National Constitutional Assembly chairman Lovemore Madhuku predicted that the Movement for Democratic Change would not win more than 50 seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections because of institutionalised unfairness.
He said that while physical violence was down, numerous other factors created an uneven election field.
He cited unequal media access, the lack of independent government institutions, and repressive legislation as examples.
Madhuku acknowledged strong MDC support but said he believed that institutionalised unfairness would prevent the MDC from winning more than 50 seats.
The party won 41 seats down from 57 in 2000.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 05HARARE474, HOUSE STAFF DELEGATION VISITS ZIMBABWE
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
300957Z Mar 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000474
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ZI VIP
SUBJECT: HOUSE STAFF DELEGATION VISITS ZIMBABWE
REF: A) HARARE 468 B) HARARE 469
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (SBU) Majority Staffer Malik Chaka and Minority Staffer
Pearl-Alice Marsh from the House of Representatives
International Relations Committee (HIRC) visited Zimbabwe
March 20-25, traveling to Bulwayo March 21-22. In Bulawayo
the Staff Delegation met renegade independent candidate
Jonathan Moyo (Ref A) as well as with MDC M.P. David Coltart
and the town’s MDC mayor. In Harare, they met with MDC
leader Morgan Tsvangarai (Ref B), two of the three Mutare
Bishops, as well as Anti-Corruption/Monopolies Minister
Didimyus Mutasa, Reserve Bank (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono, and
Media and Information Commission Chairman Tafataona Mahoso.
In addition, the delegation met with a variety of leaders of
civil society groups. The StaffDel’s meeting with MDC
President Morgan Tsvangirai is reported in ref B.
¶2. (C) Both government and opposition politicians were upbeat
about their parties, electoral prospects. With some
exceptions, MDC officials acknowledged that the recent
election climate had been more peaceful than in 2002, but
they, the Bishops, and the civil society leaders urged the
U.S. to continue to press Zimbabwe,s neighbors to call the
election fairly. Neither media regulator Mahoso nor RBZ
Governor Gono offered much promise of loosening the GOZ’s
grip on the press and the economy. Mutasa acknowledged that
the GOZ would request international food aid shortly after
elections, which he blamed on drought, while the local head
of WFP attributed the food crisis to government
mismanagement. End Summary.
———————————–
MDC Believes Tide Turning Their Way
———————————–
¶3. (C) Bulawayo’s MDC executive mayor Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube
said Bulawayo was peaceful and likely to remain so. He
reported that police were not hostile to the MDC and in fact
were working with the MDC, in many instances offering
invaluable tips. Nonetheless, the ruling party continued to
abuse its control of government resources. He predicted that
the MDC would take at least 80 seats nationally, “70 if we
fail completely.” He urged the USG to pursue quiet diplomacy
and not play into Mugabe,s hands by taking the lead in
condemning him. Mbeki and other African leaders would be
more effective in that regard.
¶4. (C) At dinner March 21, David Coltart and Thokozani Khupe,
MDC MP candidates in Bulawayo constituencies, said the
environment was generally peaceful. However, some people had
been beaten or threatened, and food continued to be a source
of ruling party leverage. Still, the MDC’s surprisingly wide
exposure and a more constructive police posture ) three
village headmen were arrested in Lupane, for example, for
tearing down MDC posters ) were opening the door. Indeed,
Coltart, who just two months ago told the Ambassador that the
MDC would be lucky to take 25 seats, forecast it would win at
least half the contested seats (i.e. 60) even accounting for
ruling party skullduggery. He urged the USG to “be bolder”
with South Africa and Botwsana and to back tough rhetoric
with action.
