Zimbabwe was a nightmare of a failed state but its infrastructure was still intact and it would recover quickly if the leadership shifted, the European Union Political Directors’ Troika said just a month before the formation of the inclusive government.
United States Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried who attended the troika’s meeting said if the Movement for Democratic Change agreed to a power-sharing agreement with President Robert Mugabe, the US would support the deal.
European Union leaders, however, felt that Mugabe was going to prevail for the foreseeable future because African leaders did not want outsiders to assist, but at the same time they did not want to apply pressure for Mugabe to step down.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09PRAGUE27, A/S FRIED AND EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS’ TROIKA
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Reference ID |
Created |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO6790
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHPG #0027/01 0141612
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141612Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0996
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0004
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0043
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0128
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 0008
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0012
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0003
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0039
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0005
RUEHPS/AMEMBASSY PRISTINA 0049
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0047
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0715
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 0311
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0017
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000027
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
EUR/ERA WLUCAS, EUR/CE FOR ATRATENSEK
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2014
TAGS: EUN EZ EG PGOV PREL ZI SO SU CD
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED AND EU POLITICAL DIRECTORS’ TROIKA
DISCUSS MIDEAST, BALKANS, AFRICA AND GUANTANAMO DETAINEES
REF: A. PRAGUE 24
¶B. STATE 1985
¶C. 08 BRUSSELS 1774
PRAGUE 00000027 001.2 OF 004
Classified By: Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 9 Assistant Secretary Daniel
Fried met in troika format (Czech EU Presidency and following
Swedish Presidency, European Commission, and European Council
Secretariat) at the Political Director level. The discussion
primarily focused on the Middle East and the Western Balkans,
although EU troika comments on Africa (DRC, Sudan/Chad,
Somalia) and Guantanamo Detainees were also of note. The
informal luncheon discussion with the EU 27 on Russia and
Afghanistan is being reported septel. End Summary.
———-
Israeli-Palestinian Peace – Agree on Need for Durable
Ceasefire
———-
¶2. (SBU) Czech Political Director Martin Povejsil kicked off
the troika discussion highlighting EU concern for the
deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and civilian
casualties, while noting the need to come quickly to a
durable ceasefire. Povejsil commented on the particular need
to improve the border security, especially to address
smuggling. He noted that the EU has offered to redeploy a
monitoring mission to Rafah, but that this offer has not been
accepted so far. He also noted that the Egyptians appear
particularly reluctant to have a foreign monitoring force on
its border, and that it was important to strike the right
balance between Egyptian tolerance and Israeli confidence.
European Council Secretariat Representative Robert Cooper
noted that as Palestinian civilian casualties mount, Hamas
continues to gain ground against Israel in its “propaganda
war.” A/S Fried responded to these comments by noting the
intensive and personal engagement of Secretary Rice to help
address the current situation and achieve a durable ceasefire
that ends the rocketing, and not simply the appearance of a
ceasefire. He then went on to emphasize the need to address
the smuggling into Gaza and the significant role of Egypt in
ongoing negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
———-
Lebanon and Syria
———-
¶3. (SBU) On Lebanon, Povejsil commented that the EU would
hate to see this dispute between Gaza and Israel expand to
Lebanon again, given the “polarizing effect” this could have
on the broader region. A/S Fried noted that it is
particularly interesting that Hizbollah quickly denied
responsibility for the rocket attacks on Northern Israel on
January 7 and that Lebanese public opinion does not appear to
be inflamed at the moment. With respect to Syria, Povejsil
commented that it could exert decisive influence over Hamas,
and hopes Syria will encourage Hamas to refrain from
shelling. Syria is increasingly on the EU agenda and while
there has been movement toward signing the frozen EU
Association Agreement with Syria, the Czech EU presidency
intends to proceed “cautiously.” Povejsil stated that the EU
does not plan to “grant something for nothing” and they are
specifically looking for Syria to assume a constructive role
in regional affairs. A/S Fried reiterated USG concern that
while Syria has made pledges, it has done very little of
significance. Fried urged the EU to await concrete action
before moving forward on the Association Agreement.
———-
Iran – EU Urges USG to Pay Attention to How We Deliver Our
Message
———-
¶4. (C) A/S Fried noted our appreciation that in November the
EU adopted regulations implementing the Common Position on
PRAGUE 00000027 002.2 OF 004
UNSCR 1803, while also noting that time has not been working
in the international community’s favor. He urged the EU to
think about what bigger “carrots and sticks” we may be able
to offer as well as what would be required of the
international community if Iran obtains nuclear weapons.
