Mugabe has a symbolic and executive role in unifying and managing often competing interest groups within and between the party, the security sector and the War Veterans. But the formalization and deepening of alliances between these three institutions over the past decade has been weakened by internal disputes. Reports that the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA) had been advocating for a Mnangagwa succession brought a fierce response from Mugabe, who warned that the War Veterans should not to behave like ‘dissidents’. The subsequent rupture between the President and the ZNLWVA became public in July 2016, when the ZNLWVA executive issued a press statement – termed the Raylton Declaration, after the sports club in Harare at which the meeting took place – announcing that the War Veterans would no longer support Mugabe. Although other ex-combatants’ organizations have maintained their support for Mugabe, the ZNLWVA is probably the largest and best known. While there are clearly divisions within this community, the possibility that a significant proportion of War Veterans may not vote for Mugabe or for ZANU-PF in 2018, and could instead become part of a broader opposition alliance, is one of the most significant challenges to both president and party in recent years. There is likely to be an extraordinary congress of the ZNLWVA before the end of 2016, and whether the association will re-elect its current leadership or bring in fresh, pro-Mugabe leaders remains to be seen. What does seem clear, however, is that the War Veterans’ support for ZANU-PF is no longer guaranteed.
See also another analysis by a United States think-tank
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