With almost three months gone since the signing of the Global Political Agreement but the allocation of ministries still unresolved, Movement for Democratic Change secretary-general Tendai Biti told United States embassy officials that the party was now paying lip service to dialogue. Its real goal was internationally supervised elections.
The party’s national council had on 12 December resolved that it would not finalise any power-sharing agreement unless there was:
- Equitable distribution of ministerial portfolios and governorships;
- Agreement on composition and functions of the national security council;
- and enactment of Amendment 19.
The party also demanded that former South African President Thabo Mbeki be replaced as facilitator and that executive decisions such as the reappointment of central bank governor Gideon Gono which were in violation of the Memorandum of Understanding and September agreement be reversed.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE1127, MUGABE CONSIDERS ELECTIONS; NO END TO POLITICAL
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
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VZCZCXRO7591
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #1127/01 3511537
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 161537Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3830
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2499
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2622
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1115
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1891
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2246
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2671
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5099
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1766
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001127
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B. WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONSIDERS ELECTIONS; NO END TO POLITICAL
STALEMATE IN SIGHT
REF: A. HARARE 1100
¶B. HARARE 1117
Classified By: Charge d’Affaires, a.i. Katherine Dhanani for reason 1.4
(d)
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (SBU) President Mugabe and senior ZANU-PF officials have
made several recent references to holding new elections to
settle the political stalemate in Zimbabwe. ZANU-PF may view
elections as an opportunity to retake all the levers of
government, while the MDC fears a new wave of pre-election
violence similar to that which occurred prior to the June
2008 presidential run-off. The gazetting of Amendment 19 and
ZANU-PF’s calls for elections appear to be an attempt to
pressure the MDC into entering a power-sharing government.
END SUMMARY.
————
Amendment 19
————
¶2. (U) On December 12, the MDC national council resolved
inter alia that it would not finalize a power-sharing
agreement and enter government absent 1) equitable
distribution of ministerial portfolios and governorships; 2)
agreement on composition and functions of the national
security council; and 3) enactment of Amendment 19. The MDC
also demanded that Mbeki be replaced as facilitator and that
executive decisions (such as the reappointment of central
bank governor Gono) in violation of the Memorandum of
Understanding and September agreement be reversed. The
resolution states that the MDC is committed to the SADC
dialogue; it also states that in the event of continued
political impasse, a transitional government should be
established and a “people-driven” constitution drafted as a
prelude to new, internationally supervised elections. MDC’s
Tendai Biti told us that the MDC is basically paying lip
service to dialogue; its real goal is internationally
supervised elections (Ref B).
¶3. (U) On December 13, the GOZ gazetted (officially
published) Amendment 19. (NOTE: The September 15 agreement,
signed by the principals, contains three provisions different
from the agreed-upon September 11 document. Amendment 19 as
gazetted contains the September 11 provisions supported by
the MDC. END NOTE.) By law, Amendment 19 will be open for
public comment for 30 days. At that time a first “reading”
will take place and debate can begin. Therefore, the
earliest date a vote could take place would be January 13
(there is no legal provision to dispense with the 30-day
period). There is no time period within which a vote must be
held.
¶4. (C) As of today, MDC president Tsvangirai is still in
Botswana. There are no plans for meetings to resolve the
outstanding issues.
——————————————–
Mugabe and ZANU-PF Considering New Elections
——————————————–
¶5. (U) In several public statements, President Mugabe and
ZANU-PF leaders appeared to be considering holding new
elections to determine Zimbabwe’s political future. In a
December 11 speech, while discussing possible foreign
intervention, Mugabe said, “Let’s settle things here. We can
HARARE 00001127 002 OF 003
go to an election if elections are desirable and the people
are the deciders and we will never reject their verdict.”
This was followed by ZANU-PF chief negotiator Patrick
Chinamasa telling state media on December 15 that refusal of
the MDC to pass Amendment 19 in Parliament would mean an end
to negotiations on a government of national unity and would
result in new presidential, parliamentary, and local
elections.
¶6. (SBU) Political analyst Eldred Masunungure told us on
December 12 that if harmonized elections were generally free
and fair, ZANU-PF would be swept out of power. This
perception has led to concern by the MDC of a wave of
violence preceding new elections similar to what happened in
the months leading up to the June 2008 run-off election. The
MDC is also pointing to the abductions of approximately 19 of
its supporters since late October (Ref A) as indications the
regime will use intimidation and violence to regain
governmental authority. Four of the abductees were MDC
candidates who lost in the parliamentary March 29 elections,
but would be expected to run again in new elections. Other
abductees included party organizers and employees of the
human rights watch dog group, Zimbabwe Peace Project.
—————————————-
Complete Elections or Just Presidential?
—————————————-
¶7. (SBU) In the event of new elections, ZANU-PF would seek
to hold new presidential, parliamentary, and local polls.
This would create an opportunity for them to regain control
of Parliament and potentially retake many local councils that
were lost to the MDC. Constitutional Amendment 17 stipulated
that for the March 29, 2008 elections, as well as going
forward, all three elections would be held in unison. The
MDC opposes this position and argues that only the
presidential results were inconclusive. MDC spokesperson
Nelson Chamisa said, “What is in dispute is the position of
the President. Mugabe cannot drag the whole country into
harmonized elections because he lost.” (NOTE: ZANU-PF
currently controls 97 seats in the House of Assembly to the
MDC-T’s 99. MDC-M has 10 seats and there are four vacancies.
END NOTE.)
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶8. (C) Mugabe recognizes that ZANU-PF cannot effectively
govern alone. ZANU-PF’s threat to call elections, like its
gazetting of Amendment 19, is an effort to put pressure on
the MDC to enter government under an agreement that would
give ZANU-PF the balance of power. So far the MDC is not
biting. Its national council on December 12 made clear that
it will not approve Amendmnt 19 in Parliament absent
agreement on the outstanding issues of equitable distribution
of ministerial positions and governorships, and composition
and duties of the national security council.
¶9. (C) We believe it unlikely Mugabe will call elections.
The MDC will not participate in elections without guarantees
at the outset of international supervision and monitoring;
Mugabe knows that a relatively fair playing field created by
international oversight would result in an MDC victory. To
call elections without MDC participation would risk the
condemnation of SADC and would not advance the prospects of
the legitimacy that Mugabe craves.
¶10. (C) There are hardliners in both ZANU-PF and the MDC
that do not want a power-sharing agreement. It remains to be
HARARE 00001127 003 OF 003
seen whether compromises are possible that will resolve the
impasse. As of now, we see no evidence of this. The public
outcry in the last couple of weeks for Mugabe to step down
would only seem to strengthen the position of MDC hardliners
like Tendai Biti (Ref B) who do not want to share government
with ZANU-PF. All of this points to a continued political
stalemate with no clear solution in sight. END COMMENT.
DHANANI
(83 VIEWS)
