim ready to engage West.” END NOTE.
——————————————— ——-
..But the Focus is on the Constitution and Elections
——————————————— ——-
¶5. (C) Noting that progress was likely to be slow on
outstanding GPA issues, Moyo said the MDC could live with
that. The fundamental goal of the MDC was a constitution
that would pave the way for elections. Mugabe, in Moyo’s
opinion, was key to movement in the process leading up to a
new constitution and elections, and Tsvangirai’s working
relationship with Mugabe was allowing this to go forward.
Without Mugabe, there would be chaos, and hardliners who want
to scuttle the GPA — Moyo pointed to Patrick Chinamasa,
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, George Charamba, and
Jonathan Moyo — would take over ZANU-PF. (NOTE: Moyo
downplayed the role of the service chiefs who he said had
little support within the military; he thought Mugabe had
control over them and they were used by him to intimidate.
END NOTE.)
¶6. (C) On the constitution, Moyo said that in discussions on
reconfiguration of the process (Ref A), the principals —
Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur
Mutambara — had agreed the Kariba draft would be a reference
document. If there were disagreements on a particular issue,
the parties would look to the Kariba draft to resolve it.
For example, the Kariba draft provided for immunity from
prosecution for ex-presidents. Moyo noted immunity would be
of concern to Mugabe should he leave office.
——————
Some Notes on Land
——————
¶7. (C) Moyo noted the reluctance of the MDC to tackle land
invasions head-on; the MDC does not want to be viewed as
supporting white farmers. He said the MDC in Cabinet was
planning to support formation of a bi-partisan group to look
at the land issue in the context of corruption. The group
would first investigate parastatals, then the mining
industry, and finally land with the goal of unearthing fake
offer letters and multiple ownerships.
¶8. (C) With regard to recent efforts of ZANU-PF officials to
make themselves partners with conservancy owners, Moyo said
he was aware of the issue and that Tsvangirai had spoken to
Vice-President Mujuru about it. He admitted this was not a
priority; the Prime Minister’s Office had too few resources
to deal with it.
———
SANCTIONS
———
¶9. (C) Cabinet will debate sanctions at the end of the
month, according to Moyo. He is preparing a paper to
demonstrate that sanctions and ZDERA are not responsible for
Zimbabwe’s economic plight. The MDC hopes to focus the
discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions
discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions
to be removed and ZDERA repealed — full compliance with the
GPA.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶10. (C) Moyo confirmed what we have heard from Tsvangirai,
Tendai Biti, and others: GPA progress will be slow and the
gold ring for the MDC is a new constitution and elections.
One potentially positive area is the media. The formation of
the Media Commission will allow authorization for the Daily
News to resume publication and for Newsday (a daily version
of The Independent) to begin publication. END COMMENT.
PETTERSON
(43 VIEWS)
