Former South African government strategist Joel Netshitenzhe said that the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front had to settle the succession issue before there was real progress in Zimbabwe because every disagreement had much to do with the tension over succession.
He said the solution to the Zimbabwe problems ultimately depended on the country’s leaders.
Fortunately there was a growing sense within the moderate camps in both ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change that a solution must be found.
Netshitenzhe saw the Global Political Agreement as the only way forward but ZANU-PF had to settle the issue of successions because “every disagreement in Zimbabwe right now has as much to do with tension over succession as it does with tension between Mugabe and Tsvangirai”.
“What must happen is ZANU-PF needs to be convinced that its success is tied to the GPA succeeding,” he said. “Without showing progress, ZANU-PF will be in trouble at the polls.”
Full cable:
Viewing cable 10PRETORIA305, SOUTH AFRICA: AMBASSADOR GIPS MEETS WITH JOEL
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Reference ID |
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VZCZCXRO2568
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #0305/01 0431432
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121432Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1227
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 7574
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 1639
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 9928
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000305
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA: AMBASSADOR GIPS MEETS WITH JOEL
NETSHITENZHE, TOP MBEKI ERA STRATEGIST
PRETORIA 00000305 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (C) Ambassador Gips met with former Chief of the
Presidency’s Policy Unit Joel Netshitenzhe on February 1.
Netshitenzhe, one of the key government strategists to emerge
during the past 15 years, remains engaged intellectually on
all of the current issues confronting South Africa. (Note:
His goal now that he is no longer in government is to
establish a research institute, ideally at the University of
Pretoria. End Note.) He still has thoughtful opinions on
the state of South African governance, the importance of
education in meeting the country’s needs, the problems in
neighboring Zimbabwe, and the future of South Africa’s
bilateral relationship with the United States. Although his
influence in the African National Congress (ANC) has declined
following his resignation from government, we believe his
insights into party policy remain of considerable value. End
Summary.
——————————————— ———–
Zuma’s Administration a “Hybrid of Previous Governments”
——————————————— ———–
¶2. (C) Ambassador Gips, Deputy Chief of Mission La Lime,
Polcouns, and Poloff (notetaker) met with Joel Netshitenzhe
on February 1. Netshitenzhe, whom many consider to have been
former President Thabo Mbeki’s top policy adviser, began by
describing his views of South African government during the
past 15 years. If former President Nelson Mandela’s
administration was about uniting the country, then Mbeki’s
presidency was about “work” and “dealing with issues,”
according to Netshitenzhe. He said, “(President Jacob)
Zuma’s presidency is about both elements of unity and work.”
(Note: Netshitenzhe’s views on the character of the
administrations are telling because he was a senior official
in all of them. End Note.) Netshitenzhe pointed to the
National Planning Commission as a new way of making sure
government works. He said, “The commission means the South
African Government will have a long term vision for this
first time.” Netshitenzhe hopes that the long term vision
will unite the country and create space for public-private
partnerships. He judged that Minister in the Presidency for
National Planning Trevor Manuel’s role in government will not
be easy as it “will take a long time before there is an
agreed upon national vision.” However, he said it is
important the government identifies objectives that can be
met, finds ways of meeting those objectives, and creates new
objectives for the future.
¶3. (C) Netshitenzhe said the best way of ensuring the
government makes progress is for Minister in the Presidency
for Monitoring and Evaluation Collins Chabane to be empowered
to push the Cabinet for concrete results. He said,
“Chabane’s office should be capable of monitoring government
performance with evidence.” Netshitenzhe admitted, “South
Africa is at a critical juncture with regards to planning and
policymaking.” Ambassador Gips agreed with Netshitenzhe
about the importance of planning, and mentioned he had met
with Chabane recently for a conversation about how the USG
could help the Minister. Netshitenzhe said, “That is great
to hear. Such exchanges will be very useful.” He added that
Qthe South African Government had recently met with planning
commissions in Malaysia, South Korea, Chile, Tunisia, Brazil,
and India. He said, “Malaysia and South Korea had the most
to offer in terms of strategies for planning.” He noted that
Chile and Tunisia’s planning strategies were good models for
reducing poverty. He also confided that South Africa found
India’s planning strategy as “too rigid” and Brazil’s as
“having too many divisions.”
——————————————— —————-
“Education” Key to Meeting South Africa’s Greatest Challenges
——————————————— —————-
¶4. (C) Ambassador Gips asked Netshitenzhe what he would do
if he was still in government to confront challenges such as
poverty, inequality, skill shortages, and poor service
delivery. Netshitenzhe said everything in South Africa comes
back to “education, education, education” for the future.
