The United States and British governments were so convinced that Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai would win the 2002 presidential elections that they were working on ways to bail out the MDC government, a month before the elections.
United States ambassador to Zimbabwe Joseph Sullivan at a meeting on 6 February with a British delegation that included the ambassador to Zimbabwe Brian Donnelly said an MDC government would face a range of serious challenges and would require significant assistance from the international community, particularly in the short term.
Sullivan said the US government had done some thinking about how to respond quickly to a new MDC government’s most critical needs and asked whether the United Kingdom had engaged in a similar process.
Donnelly said the MDC had identified five priority areas for attention during the transition period: security, the economy, social rehabilitation, good governance, and land reform.
Donnelly said that Tsvangirai had told him that land reform was the least urgent of the five.
The elections were scheduled for 9 to 11 March.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE343, AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
071411Z Feb 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTO8694
PAGE 01 HARARE 00343 01 OF 02 071428Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 WHA-00
DS-00 EAP-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00
NSAE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/003W
——————637E05 071428Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0893
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000343
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION
PROSPECTS AND POST-ELECTION PLANNING WITH BRITISH OFFICIALS
REF: HARARE 315
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
¶1. C) THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER TO ZIMBABWE, BRIAN DONNELLY,
JOINED BY FCO DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA ANDREW POCOCK AND IAN
BAILEY FROM THE BRITISH CABINET OFFICE CALLED ON THE AMBASSADOR ON
FEBRUARY 6. THE AMBASSADOR WAS ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF.
ELECTION OBSERVATION
——————–
¶2. (C) DONNELLY REPORTED THAT THE EU HAD BEEN GIVEN AN UNSIGNED
LETTER BY FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE ON FEBRUARY 5 INVITING THE EU
AND ACP TO SEND AN OBSERVER DELEGATION. HE SAID THE WORDING OF THE
INVITATION WAS STRANGE, SAYING “THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE WOULD
BE HONORED IF THE EU-ACP DELEGATION INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING NINE
COUNTRIES…” THE SIX EU MEMBERS NOT LISTED, DONNELLY SAID, WERE
THE UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, DENMARK, SWEDEN, FINLAND, AND THE
NETHERLANDS. THE EU, POCOCK NOTED, NOW NEEDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER
THE LATTER SIX COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN DEFINITIVELY RULED OUT OR
WHETHER THE GOZ HAS SIMPLY EXPRESSED A PREFERENCE THAT THEY NOT
PARTICIPATE. POCOCK SAID HE ASSUMED THAT IMPOSITION OF TARGETED
SANCTIONS BY THE EU WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE AN EU OBSERVER MISSION,
SO IT MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE TO HOLD BACK ON A SANCTIONS DECISION AT
LEAST UNTIL THE FULL DELEGATION WAS IN PLACE. DONNELLY ADDED THAT
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAD TOLD THEM THAT MORNING THAT
GETTING OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE,
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00343 01 OF 02 071428Z
AND HAD URGED THE EU TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SANCTIONS PENDING
AND HANGING OVER THE GOZ FOR NOW. POCOCK SAID THE GERMANS AND THE
DANES ARE THE EU’S HARDLINERS ON ZIMBABWE AND ARE PUSHING FOR AN
IMMEDIATE IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS. (LATE ON FEBRUARY 6, DONNELLY
TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE EU RECEIVED THE FINAL, SIGNED VERSION
OF THE MUDENGE LETTER WHICH ADDS EXTRA SALT TO THE MIX BY INSISTING
THAT THE ACP HEAD THE EU DELEGATION. BRITISH HC TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT THIS ADDED INSULT COULD SWING THE EU MINISTERIAL
MEETING OF FEB 8 AGAINST ACCEPTING SUCH AN OBSERVATION INVITATION
AND IN FAVOR OF SANCTIONS, SINCE GERMANY AND OTHERS WERE ALREADY
ARGUING IN FAVOR OF SANCTIONS.) THE AMBASSADOR REPORTED THAT MDC MP
DAVID COLTART HAD IMPRESSED UPON HIM THE DAY BEFORE THE IMPORTANCE
OF ENSURING THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS BE PRESENT AT ALL 120
COUNTING CENTERS, AND THAT THEY BE DEPLOYED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
TO TROUBLE SPOTS OF MOUNT DARWIN, BEITBRIDGE, AND GOKWE.
