If Mugabe goes…..

With only three seats out of 150 belonging to the "opposition", President Mugabe is virtually assured that nothing of the sort will happen. Besides, over the years he has craftily manipulated the composition of the House to ensure that alliances would be difficult to forge except in his favour. In 1980 for example, out of the 80 seats for blacks, Masvingo and Midlands had 23, Mashonaland 31 and the two power brokers, Matebeleland and Manicaland 15 and 11, respectively. By 1995, out of the 120 elected seats, Masvingo and Midlands had only increased to 29, Matebeleland because of Bulawayo had jumped to 23, Manicaland was still at 14 while Mashonaland had skyrocketed to 54 with 20 of the seats in the capital Harare.

With the 30 reserved seats filled by Mugabe by appointment, he therefore can safely tuck in 84 seats, a majority in the 150-member house, only through the support from Mashonaland. Besides, he has also weeded out all educated people from the armed forces who could have engineered a coup, leaving loyalists who are beholden to him. Defence forces commander, Vitalis Zvinavashe, though a Karanga has no soldiers of his own since there is army commander Constantine Chiwenga and air force commander Perrence Shiri.

President Mugabe is also surviving because there is no opposition to talk about. Although on paper there are more than 20 opposition parties in the country, only one has two seats in Parliament. His lieutenants, though not willing to go down with him, are scared of the fact that there is no future outside ZANU-PF unless they walk out en-masse. The labour movement, perhaps the strongest force at the moment, seems to be preoccupied with the politics of the stomach.

Although President Mugabe continues to hang on to power, the situation is so tense that when ZANU-PF Harare provincial chairman Rodrick Nyandoro tried to denigrate Masvingo Central MP Dzikamayi Mavhaire for saying in Parliament "the President must go", at the funeral of veteran nationalist Misheck Mushayakarara in Mugabe's own home area of Zvimba he was told to shut up because there were other capable leaders who could take over.

The problem, however, seems to be who can take over. With his two Vice-Presidents Joshua Nkomo (81) and Simon Muzenda (76) already out of the running because of their age and a lucrative retirement pension already lined up for them, the strongest contender at the moment is Masvingo supremo Eddison Zvobgo. Although at one time he took a South African publication to court for saying he had presidential ambitions, Zvobgo has been quietly building up his constituency following his demotion to Minister without Portfolio soon after the 1996 presidential elections.

The demotion also followed a serious car accident while Zvobgo was campaigning for Mugabe. Reports say he was so bitter about the demotion that he is not receiving any government salary because as minister without portfolio, he says he is "doing nothing" and should not be paid.

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