Movement for Democratic Change advisor Kathi Walther told a United States embassy official in Pretoria that MDC treasurer, Roy Bennett, was now against a government of national unity and described him as more “emotional than rational”.
“Roy has held more dead bodies and spent more time in jail than any other MDC leader so his outlook is different,” she said.
Walther said MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, his secretary-general Tendai Biti and the secretary-general of the other MDC faction Welshman Ncube were in favour of the GNU.
She said that although people on the front-line in Zimbabwe, like the youth, civic groups and victims of political violence, were against the GNU, they could be persuaded by Tsvangirai because he was still well respected.
Walther said Bennett had persuaded a number of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front legislators to join the GNU soon after the March elections but most of them were now unwilling to join because they were too scared.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA921, MDC LEADERSHIP GROWING DISCONNECTED FROM HOME
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|
Reference ID |
Created |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO3848
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #0921/01 1231037
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 021037Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4313
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 3643
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5560
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9778
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000921
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018
SUBJECT: MDC LEADERSHIP GROWING DISCONNECTED FROM HOME
PRETORIA 00000921 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. MDC Advisor Kathi Walther (protect) on 30
April revealed to PolOff that the Johannesburg-based MDC
leadership does not have a concrete plan for moving ahead, is
growing alienated from MDC members in Harare, and is
suffering from serious cash flow problems. The MDC
leadership believes a run-off the worst-case scenario, and is
seriously considering the idea of a government of national
unity (GNU). However, details have not yet been worked out
and not everyone is on board. Walther assessed that most MDC
leaders are open to the idea (which still has to be fleshed
out), but believes those on the front-line inside Zimbabwe —
the youth, activists, civil society, victims of political
violence — would have to be convinced. More to the point,
the devil is likely not in the details, but in the
overarching question of who would lead a GNU since many
ruling stalwarts would prefer a Mugabe-led GNU (at least at
first), while the MDC would prefer a Tsvangirai-led GNU. It
is not clear how this impasse could be resolved, but to do so
would require extensive negotiations. END SUMMARY.
—————————————
LEADERSHIP DISCONNECTED FROM GRASSROOTS
—————————————
¶2. (C) On 30 April, PolOff met with MDC advisor Kathi
Walther (protect) to discuss MDC’s immediate plans for the
future. Walther said she and another MDC advisor were
discussing exactly that late last night, but did not seem to
have a specific plan. She admitted the party needs a way
forward because there is a growing disconnect between MDC
members on the ground and the MDC leadership in Johannesburg.
As an example, Walther said that MDC members in Zimbabwe
have been convinced by state-run media that there will be a
run-off and consequently are preparing. Walther was
incredulous that MDC members would think a run-off was even a
viable option given the current circumstances, especially
since MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai and MDC Spokesperson
Tendai Biti have publicly stated they will not participate in
a run-off unless conditions change drastically. (NOTE:
Sydney Masamvu also told PolOff on 25 April that MDC MPs in
Zimbabwe have complained to him that they have received no
direction from MDC leadership and are unsure of what they are
supposed to be doing. END NOTE)
——————————————— ———
NOT EVERYONE ON BOARD FOR GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY
——————————————— ———
¶3. (C) The idea of a government of national unity, which
Walther referred to as a “government of national healing
(GNU),” has been discussed, but has not been universally
accepted by all MDC members. Walther said the MDC intended
to hold a “workshop” to flesh out the idea on 28 April, but
that the workshop was not as “robust” as it should have been
because many MDC members went instead to meet ANC President
Jacob Zuma. To date, the MDC envisions a GNU with 18 cabinet
positions to be split among ZANU and MDC according to the
percentage of votes won in the election. According to
Walther, the MDC originally considered only 15 positions but
expanded it to 18 after the inclusion of Mutumbara’s MDC
faction on 28 April. Walther could not remember which
ministries would stay or be streamlined but promised to find
Qministries would stay or be streamlined but promised to find
out. She also said that Tsvangirai firmly believes that the
Ministry of Defense should stay with ZANU-PF, something she
knows will not go over well with many who will argue they
have been main perpetrators of violence against the MDC.
