Vice-President Joice Mujuru has a high chance of succeeding President Robert Mugabe but her fear of Mugabe is affecting her ability to lead, the legislator for Uzumba/Pfungwe Simba Mudarikwa said.
He was commenting on the state of the party which he said was badly fractured but was holding together because of the threat from the Movement for Democratic Change and foreign pressure.
United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Charles Ray appeared to be agreeing with Mudarikwa saying: “There is little doubt that if a secret party election were held, Mugabe and his inner circle would lose their positions. But Mugabe, aided by the securocrats and through fear, still has control.”
Full cable:
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000093 SIPDIS AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN ADDIS FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/10 TAGS: PREL
[External Political Relations], PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], ZI [Zimbabwe]
SUBJECT: A ZANU-PF MP’s observations on the political landscape and U.S.-Zimbabwe relations REF: HARARE 87; HARARE 36 CLASSIFIED BY: Charles A. Ray, Ambassador, STATE, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
¶1. (SBU) Pol/econ chief met February 9 with Simba Mudarikwa, a ZANU-PF MP from Mashonaland East. Mudarikwa, who is also a businessman, offered his observations on various topics including the state of ZANU-PF, indigenization, and elections.
¶2. (C) ZANU-PF. Mudarikwa described the party as badly fractured. It was like a stick of TNT, susceptible to ignition and disintegration. ZANU-PF was holding together because of the threat of MDC-T and foreign pressure. He likened ZANU-PF to a troop of baboons incessantly fighting among themselves, but coming together to face an external threat. New leadership was essential and would emerge as some of the old timers, including Robert Mugabe, left the scene. Mudarikwa opined that Vice President Joice Mujuru or S.K. Moyo (former ambassador to South African and now party chair) were possibilities, although Mujuru’s fear of Mugabe was affecting her ability to lead.
¶3. (C) MDC-T. According to Mudarikwa, MDC-T is alienating supporters because of corruption. He pointed to the Harare suburb of Chitungwiza where MDC-T is investigating its councilors for being on the take. Residents of Chitungwiza blame the party. Mudarikwa commented that part of the problem was that many MDC-T local councilors and parliamentarians elected in 2008 had no independent income. Unable to survive on their US$200/month salaries, they were now turning to graft. He also noted that the national party was not enabling parliamentarians to demonstrate, e.g. by bringing home pork, that they were working for their constituents.
¶4. (C) Elections. Mudarikwa believed elections would take place in 2012 or 2013. Parliamentarians from all parties, particularly those who had no income before coming into office, had no interest in running again before necessary. They would try to stall the constitutional process.
¶5. (C) Global Political Agreement (GPA). Mudarikwa thought there would be slow progress. In his opinion, the most important achievement of the GPA was the sidelining of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono.
¶6. (C) Indigenization. Taking an opposite view to Minister of Youth and Indigenization Saviour Kasukuwere (Ref A), Mudarikwa said the government’s indigenization program benefitted nobody accept those who were already wealthy. It did nothing for his constituents, who couldn’t afford to buy into companies and were living hand-to-mouth.
¶7. (C) Economic Recovery. Mudarikwa said a primary focus should be communal lands where 80 percent of Zimbabweans live. Before the economy collapsed, he said the communal areas produced 80 percent of farm output consumed in the country. (NOTE: These numbers are indicative but not accurate. More than 30 percent of Zimbabweans live in urban areas, so somewhat less than 80 percent live on communal lands. But communal lands have long been the main source of Zimbabwe’s domestic food supply. END NOTE.) Production dramatically decreased with the collapse of the economy as small farmers were no longer able to access inputs. Another factor was the Grain Marketing Board’s requirement that crops be sold to it. It then failed to pay farmers. Mudarikwa stated that international assistance would be necessary to resuscitate the economy. But HARARE 00000093 002 OF 002 lesser steps were important. He volunteered that the Ambassador’s Self Help Program had once been present in communal areas. It was a powerful indication of U.S. interest in helping Zimbabweans, and was of tremendous assistance to those who benefitted from projects.
¶8. (C) Sanctions and ZDERA. Mudarikwa said sanctions on individuals should remain if justified by the behavior of these individuals. Sanctions on parastatals that were contributing or could contribute to the economy should be lifted. With regard to ZDERA, Mudarikwa acknowledged that the IMF and World Bank had ceased activities in Zimbabwe before ZDERA was enacted. The economy was already on a downhill trajectory because of misguided economic policies and the disastrous land reform policy. But the passage of ZDERA was like slashing an already deflating tire. Many Zimbabweans viewed ZDERA as an attempt to hurt them when they were already suffering. As such, said Mudarikwa, ZDERA has a large symbolic value and should be repealed.
¶9. (C) Diamonds. Mudarikwa sits on the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Mines and Energy which has been holding hearings on Chiadzwa (Ref B). He said Minister of Mines Obert Mpofu was a crook. The committee had discovered irregularities in the partnerships of the Zimbabwe Minerals Development to form Mbada and Canadile and illegal appointments by Mpofu to the Mbada board of directors. ————-
COMMENT ————-
¶10. (C) Mudarikwa’s comments on ZANU-PF are representative of a large part of the party. There is little doubt that if a secret party election were held, Mugabe and his inner circle would lose their positions. But Mugabe, aided by the securocrats and through fear, still has control. On sanctions and ZDERA, most ZANU-PF members, even moderates, tell us they believe sanctions, especially on parastatals, and ZDERA have hurt the economy (though they cannot cite evidence for this claim). Mudarikwa’s view is more nuanced than most. Mudarikwa’s view on ZDERA is what many in the MDC-T have been telling us: It is serving no real purpose other than to provide a convenient whipping boy for ZANU-PF. END COMMENT RAY
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