COMMENT
——-
¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH LAST WEEK'S MASS ACTION WAS SUCCESSFUL IN
CLOSING DOWN MOST BUSINESS IN HARARE AND OTHER CITIES, IT WAS
SOMETHING OF A PR FAILURE. TSVANGIRAI APPARENTLY
OVERESTIMATED HIS SUPPORTERS' COURAGE IN THE FACE OF PROBABLE
VIOLENCE. HIS ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE MDC HAD CANCELED
DEMONSTRATIONS FOR FEAR OF INJURY TO THE PUBLIC SEEMED TO BE
SPINNING THE NEWS AS BEST HE COULD. CERTAINLY MUGABE IS
REACTING AS THOUGH HE IS FIRMLY IN CHARGE AND CAPABLE OF
DEALING WITH ANY PESKY OPPOSITION THAT MIGHT ARISE. IF HE
SINCERELY BELIEVES THIS, IT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SERIOUS
NEGOTIATIONS. NONETHELESS, THE TRAIPSING OF ZANU-PF AND
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO TSVANGIRAI SHOWS THAT THE REGIME
RECOGNIZES THAT IT HAS NO WAY OUT OF THE COUNTRY'S CRISIS.
IN THAT CONTEXT, HEIGHTENING PRESSURE ON TSVANGIRAI AND THE
MDC THROUGH NEW TREASON CHARGES AND DETENTION CAN BE ANOTHER
WAY TO WEAKEN THE OPPONENT PRIOR TO UNAVOIDABLE DIALOGUE.
END COMMENT
SULLIVAN
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