Former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano said President Robert Mugabe was very focused on the succession issue and he was willing to step aside before elections in 2008 if, by doing so, he would not be seen as giving in to outside pressure.
Mugabe also wanted to identify a strong successor and to make sure that the Movement for Democratic Change no longer threatened to split apart Zimbabwe.
Chissano said this just before he stepped down after 18 years in power. But in what appeared to be a reference to Mugabe he said that his stepping down did not mean that other leaders should follow his example.
Chissano was a long-time friend of Mugabe and often referred to him as “brother” and “coach”.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 05MAPUTO255, MOZAMBIQUE: PRESIDENT CHISSANO RETROSPECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MAPUTO 000255
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/S – TREGER
STATE PLEASE PASS TO MCC GAULL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2015
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: PRESIDENT CHISSANO RETROSPECTIVE
REF: 2004 MAPUTO 1533
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime, for reasons 1.4 (b/d)
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (C) On February 2 President Joaquim Chissano stepped
down as leader of the Republic of Mozambique after 18 years
in power. He took over from Samora Machel in 1986, after
Mozambique’s first president was killed in a airplane
crash. In 1994 Chissano was elected president in
Mozambique’s first multi-party elections and was narrowly
re-elected to another five-year-term in December 1999.
Under his leadership the ruling party FRELIMO adopted a
strategy of accommodation toward the civil war rebel
movement RENAMO, negotiating an agreement in 1992 that
allowed RENAMO and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to retain
substantial power as a political party.
¶2. (C) Although Machel laid the groundwork, Chissano
oversaw the successful re-orientation of Mozambique’s
economy away from an Eastern bloc-supported, socialist
system toward a more free market, private sector-led regime
following strict World Bank and IMF guidelines. Mozambique
experienced impressive, though somewhat unbalanced, growth
under his tutelage after the war ended in 1992, with
several mega-projects – a gas pipeline and a massive
aluminum smelter – responsible for a large share of the
gains. Nonetheless overall poverty levels have declined
significantly around the country as a result of recovery
from war and government investment in infrastructure and
rural development. On the negative side of the ledger,
Chissano did very little to rein in corrupt associates and
government officials. During his tenure as President of
the African Union (AU), Chissano sought to build stronger
African institutions and to find African-led solutions to
problems facing the continent. End Summary.
—————–
The End of An Era
—————–
¶3. (U) On February 2 President Joaquim Chissano handed
power over to his successor, Armando Guebuza, after serving
as Mozambique’s president since late 1986. An early,
prominent member of the Mozambican Liberation Front
(FRELIMO), Chissano was Foreign Minister in the first
decade after Mozambique’s independence from Portuguese
colonial rule and assumed the presidency in 1986 when
Samora Machel was killed in a suspicious plane crash. To
end Mozambique’s long-running civil war which began in
1976, Chissano encouraged negotiations with the rebel
movement RENAMO. (Note: Guebuza was the lead negotiator
for FRELIMO. End Note.) In October 1992 Chissano and
RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama signed the Rome Peace
Agreement. Chissano defeated Dhlakama in Mozambique’s
first multi-party elections in 1994. He was re-elected to
another term in December 1999, again beating Dhlakama,
although this time by a very narrow and disputed margin.
¶4. (C) Chissano may have toyed with running for another
term, which was allowed under the Constitution. However
after some wrangling at the Central Committee meeting in
December 2001 in which Guebuza and FRELIMO hardliners
bested Chissano and the moderates, Chissano had come to
terms with leaving office. No doubt he was influenced by
the positive example of Nelson Mandela next door in South
Africa.
————–
Bringing Peace
————–
¶5. (U) Shortly after assuming power in 1986, Chissano took
the first steps towards a peaceful resolution of the civil
war, secretly utilizing the Catholic Church to engage
RENAMO in dialogue. In 1990 he oversaw the approval of a
new constitution, which gave Mozambique a multi-party
political system, universal suffrage, an independent
judiciary, freedom of the press, the right to strike, and
the framework for a market economy. The constitution
undercut much of RENAMO’s ideology — that FRELIMO stood
for socialism. Hastened by the weakening of RENAMO’s
support from neighboring South Africa, where apartheid was
on the way out, a peace agreement was finally signed by
RENAMO’s leader Afonso Dhlakama and President Chissano in
Rome on October 4, 1992. The United Nations quickly
deployed peacekeepers to supervise the cease-fire
agreement, demobilize the soldiers from the two sides, help
resettle the millions of refugees both internally and from
the neighboring countries, and assist in the preparation of
the first multi-party elections scheduled for late 1994.
