Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube said negotiations with the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front were going on well on paper but a “paradigm shift” by President Robert Mugabe was critical to the success of the negotiations and Mugabe had to indicate by his “body language” that he wanted change.
The two Movement for Democratic Change secretaries said negotiations had entered their final phase and agreement had been reached on most issues like the draft constitution, a new electoral law, reform of the Public Order and Security Act and reform of the media laws.
Negotiations were now to address the political environment and the potentially deal-breaking transitional issues of timing of implementation of the new constitution and date of the election.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 07HARARE1080, SADC TALKS ENTER FINAL PHASE
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO4230
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #1080/01 3391341
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051341Z DEC 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2199
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1673
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1804
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0417
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1081
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1429
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1860
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4288
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0931
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001080
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL,
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2013
SUBJECT: SADC TALKS ENTER FINAL PHASE
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Glenn Warren. Reason: 1.4 (d)
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (SBU) MDC negotiators Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube told
diplomats December 4 that the final phase of SADC-sponsored
negotiations will take place in South Africa between December
5 and December 10. Agreement has been reached on a draft
constitution, a new electoral law, reform of POSA, and reform
of media laws. In South Africa, negotiators will address the
political environment, and the potentially deal-breaking
transitional issues of timing of implementation of the new
constitution and date of the election. Noting gains on
paper, the negotiators said that critical to success on the
ground would be a “paradigm shift” by Mugabe, supporting a
changed political environment to allow implementation of an
agreement.
¶2. (SBU) On the role of the international community, the
negotiators acknowledged the importance of observers. Since
the invitation to non-Zibabweans is a sovereign decision,
they hoped this would be part of the agreement. On
sanctions, they opined that the international community
should await the outcome of the SADC process–maintaining
existing policies, but not ratcheting up pressure. End
Summary.
——————————————— ————-
Progress to Date–Constitution, Electoral Law, POSA, AIPPA
——————————————— ————-
¶3. (SBU) The MDC negotiators said negotiations would resume
on December 5 with a deadline for an agreement of December
¶10. If an agreement were reached, it would need to be
ratified by the executive committees of the respective sides.
This would presumably occur by December 15. (Note. The
EU-AU Summit takes place on December 9-December 10, the
ZNU-PF Congress is scheduled for December 11-December 14, and
the ANC National Congress is scheduled for December
15-December 20. End Note.)
¶4. (SBU) According to Biti, although ZANU-PF had initially
argued for amending the current constitution, agreement had
been reached on a new draft constitution that contained a
bill of rights, oversight committees, and a new electoral
framework. Subsequently, a new Electoral Act had been
introduced in Parliament, concretizing what had been agreed
to in the constitution. This included continuous voter
registration and inspection of voters’ rolls, access of all
parties to public broadcasting, ability of anyone or
group–not just the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC)–to
do voter education, and restriction of the use of security
forces in the electoral process. Biti noted that agreement
had not been reached on whether the current ZEC should
continue the ongoing voter registration process and
constituency delimitation exercise, or whether these should
await the reconstitution of the ZEC (with new membership)
under the new constitution.
¶5. (SBU) Biti said the parties had agreed to modify POSA,
based on the South African model. Authorization for meetings
would still be necessary (impossible, he said, to avoid in a
post-9-11 world), but regulators would have to justify
denials, which would be the rare case. In the event of
denial, appeal would be to the courts rather than a minister.
¶6. (SBU) Finally, Biti said there was an agreement to reform
AIPPA to remove restrictive accreditation requirements.
Under the proposed AIPPA, journalists would not have to be
accredited. Accreditation would confer certain privileges,
HARARE 00001080 002 OF 003
such as sitting in Parliament and gaining access to
government-held information.
——————-
Unresolved Violence
——————-
¶7. (SBU) According to the MDC negotiators, the principal
unresolved issue was the political atmosphere. On September
30, ZANU-PF negotiators had promised that the party would
engage its structures and those of the government to stop
violence and permit opposition meetings. The South African
mediators had stressed the importance of this. Two months
later, despite continuing negotiations and progress on paper,
violence had continued.
¶8. (SBU) Biti and Ncube both stressed that a “paradigm
shift” had to take place, directed by Mugabe. Mugabe had to
indicate by his “body language”–the signals that he sends to
his party structures–that he wanted a change on the ground;
otherwise the progress at the negotiating table would not
ensure free and fair elections.
——————————
Outstanding Substantive Issues
——————————
¶9. (SBU) In addition to the overall issue of violence, the
MDC had placed on the agenda the following issues which had
not yet been discussed and/or resolved: militarization of
the state (increasing role of security forces in traditional
government functions such as distribution of food and
elections), coopting by the government of traditional leaders
to carry out its objectives, manipulation of food aid whereby
ZANU-PF membership is sometimes necessary to obtain food
assistance, and the role of security forces such as “green
bombers” or youths who extra-officially intimidate the
opposition and its supporters.
¶10. (SBU) Issues tabled by ZANU-PF included sanctions, land,
“pirate” or off-shore radio such as VOA, recognition by the
opposition of national days, and opposition recognition of
the 2002 election results and Mugabe’s reelection as
president.
———————————–
Transitional Issues–Deal Breakers?
———————————–
¶11. (SBU) Biti said that in exchange for support on
Amendment 18, the MDC was assured a new constitution would be
negotiated and put in place before elections. He and Ncube
said ZANU-PF was backing away from this, indicating a new
constitution should take effect after elections. The MDC
negotiators had received criticism–much of it
justified–from civil society for agreeing to Amendment 18
and negotiating a new constitution without input form civil
society. It was now important, they said, to allow civil
society to weigh in on the constitution and to implement it
before elections. ZANU-PF intransigence on this could be a
deal breaker.
¶12. (SBU) The date of the elections was also a potential
deal breaker according to the negotiators. Time was needed
to adequately conduct delimitation of parliamentary
constituencies, accomplish a fresh voter registration, and
allow free campaigning. The MDC was not yet suggesting a
date–this should be determined by the time necessary to
implement an agreement– but March might be too early.
———————————–
Role of the International Community
HARARE 00001080 003 OF 003
———————————–
¶13. (SBU) Asked about the role of the international
community, Ncube said it should for now stand still and await
the outcome of the negotiations. It should wholeheartedly
support the SADC process–“that’s all we have” at this point
in time. While existing pressures should be maintained, they
should not be increased.
¶14. (SBU) With regard to elections, Ncube said that
international observation would be important. Invitations to
observers was a sovereign decision; therefore, as a matter of
law, the MDC could not compel the GOZ to accept observers.
He hoped that provision for them would be negotiated as part
of an agreement. In any event, observers could apply to the
ZEC for authorization. Since this would be a transparent
process, it would be clear if the GOZ denied observation
status to interested individuals and groups.
——-
Comment
——-
¶15. (C) As Biti and Ncube prepared to return to South Africa
for a conclusion to the talks, they seemed pessimistic about
an overall result that would lead to free and fair elections.
As they acknowledged, in exchange for concessions on
Amendment 18, they had not yet received what they needed
most: implementation of a new constitution before elections,
an improved political environment, and a reasonable election
date. The MDC seems to be looking toward the future, after
Mugabe is presumably reelected. As Ncube said, the MDC did
not want to insist on all or nothing in the current
negotiations. It will take what it can out of the SADC
process, eg., a new constitution, a new electoral law, and
reforms to repressive legislation, hoping to lay the
political and legal framework for the post-Mugabe era. If an
agreement is reached and substantially implemented, so much
the better, but nobody for the moment seems to be counting on
this.
MCGEE
(52 VIEWS)