Czech PolDir Povejsil noted that Iran has been in a
“non-responsive mode,” which he anticipates will last at
least until the new USG administration takes office. Robert
Cooper noted that, “How the next administration delivers its
message will be very important.” He also stated,
“Freelancing (by unofficial self-appointed intermediaries) is
problematic,” and warned that unless the USG is clear about
its message, there could be confusion in Tehran caused by
third parties purporting to carry the official view. Swedish
Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall cited the importance of
working this issue multilaterally and urged that we look at a
new push within the UN to get Russia and China on board. A/S
Fried responded that utilizing the UN is useful when there
are new combined policies to advance, but he did not agree
that those conditions currently existed. Cooper acknowledged
this sentiment and also noted that while Russia has engaged
Iran, “their interests in Iran vary.” According to Cooper,
as exports from Europe to Iran have steadily decreased, the
exports from China have steadily increased. Sanctions do not
go over well with European businesses, especially when China
is not on board.
———-
The Western Balkans – Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro
———-
¶5. (SBU) Both the EU and U.S. concurred that 2008 was a
critically important year for the Balkans, and while much
work remains, developments in the region exceeded
expectations. The EU gave much credit for this state of
affairs, particularly with respect to the recognition of
Kosovo’s independence, to the direct engagement of A/S Fried.
Povejsil noted that EULEX passed its first test (in north
Mitrovica), and more needs to be done to kick start economic
development, a point echoed by EU Commission Representative
Karel Kovanda. Kovanda also added that the Commission is
doing a study of the prospects for social and economic
development in Kosovo, which will be released in the fall.
A/S Fried made the point that the situation in Kosovo will
not get better on its own and thus we need to keep pressing
forward, particularly with respect to having EULEX take on
the tough tasks of borders, customs and police. He also
conveyed the point that ICR Feith and EULEX Head of Mission
De Kermabon need to work cooperatively. Robert Cooper noted
this point.
¶6. (C) Bosnia: The EU stated its general concern that Bosnia
is far from genuine integration. Povejsil also noted that EU
enlargement remains a sensitive issue within the EU and “no
real push is possible in this area until Lisbon Treaty
question marks are addressed.” The EU is working to advance
visa liberalization in order to increase contact and
orientation of the Balkans toward the EU. Povejsil also
noted that with the upcoming Peace Implementation Council
scheduled for early March, there should be a transfer of
increased responsibility and authority to the Bosnian
leadership. He added that Dayton was an excuse for the
leaders to do little or nothing. Fried noted that the USG
view is that the five-plus-two conditions need to be met,
without cutting corners, before the OHR is closed down.
Kovanda emphasized that we must keep pressing on
implementation of the Prud/Odzak agreement if we want the
post-OHR phase to get off on the right foot. Furthermore,
Kovanda said that while the Commission was looking for ways
to facilitate the movement of people, it discovered that
about a million Croatian passports had been distributed in
BiH. Cooper suggested that, if true, DG Enlargment take that
up with Zagreb. A/S Fried said it was indicative of Croatian
ambivalence with respect to Bosnia. Fried encouraged more
support for moderate Bosniaks and was bluntly critical of
PRAGUE 00000027 003.2 OF 004
Republica Srpska leader Dodik and Bosniak member of the
Presidency of BiH Silajdzic. Fried indicated that in his
last meeting with Silajdzic, which he characterized as
“alarming,” Silajdzic expressed his opinion that he wanted
things to get worse in the Balkans so that the entire system
would have to be remade.
¶7. (SBU) Serbia: A/S Fried commented that while we all want
Serbia to recognize its future is in Europe, Serbia also
needs to understand that EU tolerance is not unlimited.
According to Fried, Serbian President Tadic needs to know he
cannot reopen the question of Kosovo status; hopefully the
International Court of Justice decision will come out right
on this question.
