The leader of the smaller faction of the Movement for Democratic Change Arthur Mutambara criticised the West for not willing to use military force to oust President Robert Mugabe.
He warned that if the country collapsed, the leader of the larger faction of the MDC Morgan Tsvangirai would not necessarily be able to take power and Zimbabwe could become the next Somalia.
Ironically Mutambara’s comments came at the very time that the West was castigating him for being too close to Mugabe. He had also told the West to go to hell.
Even at the seminar organised by the South African Liaison Office at which he is supposed to have made these comments, Mutambara was the odd one out who did not agree that Mugabe should step down from power.
Mutambara said there were three options for moving forward: popular uprising, forcing Mugabe out and forming an inclusive government. He said the first two were not practical then.
He felt by forming an inclusive government, the opposition could then change the constitution and prepare the country for free and fair elections.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA2716, SOUTH AFRICA FEELING THE HEAT ON ZIMBABWE CRISIS
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
P 151633Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6743
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY
AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002716
USUN FOR AF A/S J. FRAZER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ZANU SF ZM
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA FEELING THE HEAT ON ZIMBABWE CRISIS
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Madeline Q. Seidenstricker.
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: South African leaders have recently stepped
up their level of activity and pronouncements on the Zimbabwe
political and humanitarian crises. Former President Thabo
Mbeki’s facilitation team, without Mbeki, remain engaged with
the political parties, pressing for the quick establishment
of an inclusive government. South African Government (SAG)
high-level officials have led fact-finding missions to
Zimbabwe and the South African region that borders Zimbabwe
to assess the humanitarian crisis and make recommendations
for the SAG’s response. African National Congress (ANC)
leaders are speaking out on suspected abductions in Zimbabwe.
Civil society organizations are calling directly on South
Africa as well as the region and the international community
to take action against Mugabe and for the people of Zimbabwe.
Although South African engagement is increasing on many
levels, the SAG firmly supports an inclusive government and
shows no inclination to demand that Mugabe step down. End
summary.
—————————————-
MBEKI TEAM CONTINUES AS SADC FACILITATOR
—————————————-
¶2. (C) On November 26, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
leader Morgan Tsvangirai called for Mbeki to recuse himself
as the facilitator for negotiations between the political
parties. Tsvangirai spokesman George Sibotshiwe told poloff
on December 10 that the South African facilitators “don’t
understand” the issues at stake. Department of Foreign
Affairs (DFA) Deputy Director of Zambia and Zimbabwe John
Vilakazi told poloff in a December 9 meeting that the SAG did
not support a new facilitator because it could delay
resolution of the crisis. He said that to appoint a new
facilitator at this date “would not make sense” as that
person would have to build trust with the parties and might
be rejected by ruling Zimbabwean party Zanu-PF. He said
President Kgalema Motlanthe, as the chair of the Southern
African Development Community (SADC), would consult the rest
of the SADC countries on this issue. Mbeki’s facilitation
team (his former legal advisor Mojanku Gumbi and former
Minister of Safety and Security Sydney Mufamadi) has
continued informal discussions with the political parties,
according to Sibotshiwe.
——————————————— ———
SAG PRESSES FOR QUICK ADOPTION OF INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT
——————————————— ———
¶3. (U) At a December 9 seminar on the Zimbabwe crisis hosted
by reputable think tank Institute for Democracy in South
Africa, Zimbabwe analyst Sydney Masamvu said the facilitation
team was pushing for a quick resolution to the political
crisis in order to take international and domestic pressures
off Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and off South Africa.
Masamvu said the facilitators pressed the political parties
to gazette the draft version of Amendment 19 agreed to on
November 27 by the negotiating teams of Zanu-PF, MDC-T and
MDC-M. On December 13, the ruling Zanu-PF gazetted Amendment
19, which will establish the framework for a power-sharing
Q19, which will establish the framework for a power-sharing
government, including creating the position of prime minister
and deputy prime minister. Although normal parliamentary
procedure in Zimbabwe allows for debate of proposed
amendments for 30 days before going to a vote, the SAG wants
the parties to bypass this process and put it to a vote
without delay, according to a December 9 press briefing by
DFA Director General Ayanda Ntsaluba. On December 13,
President Kgalema Motlanthe issued a statement welcoming the
draft amendment and said he expected the prime minister and
deputy prime minister to be sworn in “with immediate effect.”
