If Mugabe goes…..

Until recently Zvobgo's main contender appeared to be party secretary for information and Minister of Industry and Commerce, Nathan Shamuyarira, but observers now say he can only be a kingmaker and not a major player himself. They say although Shamuyarira had worked his way up from a disgraced member of the Front for the Liberation of Zimbabwe (FROLIZI), an organisation most people, including himself, would like wiped out of the history books, Shamuyarira's main problem was that he allowed himself (and revelled in it) to be considered President Mugabe's closest ally and the person most likely to succeed him.

"With people saying Mugabe must go, everyone who has been closely associated with Mugabe stands a very little chance to take over," one observer noted. "People here are saying they do not want another (Julius) Nyerere-type of administration where a retired president can continue to pull the strings from his retirement home." Age too is not on Shamuyarira's side. He is 69. Besides, he is Zezuru, President Mugabe's tribe. There is general a feeling of "not another Zezuru" for president.

While there are a number of younger and promising candidates like Higher Education Minister Ignatius Chombo and Information Minister Chen Chimutengwende, they have spoiled their chances by being too close to Mugabe. The only young minister who stands a chance is deputy Mines and Environment Minister Edward Chindori-Chininga. A former diplomat he has been quietly building his own constituency. He has also quietly endeared himself with the media and has proved on a number of occasions that he can stand on his own.

Not to be written off too, is Minister of State Security, Sidney Sekeramayi and former diplomat John Tsimba. Although he controls a powerful ministry and sits in the politburo, Sekeramayi has been too quiet and he does not have the charisma and dynamism required to convince or capture a national audience. But as the country's chief "spook", he may have something up his sleeve. Tsimba on the other hand has a strong constituency. He even at one time won the provincial leadership for Mashonaland East but decided to step down to make room for another former diplomat and now Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa. With the current state of the economy, Murerwa stands no chance. Although he is not to blame for the current economic woes, everyone seems to be shifting the blame on him and being the gentleman that he is, he has done very little to defend himself.

From the Midlands, the strongest contender seems to be Justice Minister and party secretary for finance, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Age seems to be in his favour. He is 56. Although on paper Richard Hove, the country's planning commissioner (a cabinet post) and a member of the powerful politburo, is the Midlands boss, he has no constituency. He was just handed over the mantle by Muzenda when he left the Midlands for Masvingo.

Mnangagwa faces two problems though. He is not likely to contest Zvobgo as this would split the vote ( Karanga versus Karanga). Another big problem is that he is closely linked to the massacres in Matebeleland as he was the security minister during the disturbances. Some observers, believe he could have scored some points if he had apologised, like Zvobgo did.

Mnangagwa has already stated through the weekly Mirror that he has no presidential ambitions. But one observer succintly put it: "As we all know, guys with presidential ambitions start innuendoes in the press, then, in response to the item they 'planted' in the press declare that they are not interested in the job. And as debate increases, the tone slowly but surely turns to I am merely a humble servant of the people, and if the people's wish is that I become President, I will make myself available".

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