¶8. (SBU) Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania: Both sides agreed
that Macedonia and Greece have complicated matters by making
the name issue political. Highlighting the EU accession
fatigue setting in, Swedish PolDir Lyrvall noted that there
is now the EU application from Montenegro, which the French
accepted last month. He also noted that Albania and Serbia
are likely to be next in the queue. Injecting a word of
caution, Fried commented that “benign Albanian nationalism”
cannot be taken for granted, given the upsurge in tension in
Albanian politics. Fried closed out the discussion on the
Balkans by noting that “enlargement” is perhaps one of the
best ways to manage Serbian behavior for the better.
———-
Africa – DRC, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, and Zimbabwe
———-
¶9. (SBU) Democratic Republic of Congo: Czech PolDir Povejsil
made clear that at the EU Foreign Ministerial level consensus
does not exist to send an EU force to the Congo. He noted
that EU battlegroups had been discounted and the required
troops “just don’t exist.” According to Povejsil, the way
ahead will be for EU member states, that choose to do so, to
increase their involvement via support to MONUC, with maybe a
“light complement” of EU forces on the ground. Council
Secretariat Representative Cooper added that while the UN SYG
requested a bridging force from the EU, recent statements of
UN Special Envoy Obasanjo did not indicate such a need.
Cooper noted that there was a lot of concern about the
functioning of MONUC, as well. Commission Representative
Kovanda advocated supporting the ongoing talks between
President Kabila and rebel leader Nkunda, and he made
reference to the work of the EUSEC (EU advisory and
assistance mission for security reform) in the DRC.
¶10. (C) Somalia: Swedish PolDir Lyrvall welcomed the
establishment of the Combined Task Force 151 and sought
coordination, including intelligence sharing, with the EU’s
ESDP mission “Atalanta” to help address the issue of piracy.
A/S Fried said the Contact Group on Somali Piracy, meeting
the week of January 12 at the UN, would address coordination.
A/S Fried highlighted the international law issue of what to
do with captured pirates (who assumes responsibility for
them, where are they held, who prosecutes, evidentiary
requirements, etc.), while commenting that Legal Adviser
Bellinger is working on this. The EU noted that it has
already run into this difficulty with a German attempted
seizure of suspected pirates, and were consulting with Kenyan
authorities about jurisdictional matters generally. Robert
Cooper said an international framework was needed, and A/S
Fried agreed that ad hoc solutions were to be avoided.
¶11. (SBU) Sudan and Chad: A/S Fried highlighted some of the
potential flashpoints, such as the slow deployment of UNAMID,
as well as the need to set an election date. Povejsil
concurred that this situation has been frustrating, although
the EU has seen some slight indications of improvements, such
as the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Chad
and Sudan and a decrease in border attacks, which the EU
attributes to the increased patrols. Lyrvall also reminded
PRAGUE 00000027 004.2 OF 004
the group of the work remaining to advance the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA).
¶12. (SBU) Zimbabwe: The entire group acknowledged that
Zimbabwe is a nightmare of a failed state; fortunately,
infrastructure remains and it may be able to recover quickly,
if the leadership shifts. Fried acknowledged that if the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) does agree to a
power-sharing agreement with Mugabe, we will need to support
such a deal; although if this breaks down, the international
community will need to step in quickly to assist. Povejsil
noted that Mugabe’s government is doing “almost nothing” to
address the cholera problem, besides blaming the EU for being
the root of the problem. Depressingly, the EU anticipates
“it’s Mugabe for the foreseeable future,” as the African
leaders (SADC, AU, and South Africa) do not want outsiders to
assist, yet these leaders do not act to apply pressure for
Mugabe to step down.
———-
Detainees – EU Will Discuss, but…
———-
¶13. (C) A/S Fried noted Legal Adviser Bellinger has worked
hard to address this issue and he noted with appreciation
Portuguese FM Amado’s initiative for the EU to discuss how to
assist with the resettlement of Guantanamo detainees. Czech
PolDir Povejsil made clear that this topic will be introduced
at the FM level (at the January GAERC), as the EU wants to
have this discussion at a top level. Povejsil went on to
caution that accepting detainees for resettlement likely
would be politically difficult with EU member state domestic
audiences, as well as from the legislative/judicial
perspective. He also referenced the bilateral discussion on
January 8 between Fried and DFM Tomas Pojar, which was
reported reftel. (Note: Pojar made clear that the GOCR does
not plan to accept detainees, although the Czechs would be
willing to facilitate discussion of this topic within the EU.
End Note.)
¶14. (U) A/S Fried cleared this cable.
Graber
(39 VIEWS)