Mbeki issued a separate statement urging the parties to form
an inclusive government “as soon as possible.”
¶4. (C) Going against the wave of recent calls from global
leaders for Mugabe to step down, the SAG continues to favor
an inclusive government. Ntsaluba said during the December 9
press briefing, “The posture that we are assuming now, is not
the posture of pressurizing President Mugabe to step down.
The pressure on President Mugabe and Zanu-PF is for them to
move with greater speed to successfully implement the
agreement that was signed on 15 September 2008 so that an
inclusive government can be established.” Irish Ambassador
Colin Wrafter told econoff that a December 9 meeting of
European Union chiefs of missions to South Africa on Zimbabwe
focused on the SAG’s military capacity for intervention.
Regarding that possibility, Ntsaluba said during the press
briefing, “As to whether South Africa would ever contemplate
deploying troops – I cannot see that arising. I do not
believe that is on the agenda of the South African government
at all although I cannot predict what will happen in the next
twenty years. But for now, and of course, in the current
debate, I do not think that the South African government is
persuaded that that is the right way to go.”
——————————————— ———
SAG MOTIVATED BY HUMANITARIAN CRISIS AND SELF-INTEREST
——————————————— ———
¶5. (C) The SAG is taking note of the worsening humanitarian
crisis in Zimbabwe and its impact on South Africa. On
December 8, former Director General of the Presidency and key
player on Zimbabwe policy under Mbeki Reverend Frank Chikane
led a delegation of SAG officials and a SADC representative
to Zimbabwe to determine what humanitarian assistance South
Africa and SADC should provide. They met with the UN’s World
Food Program, Food and Agriculture Organization and
Children’s Fund as well as churches and farmers’ unions. SAG
spokesman Themba Maseko said the aid package would be
announced this week. On December 9 Health Minister Barbara
Hogan led a delegation to assess the cholera outbreak in
Limpopo Province along the border region with Zimbabwe, which
has experienced a massive influx of Zimbabweans escaping the
crisis. Following the visit, the Limpopo Provincial
Government (LPG) declared the Vhembe district, which borders
Zimbabwe, a cholera disaster area due to the number of
cholera-related deaths and infected persons. LPG spokesman
Mogale Nchabeleng said the disaster status would free up
funding, focus relief efforts and reduce response time. The
Limpopo River, which touches South Africa, Zimbabwe and
Mozambique, has tested positive for cholera.
————————————
ANC ESCALATES INVOLVEMENT ON ZIMBABWE
————————————
¶6. (C) On December 10 the ANC and ANC Women’s League issued
statements of concern over the disappearance of human rights
activist Jestina Mukoko and other suspected abduction
victims. While the ANC statement urged the political parties
in Zimbabwe to come to agreement on a political solution, the
ANC Women’s League directed its demand for a resolution to
the leadership of the SADC region. The Women’s League will
convene a meeting of progressive women organizations in the
SADC region to discuss the Zimbabwe crisis.
¶7. (C) On December 12, the United Kingdom (UK) Minister for
Africa, Asia and the UN Mark Malloch-Brown met with ANC
Treasurer General Matthews Phosa, according to British High
Commission Officer on regional issues Mark Norton. Norton
said the ANC is looking for ideas on how South Africa can
help resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe. Phosa is planning a
trip to the UK December 15-17 where he will meet with
Malloch-Brown as well as with the UK Foreign Ministry’s
QMalloch-Brown as well as with the UK Foreign Ministry’s
Zimbabwe team. Phosa will report to ANC President Jacob Zuma
upon his return. Norton said UK officials are developing
ideas to share with Phosa and they think this is a positive
indication of potentially greater South African involvement
in bringing the crisis to a resolution. Norton said SAG
Foreign Minister Dlamini-Zuma has asked for a meeting with
British Foreign Secretary Miliband in January.
