If Mugabe goes…..

One of President Mugabe's biggest challenges at the moment, however, seems to be coming from the labour movement. Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) secretary-general Morgan Tsvangirai, continues to be a pain in the neck. Although ZCTU president Gibson Sibanda has also been riding on the wave of popular discontent, he can only hope to be accommodated among the new leaders of Matebeleland.

Tsvangirai on the other hand has all the qualities of a national leader. He is an eloquent speaker, just like Mugabe was during his hey-days. He has youth on his side. He is only 46. And he has the workers behind him, which is a powerful tool at the moment as workers can cause havoc at any time. Of late he has been attracting huge crowds at workers' rallies, the kind of crowds Mugabe enjoyed in the early 1980s. Tsvangirai has become such a powerful political force that though he may not be presidential material at the moment, he is definitely a kingmaker. Anyone aspiring for the country's top post has to bring him to his side.

While on paper, there are more than 20 political parties, and 10 contested the 1995 elections, there is virtually no opposition party one can talk about. The parties all seem to have sunk into oblivion soon after the elections and are likely to resurface in the year 2000 when the next elections are due. Besides, the more popular opposition parties like the Zimbabwe Unity Movement, the United Parties and ZANU-Ndonga are led by the same "old geriatrics" who cannot seriously challenge Mugabe. Edgar Tekere of ZUM is 61. Abel Muzorewa is 73 and Ndabaningi Sithole is 78.

But perhaps President Mugabe's biggest challenge at the moment is the economy. It is increasingly becoming apparent that there is no way he can turn it around. The country has been on a downslide over the past six months and all efforts to turn it around have failed. Inflation which was down to 14 percent in September was more than double that at 29 percent in May. The long-awaited International Monetary Fund stand-by facility approved on June 1, has so far not restored confidence in the economy if the key industrial index of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is anything to go by.

Ed: How much things remain the same in Zimbabwe. What is your take

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