Though Chissano has claimed much of the credit for bringing
peace to Mozambique, various African statesmen, including
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, played important roles
in moving the negotiation process forward, as well.
————————————–
The Road to Recovery: Economic Reforms
————————————–
¶6. (U) Chissano presided over far-reaching economic reforms
during the first half of his tenure. FRELIMO dropped its
official Marxist-Leninist designation and began to
liberalize its economy with an IMF-supported Economic
Rehabilitation Program (PRE), a precursor to today’s Action
Plan for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (PARPA). Fiscal
reforms were introduced, including a value-added tax and
reform of the customs service, which improved the
government’s revenue collection abilities. Mozambique also
embarked on an extensive privatization program. When the
process ended in the mid-1990’s close to 1,000 companies
had been privatized.
¶7. (C) Chissano weathered considerable criticism during
this period. FRELIMO conservatives, who are generally more
nationalistic and less open to market reforms, accused him
of giving into demands of the multilateral financial
institutions at the expense of the population. Trade
unions blamed the government for implementing policies that
caused mass layoffs. Privatization was messy and riddled
with corrupt practices, including awarding contracts in an
opaque manner, bribery and the stripping of company assets.
Nearly all of the privatized companies ended up in the
hands of FRELIMO members. RENAMO attacked Chissano for
cronyism and gained considerable political support among
those disillusioned by the privatization process.
————
Rapid Growth
————
¶8. (U) As a result of economic liberalization and massive
donor assistance, Chissano’s Mozambique has become one of
the fastest growing economies in southern Africa. Since
1994 GDP growth has averaged 8 percent per year. In the
early years recovery projects helped the economy rebound
from devastation wrought by the civil war, nearly all of
them funded by foreign donors. Grain production rose from
760,000 tons in 1993 to 1.8 million tons in 2003. The
government’s repair and maintenance program reduced the
percentage of impassable roads from 44 percent in 1994 to
just eight percent ten years later. Mozambique’s once
massive foreign debt was lowered through forgiveness and
rescheduling under the IMF’s Heavily Indebted Poor
Countries (HIPC) and Enhanced HIPC initiatives; in 2002 the
USG forgave all Mozambican official bilateral debt. The
Chissano government succeeded in attracting major investors
for new mega-projects: a natural gas pipeline to South
Africa, the construction of a massive green-field aluminum
smelter, and development of lucrative coal reserves in the
west of the country. In 2003 and 2004 Mozambique’s
official debt was assigned an international credit rating
of B/B+ by Fitch Ratings, reflecting Mozambique’s positive
track record on economic reforms, political stability,
strong economic growth, openness to FDI, and expanding
exports.
¶9. (U) Exceptional growth notwithstanding, Mozambique still
faces significant development challenges. Although the
economy has grown tremendously under Chissano’s rule, many
ordinary Mozambicans have seen little change. The level of
poverty declined from 69.4 percent in 1998 to 54.1 percent
in 2003, but this means that the majority of the population
still remains below the poverty line. The illiteracy rate
is about 40 percent and infant disease and mortality rates
are among the highest in Africa. Life expectancy at birth
is 46 years, and this figure is expected to decline into
the 30’s by 2010 due to the worsening AIDS epidemic
(Mozambique’s prevalence rate is currently at 15 percent of
adults). Mozambique remains very dependent on foreign
assistance: the donor community funds approximately 60
percent of the national budget.
———-
Corruption
———-
¶10. (C) Chissano was ineffective at reining in corruption
in his government, except when foreign funds were directly
involved. A scandal in the mid-90’s prompted some donors
to threaten to reduce assistance, but they backed down when
the government moved quickly to replenish their programs.
In the latter half of his tenure, under pressure from donor
governments, senior officials repeatedly promised to act.
In 2001 an anti-corruption unit was set up in the Attorney
General’s office. However no one of consequence has been
punished and overall very little has been done to combat
corruption. Several wealthy Indo-Mozambicans were
eventually arrested for the assassination in 2000 of a
prominent investigative journalist, Carlos Cardoso, who had
uncovered a major bank fraud scheme involving millions of
dollars. But their arrest was for murder, not corruption.