——————————————— ——-
ZANU-PF Official Believes Party Still Resonates with Voters
——————————————— ——-
¶5. (C) Minister for Anti-Corruption/Monopolies and ZANU-PF
Secretary for Administration Didymus said Zimbabwe was
SIPDIS
“grateful” for sanctions because they had pushed the country
to redouble its economic efforts. The ruling party wanted
better relations with the United States and the West and felt
that its isolation was unwarranted. However, he indicated
that Zimbabwe was unlikely to take the first overt step
toward rapprochement since “it wasn,t the one who closed the
door.” He asserted that the election atmosphere was “less
violent than before”, would be violence-free on election day,
and would be “freer and fairer than all past elections.”
¶6. (C) Mutasa said that renewed drought meant that the GOZ
would require international food assistance again in spite of
earlier official GOZ assurances to the contrary. He said he
had advised British officials of the situation that morning
but did not indicate when a formal appeal would be
forthcoming. (Note: Local WFP representatives are betting on
early April, after the elections.) Mutusa apologized for
Tsholotsho’s District Administrator,s ejection of the
SIPDIS
StaffDel following their March 22 meeting with Moyo (Ref A).
——————————————— —-
Media Czar and Central Banker Backpedal on Press/Economic
Liberalization
——————————————— —-
¶7. (C) Media and Information Commission (MIC) Chairman
Tafataona Mahoso briefed the StaffDel on current media
legislation. Mahoso said the GOZ’s goal was developing
community papers that served the country’s interests, rather
than “commercial papers” funded by foreign capital. In that
regard, Mahoso claimed the GOZ had closed the opposition
Daily News and Weekly Times due to these papers, failure to
adhere to licensing and registration procedures designed to
protect the “national content” in Zimbabwe,s press.
¶8. (C) Reserve Bank (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono told the
StaffDel that “2004 marked a turnaround of the economy,”
explaining that year-to-year inflation has fallen from 624 to
127 percent, which he acknowledged was still among the
highest in the world. As to the recent slide of the
zimdollar on parallel markets, Gono acknowledged that the RBZ
had stopped chasing down parallel traders during the election
campaign and argued that he was unable to defend the
zimdollar’s value due to pre-election expenses. Gono refused
to be drawn out on the GOZ’s post-election economic plans,
such as a rumored devaluation.
¶9. (C) Gono said the GOZ’s goal was “command agriculture,”
suggesting the GOZ would intervene further in this
beleaguered sector. The RBZ Governor said he wanted the GOZ
to issue tradable 99-year leases to land reform
beneficiaries, enabling them to transfer and borrow against
their assigned properties. Yet when pressed, Gono
backtracked from this market-oriented approach and told the
StaffDel that the GOZ was not prepared to fully relinquish
control of the properties and would forcibly remove any of
the 140,000 land reform beneficiaries who were not farming
“seriously.”
——————————–
Bishops Also Predict Good Result
——————————–
¶10. (C) Mutare Bishops Trevor Manhanga (Evangelical) and
Patrick Mutume (Catholic) told the Staffdel that it was too
early to predict the outcome of the elections but said the
MDC would probably at least maintain the same number of
seats. The elections could not be considered free and fair
because the playing field was tilted in favor of ZANU-PF by
factors such as restrictive legislation such as the Access to
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) and the
Public Order and Security Act (POSA), rumors spread by
ZANU-PF supporters that votes would not be secret, the errors
in the voters’ roll, the disenfranchisement of the Diaspora,
and the likelihood that ZANU-PF supporters would attempt to
stack the queues early in the day and prevent MDC supporters
from voting. It was also not clear what role the reduction
in violence would play in voters’ willingness to vote their
conscience, after so many of years of violence and
intimidation
¶11. (C) The Bishops added that ZANU-PF Secretary for
Information and Publicity Nathan Shamuyarira had approached
them about brokering negotiations with the MDC after the
election. Shamuyarira had also told them ZANU-PF wanted
their help in restoring the legitimacy of the government in
the eyes of the international community. In that regard,
Manhanga said the international community should recognize
the steps the GOZ had taken and use that as a basis to
further engage with the GOZ. However, he said these changes
did not represent “the whole loaf” and that the international
community should continue to press for reforms. The Bishops
added that it was important to understand Mugabe’s
psychology; Mugabe wanted to leave the presidency but needed
a 2/3’s majority in Parliament to do so on his own terms.