His experience in government taught him that even though high
PRETORIA 00000305 002.2 OF 003
economic growth can lead to the alleviation of some poverty
and some minimum reductions in inequality, “growth on its own
is inadequate.” He added, “For instance, the biggest paradox
was that even as inequality shrank between racial categories,
it grew rapidly within racial categories.” Netshitenzhe said
because growth was not enough, the government under Mbeki
pushed for — and supported — growth for microeconomic
enterprises and skills development. He lauded the launch of
Mbeki’s Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative in South
Africa as an example of how the administration pushed for
skills. He said he is worried that South Africa is not
confronting inequality fast enough. He noted, “Poverty does
not lead to crime, but inequality definitely leads to crime.
We have to address this.”
———————————
Zimbabwe “Depends on Its Leaders”
———————————
¶5. (C) Netshitenzhe said Zimbabwe remains a complex issue.
He said, “Ultimately, everything depends on Zimbabwe’s
leaders.” Netshitenzhe said there is a growing sense within
moderate camps of Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Morgan Tsvangirai’s
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) that a solution must
be found. Netshitenzhe said South Africa and all sides in
Zimbabwe are asking whether there has been sufficient work on
the Global Political Agreement (GPA), which he sees as “the
only way forward.” In his view, ZANU-PF must settle
succession before there is real progress because “every
disagreement in Zimbabwe right now has as much to do with
tension over succession as it does with tension between
Mugabe and Tsvangirai.” He said, “What must happen is
ZANU-PF needs to be convinced that its success is tied to the
GPA succeeding.” However, he sees this as a challenge and
claimed the “GPA would be in ZANU-PF’s self-interest if it
cared.” Netshitenzhe continued, “ZANU-PF would be wise to
put succession to the side so it can promote a message of
delivery on the GPA to the public ahead of the next
elections.” He added, “Without showing progress, ZANU-PF
will be in trouble at the polls.”
——————————————— ———-
Netshitenzhe Offers Views on the Bilateral Relationship
——————————————— ———-
¶6. (C) Netshitenzhe said the character of administrations in
the United States provides complexity to the bilateral
relationship. He said, “There was an ideal relationship
between President Mandela and President Clinton and Deputy
President Mbeki and Vice President Gore.” However, he
stressed that some of the bilateral mechanisms in place
during the 1990s did not always lead to follow-ups, which was
a “failing for both sides.” During the Bush administration,
Netshitenzhe said South Africa disagreed with such U. S.
policies as the invasion of Iraq and sanctions on Zimbabwe.
However, he lauded what the previous administration did to
combat HIV/AIDS. He pointed to great potential for the
relationship now that both countries have new leaders. He
stressed how the leadership of both Zuma and President Obama
could lead to a partnership between the countries to fight
poverty, tackle the global economic crisis, and cooperate on
climate change. He said, “The Binational Commission is
Qclimate change. He said, “The Binational Commission is
wonderful, but probably not as strong as the relationship
between (Secretary) Clinton and (Minister of International
Relations and Cooperation) Nkoana-Mashabane.” Ambassador
Gips asked for Netshitenzhe’s views on the way forward for
AFRICOM. Netshitenzhe said, “Making sure U. S. military
interests match South African interests should be the top
priority.” He added, “You can keep people happy by making
sure they do not see the U. S. as colonizers.”
¶7. (C) Ambassador Gips asked Netshitenzhe what he thought
would be the best way of dealing with the ANC moving forward.
Netshitenzhe said, “It is not easy for me to say.” (Note:
Netshitenzhe’s answer probably demonstrates how marginalized
he has become now that Mbeki is no longer leading the party.
He retains, however, his place on the ANC National Executive
Committee. End Note.) He related that the Chinese are easy
for the ANC to deal with because everything is at the
party-to-party level. He noted, “The Chinese support the
party more than anything else. Maybe it would be good for
the ANC to have party-to-party ties with U. S. political
parties.”
PRETORIA 00000305 003.2 OF 003
——-
Comment
——-
¶8. (C) Netshitenzhe remains engaged intellectually on all of
the current issues confronting South Africa, and his opinions
matter to many within the senior leadership of the ANC, who
respect his role in government over the past 16 years. Many
observers believe his star went into decline when he was
mentioned as a potential candidate for the ANC presidency in
¶2007. He, nonetheless, still has valuable insights into what
current Ministers such as Trevor Manuel, Collins Chabane, and
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane are doing and thinking, and into the
debates within the party on future policy. End Comment.
GIPS
(79 VIEWS)
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