Chissano’s son, Nyimpine, was called to testify over links
to the Cardoso killing in trial proceedings followed very
closely throughout Mozambique. Ultimately, though, the
judge in the case let Nyimpine off, a decision that many
saw as a miscarriage of justice for political purposes. In
a tacit admission that government dishonesty has increased
under Chissano, his successor, Armando Guebuza, made
fighting corruption a central feature of his electoral
campaign.
———————
Political Development
———————
¶11. (C) Chissano’s essential legacy in the political arena
is that two parties once at war with each other — FRELIMO
and RENAMO — now contend peacefully for power. The 1990
constitution opened the way for RENAMO to play a role in
governing the country. Since the signing of the peace
agreement in 1992 there have been three sets of general
(presidential and legislative) elections, with FRELIMO and
RENAMO the two dominant players. The elections have all
been relatively free and fair, with the outcome generally
reflecting popular sentiment despite irregularities in some
cases. Recently support for both parties has declined,
however. In 2004 there were fewer FRELIMO votes in both
the presidential and legislative races than in 1999. A
common complaint is that the party has lost some of its
connection with the people, many of whom feel disillusioned
that earning a living still remains very difficult despite
FRELIMO’s thirty years in power. Unbalanced economic
development in favor of major cities, Maputo especially,
against rural areas has also dimmed FRELIMO’s appeal. In
RENAMO’s case, in 2003 party president Dhlakama drove out
several of his most accomplished deputies who had
questioned his authority and thereafter ran the party as an
autocrat. He did very little campaigning, only during the
last few months before the election, even though his rival,
Guebuza, had made himself very visible throughout the
country since 2002. In the end RENAMO won only half as
many votes as it did in 1999. One index of politics’ poor
health in Mozambique is that voter turnout in the 2003
municipal elections was roughly 30 percent and only 43
percent in the 2004 general elections (down from 75 percent
in 1999).
——————————————— ———-
Chissano, the International Figure and Friend of Mugabe
——————————————— ———-
¶12. (SBU) In July 2003, President Chissano assumed the
leadership of the African Union (AU). In his capacity as
AU President, Chissano sought to build stronger African
institutions and to find African-led solutions to problems
facing the continent. During his tenure the AU launched
its Peace and Security Council and sent peacekeepers to
Darfur. Beyond using his role as head of the AU to promote
peace on the continent, his personal relationships with
many African leaders have allowed him to play an important
behind-the-scenes role in mediating conflicts, particularly
in the ongoing difficulties in Zimbabwe.
¶13. (SBU) Mozambique has a common history and close ties
with its neighbor Zimbabwe. The Mozambican government
sheltered Robert Mugabe and his ZANU guerrilla forces
during Mugabe’s struggle against the Ian Smith regime in
then-Rhodesia in the late 1970’s. In response, Rhodesia
(and later the apartheid South African government)
retaliated by organizing the Mozambican rebel group,
RENAMO, to attack ZANU and Mozambican government forces —
a localized border-area conflict that ultimately turned
into Mozambique’s disastrous civil war. Chissano is a
long-time friend of Mugabe, referring to him often as
“brother” and “coach.” In December 2004, while in Zimbabwe
making a farewell address to Zimbabwe’s ruling party,
Chissano lauded Mugabe and declared that his own retirement
did not necessarily mean other leaders should follow his
example. However in a meeting with the Ambassador in
November 2004 (reftel), Chissano indicated that Mugabe was
very focused on the succession issue and told us that
Mugabe might be willing to step aside before elections in
2008 if, by doing so, he would not be seen as giving in to
outside pressure, if a strong successor were identified,
and if the opposition no longer threatened to split apart
Zimbabwe.
——————————
Comment: Chissano Next Steps
——————————
¶14. (U) Chissano has now packed up and left the Ponta
Vermelha palace, and Mozambique now has its third president
since independence. The fact that country has risen from
the ashes of civil war to become a unified nation with a
rapidly growing economy and a relatively open political
system has won Chissano regional and international
recognition. Chissano role in bringing peace to
Mozambique, combined with his considerable experience on
the African political scene, suggest to many that he will
now go on to play the role of an African senior statesman,
mostly likely through the newly created Joaquim Chissano
Foundation.
LA LIME
(77 VIEWS)