Without such a majority he would be forced to negotiate with
the opposition.
——————————————— –
Civil Society Leader Cite Uneven Playing Field
——————————————— –
¶12. (C) National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) Chairman
Lovemore Madhuku noted that while physical violence was down,
numerous other factors nonetheless created an uneven election
field. He cited unequal media access, the lack of
independent government institutions, and repressive
legislation as examples. Madhuku acknowledged strong MDC
support but said he believed that institutionalized
unfairness would prevent the MDC from winning more than 50
seats. He advocated focusing less on election results and
more on mass action from opponents of the GOZ to press for
reforms such as revising the constitution and repealing
repressive legislation.
——————————————— —-
USAID &Partners8 Concerned by Potential for Fraud
——————————————— —-
¶13. (C) USAID hosted a lunch for the Staffdel with eight
“core partners” from civil society (N.B. The NCA is not a
core partner.) The participants said the ruling party would
try to influence the outcome of the elections via fraud and
intimidation. They agreed with the Ambassador that the
elections needed to be judged against SADC guidelines rather
than past elections. In that regard, Brian Kagoro from the
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition noted that the South African
national observer team in 2002 had made recommendations that
had not fulfilled and that could be also be used to assess
the election. Some participants expressed concern over the
role of SADC observers, who may already have prejudged the
elections as free and fair, but one participant noted that
the representatives from Mauritius had told him they would
not go along with a whitewash.
———————————-
Pollster Predicts Good MDC Showing
———————————-
¶14. (SBU) Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) Researcher
Charles Mangongera said results from the organization,s
December 2004/January 2005 survey suggested a healthy
election environment: 86% of voters said they plan to vote
and 75% said they trusted the voter rolls. At the same time,
72% knew nothing about the government,s electoral changes
and only 16% knew about the SADC guidelines, indicating that
the electorate was largely unaware of the criteria that will
be used to judge whether the election is free and fair.
Overall, Mangongera said he believed the MDC would keep its
current seats, especially in urban areas, and would surprise
ZANU-PF by gaining some in rural areas. While he said he
expected violence to remain low after elections, he
emphasized that the political freedom would remain limited.
————————–
Food Security and HIV/AIDS
————————–
¶15. (SBU) Beyond election-related meetings, the StaffDel also
attended a food security briefing from local representatives
of the UN’s Food for Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World
Food Program (WFP) as well as NGOs C-Safe and FEWSNET and a
roundtable discussion of the HIV/AIDS situation. On food
security, the Staffdel,s briefers painted a grim picture of
the coming maize harvest, arguing that the GOZ could require
up to 1,000,000 tons of grain imports or donations to feed
the population. WFP Director Kevin Farrell said
“ever-present centralization” in the buying and selling of
maize by the GOZ’s parastatal Grain Marketing Board (GMB) “is
really the problem,” rather than recent droughts.
Representatives from a variety of USG-funded HIV/AIDS and
health organizations told the StaffDel that they needed and
could use more human resources. Unlike most other African
countries, they said Zimbabwe had the capacity and
infrastructure to absorb funding, but would lose this
advantage without forthcoming support.
——-
Comment
——-
¶16. (C) We have commented elsewhere on the upcoming election,
including our scene-setter, Harare 467. That said, we were
struck by the Staffdel,s enthusiastic reception. In spite
of busy pre-election campaigning, both government and
opposition leaders were enthusiastic about interacting with
staffers Chaka and Marsh. Nearly every interlocutor we
sought out readily consented to a meeting and many other
local figures called to ask for a spot on the agenda. The
delegation also generated considerable media interest. Post
believes this delegation demonstrated a high demand for
future Congressional delegations, which we would welcome.
¶17. (U) The StaffDel did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
Dell
(11 VIEWS)