¶4. (C) Tsvangirai, Biti, and Welshman Ncube are all in favor
of a GNU, she believes. However, she has her doubts about
Roy Bennett, whose stance has recently hardened. She
described him as “more emotional, than rational” these days,
adding that “Roy has held more dead bodies and spent more
time in jail than any other MDC leader so his outlook is
different.” She also believes that “people on the
front-line” inside Zimbabwe — the youth, civic groups, MDC
activists, victims of political violence — would not be keen
on the idea, but ultimately could be persuaded by Tsvangirai
who is still well-respected for his courage.
¶5. (C) As for ZANU-PF members being keen on the idea of a
GNU, Walther could not name anyone in Mugabe’s inner circle
who would be willing to join a GNU and/or acceptable to MDC.
She added that Bennett had convinced a significant number of
PRETORIA 00000921 002.2 OF 002
ZANU-PF MPs to join a transitional government the week after
the 29 March election, but that now he is unsure since many
MPs who were previously willing to come over are now too
scared. (NOTE: Walther also said some MDC MPs are also
scared and that some have requested to leave Zimbabwe. END
NOTE)
——————–
MDC HURTING FOR CASH
——————–
¶6. (C) Walther told PolOff repeatedly over the past week that
the MDC is cash-strapped. Bennett budgeted for the election,
but did not anticipate the results would be delayed this
long. The lack of funding, she said, is starting to
seriously affect their day-to-day operations. As an example,
she said that they cannot print the latest (fourth) edition
of Tsvangirai’s “Presidential Newsletter,” which is
distributed to MDC members in Zimbabwe, because they have run
out of paper and ink. (NOTE: Walther also added that in
addition to running out of paper, computers and documents
that were taken away during the 25 April raid on MDC
headquarters in Harare also has hurt their operations. For
example, she said she wanted to send out congratulatory
letters to all new MDC MPs, but that no one could provide her
with a complete list of names since they were on a computer
that was confiscated. END NOTE)
———————-
EMBASSY HARARE COMMENT
———————-
¶7. (C) Walther is correct that there is a growing disconnect
between MDC Johannesburg leadership and the MDC on the ground
in Harare. This is largely due to the continued absence of
Tsvangirai from Zimbabwe. There is apparently little
SIPDIS
communication between Tsvangirai and South African-based
brain trust of Strive Masiyiwa, Roy Bennett, and Walther
(supplemented by Melinda Farris and Tendai Biti when they are
in Johannesburg) and MDC leaders in Harare. As to a GNU, the
devil is not in the details but in the overarching question
of who would lead a GNU. Elements of the ruling part have
expressed interest in a GNU, but with Mugabe remaining in
office for a period of time. A Tsvangirai-led GNU would be
unacceptable to them. Conversely, the MDC would expect,
based on election results, Tsvangirai to lead a GNU. It is
not clear how this impasse could be resolved, but to do so
would undoubtedly require extensive negotiations.
¶8. (C) It appears that the MDC and Tsvangirai at this point
in time are intending to boycott a runoff election because of
the ongoing violence. There are, however, Mugabe opponents
who believe the MDC should participate in an election, and
that it would have a good chance of success. Mutambara
faction secretary-general Welshman Ncube told diplomats on 29
April that he believed the MDC could win a runoff election,
despite the violence, due to strong and growing anti-Mugabe
sentiment. While he supported participation in such an
election, he acknowledged that the final decision would be
made by Tsvangirai and his MDC faction, and that the
Mutambara faction would go along. Ncube noted that the two
factions were not reunited; Mutumbara and his supporters had
agreed to support Tsvangirai in a runoff election, but beyond
that, including relations in parliament, everything was
subject to negotiation.
BALL
(20 VIEWS)