——————————————— –
CIVIL SOCIETY CALLS FOR MUGABE TO STEP DOWN…
——————————————— –
¶8. (U) On December 11 non-governmental organization South
African Liaison Office (SALO) hosted a seminar geared at
building international consensus on Zimbabwe. A broad range
of civil society leaders directed their recommendations for
saving Zimbabwe to South Africa, regional organizations and
the UN. Rights activist and Open Society Initiative for
Southern Africa Program Director Isabella Matambanadzo
remarked that this was the first SALO event where there was
consensus that Mugabe must step down from power. An
important exception to this consensus was MDC-M President
Arthur Mutambara, who said there were three options for
moving forward: popular uprising, forcing Mugabe out and
forming an inclusive government. He said the first two were
not practical at the moment. Mutambara felt by forming an
inclusive government, the opposition could then change the
constitution and prepare the country for free and fair
elections. He criticized Western governments for not being
willing to use military force to oust Mugabe. He warned that
if the country collapsed, Tsvangirai would not necessarily be
able to take power and Zimbabwe could become the next
Somalia.
——————————
…AND SOUTH AFRICA TO STEP UP
——————————
¶9. (U) Deputy Speaker of Parliament and ANC Member of
Parliament Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge said South Africa should
not recognize Mugabe as head of state. She recommended a
boycott of South African companies that are profiting from
the crisis in Zimbabwe. Leader of the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn
party Simba Makoni, former Zanu-PF Minister of Home Affairs
Dumiso Dabengwa and Matambanadzo called for SADC to take a
position on the June 2008 SADC observer mission report, which
stated that the presidential runoff elections did not
represent the will of the people and did not conform to
SADC’s principles governing democratic elections.
Matambanadzo called on South Africa to condemn the abductions
and forced disappearances of activists and others in Zimbabwe
and for a new framework for mediation. Father Michael
Lapsley of the Institute for the Healing of Memories said
South Africa should remove visa requirements for Zimbabweans.
He lamented, “I feel a sense of shame about (South Africa)
failing the people of Zimbabwe. We failed ourselves, our
history.”
——————————————— —
REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND UN NEED TO GET TOUGH
——————————————— —
¶10. (U) Madlala-Routledge emphasized the “responsibility to
protect” of the African Union and the UN. Women of Zimbabwe
Arise representative Jenni Williams urged the UN to change
its food distribution model to allow access of all hungry
Zimbabweans to food assistance. She said the system in place
now legitimizes Zanu-PF and prevents most activists from
accessing food aid. UN High Commission for Human Rights
Officer David Johnson welcomed the call for greater UN
involvement. He said there needs to be a specific call for
UN human rights monitoring in Zimbabwe to lower the
occurrence of violations. He said regional leaders, not
Western countries, must lead this initiative in order to gain
necessary support for implementation. Mutambara said calls
from Western leaders for Mugabe to go were well-intended, but
“played into Mugabe’s hands” and were ineffective. He said
regional leaders such as Motlanthe and Angolan President Jose
Eduardo dos Santos needed to send strong messages to Mugabe.
¶11. (C) Comment: South Africa is seized with the Zimbabwe
crisis at several levels. The leadership is increasingly
cognizant of the damage that implosion of the Zimbabwe
political and economic structures is having on South Africa’s
domestic front and international reputation. The cholera
outbreak may yet arouse citizen anger if the SAG fails to
Qoutbreak may yet arouse citizen anger if the SAG fails to
respond adequately. While the SAG appears to be addressing
the cholera crisis, it is willfully ignoring the larger
problem of massive numbers of sick and desperate Zimbabweans
entering South Africa. The SAG has no coherent policy that
addresses the influx of Zimbabweans, which may trigger
renewed xenophobic attacks or may become an issue in next
year’s national elections. Importantly, the crisis has the
potential of becoming a significant domestic political issue
at a time when the ANC looks to be losing its position of
total dominance in the Parliament. The ANC is taking steps
to place itself at the front of the Zimbabwe issue. While
there is reason to hope for greater levels of SAG engagement
on Zimbabwe, the political leadership is holding strong on
its official support for the Mbeki mediation process and an
inclusive government. So far the SAG demonstrates no
appetite for getting tough on Mugabe.
BOST
(29 VIEWS)
