If Mugabe goes…..

Zvobgo has always proved he can stand on his own and has established a strong constituency, which perceives him as an honest politician who is not corrupt. Although he owns several businesses in Masvingo he has always openly declared the businesses. Most of his colleagues hide behind relatives or use other people as fronts. Zvobgo, like his protege, Mavhaire, was fired as party chairman of Masvingo in 1986 but he bounced back through popular support at the 1989 congress and went straight to the politburo.

As the party legal secretary, he knows all the weaknesses of the constitution and has also been advocating the limiting of the presidential term of office as well as the reintroduction of an Upper House, the Senate. Already a close colleague of ailing Vice-President Joshua Nkomo, Zvobgo scored a major plus for himself when he publicly apologised for the massacres of the people in Matebeleland during the 1980s civil strife. The massacres have been a major bone of contention especially with the people of Matebeleland who more than 10 years after the unity accord of 1987 do not see any tangible benefits apart from the peace itself. The victims were not compensated and some are still trying to get death certificates, and therefore benefits, of their spouses or parents who disappeared.

Observers view Zvobgo's apology as a major political victory not emulated by anyone else. Besides, these observers say, he really had nothing to apologise for as he was not in the security council during the disturbances. Although regarded as the leader of Masvingo, Karangas also constitute a majority in the Midlands, which has a sprinkling of Ndebele. This further boosts Zvobgo's constituency as the Karangas constitute more than one-third of Zimbabwe's population and are now scattered all over the country. And with his main opponent for leadership of Masvingo, Vice-President Simon Muzenda out, largely because he is too old for the job and would not stand a chance anyway, the field seems almost clear for Zvobgo.

While some people argue that Zvobgo, at 63, is now too old others argue that people are not likely to look at this considering that he will be replacing a 74-year old. He will be some 11 years younger and could therefore still be below 74 even if he serves two five-year terms.

The other person from Masvingo one could look at is his protege Dzikamayi Mavhaire who too has built a strong constituency. Mavhaire's suspension has turned him into a hero. He has robbed his main opponent, Masvingo provincial governor Josiah Hungwe, Muzenda's man, of all ammunition.

Also not to be written off is the former air force commander Josiah Tungamirai. Tungamirai has youth on his side. He is only 50. He is a self-made man. A soldier, Tungamirai became a pilot when he was transferred to the air force and still managed to do a first degree and then a master's degree. And as one observer put it, he is the only person, as chairman of the youth wing, who had the guts to tell Mugabe to his face: "Your excellency the party is in a crisis and only a fool can claim otherwise." He also belongs to the powerful Zvobgo camp.

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