¶3. (C) AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN NOTED THAT A TEAM OF FOUR PEOPLE FROM
THE COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT HAD ARRIVED IN HARARE THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS THE ADVANCE PARTY OF THE COMMONWEALTH OBSERVER MISSION. WE HAD
BEEN TOLD BY JOHN SHEPPARD, THE LEADER OF THE ADVANCE GROUP, THAT
SIX OBSERVERS WOULD ARRIVE BY FEBRUARY 11 AND THAT THE ENTIRE
DELEGATION OF 30 OBSERVERS AND 15 SUPPORT STAFF WOULD BE IN PLACE
BY FEBRUARY 23. THE AMBASSADOR QUESTIONED WHETHER SUCH A
DELEGATION MIGHT BE TOO SMALL TO DO A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT AND
ASKED WHETHER THE UK MIGHT ASSIST IN PROVIDING FUNDS TO BEEF UP THE
SIZE. POCOCK WAS NOT SURE, BUT REPORTED THAT THE COMMONWEALTH
SECRETARY-GENERAL HAD CIRCULATED A LETTER TO MEMBERS REQUESTING
SIPDIS
TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS OF 400,000 POUNDS TO FINANCE THE COSTS OF THE
OBSERVER DELEGATION. WHILE SOME EARLY COMMONWEALTH OBSERVERS ARE
ON THE GROUND, WE HEARD FROM THE NIGERIAN HC THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS
CONTINUE PLAYING FOR TIME, INSISTING THAT THE NIGERIAN MEMBER OF
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00343 01 OF 02 071428Z
THE OBSERVATION MISSION MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE LETTER OF INVITATION
IS RECEIVED IN COMMONWEALTH HEADQUARTERS, A DELIVERY WHICH IS
REGULARLY DELAYED,
MDC’S PROSPECTS
—————
¶4. (C) POCOCK SAID TSVANGIRAI SEEMED GENUINELY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
HIS CHANCES OF UNSEATING PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE REPORTEDLY BELIEVES
THE MDC HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT IN THE ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS
OF MASHONALAND — PARTLY A PRODUCT OF INTENSIVE LOBBYING OF THE
TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN THAT REGION. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE THOUGHT THE
MDC COULD WIN AS MANY AS HALF THE VOTES IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL
PROVINCE AND IN THE LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE IN MASHONALAND EAST.
(NOTE: THOSE FIGURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTIONS OF
TSVANGIRAI’S SPECIAL ADVISOR — SEE REFTEL. END NOTE.) CEPHAS
SIPDIS
MSIPA, GOVERNOR OF MIDLANDS PROVINCE, PREDICTED TO OUR
INTERLOCUTORS THAT THE MDC WOULD LIKELY WIN MIDLANDS. (COMMENT:
MSIPA’S PREDICTION IS REMARKABLE FOR TWO REASONS: THE GOVERNOR IS
A SENIOR OFFICAL IN ZANU-PF, AND THE RULING PARTY WON 62 PERCENT OF
THE VOTE IN MIDLANDS IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. AN
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6998
PAGE 01 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00
WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 NSAE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /003W
——————637E15 071428Z /38
P 071411Z FEB 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0894
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000343
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR NEARY
LONDON FOR GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z
PROSPECTS AND POST-ELECTION PLANNING WITH BRITISH OFFICIALS
MDC VICTORY IN THE PROVINCE LESS THAN TWO YEARS LATER WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT TURNAROUND. END COMMENT.)
¶5. (C) IN A SEPARATE MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR ON FEBRUARY 5,
COLTART, WHO HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN A PESSIMIST IN THE PAST, WAS QUITE
BUOYANT. HE NOTED THAT THE MDC NOW HAD THE LIST OF 6 MILLION
REGISTERED VOTERS, AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 700,000 FROM TWO YEARS
AGO, THEREBY OBVIATING EARLIER FEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF
VOTERS HAD BEEN DISENFRANCHISED AND INDICATING A HIGH INTENTION TO
VOTE. COLTART STATED THAT THE SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE
DISENFRANCHISED FOR DUAL CITIZENSHIP WAS COMPARATIVELY
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MDC WAS UNDERTAKING TO DELIVER ITS CAMPAIGN
MATERIAL TO EACH OF THE SIX MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS.
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE TO AN MDC GOVERNMENT
———————————————
¶6. WITH HIS BRITISH INTERLOCUTORS, THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT AN
MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD FACE A RANGE OF SERIOUS CHALLENGES AND WOULD
REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. HE NOTED THAT THE USG HAS DONE
SOME THINKING ABOUT HOW WE CAN RESPOND QUICKLY TO A NEW MDC
GOVERNMENT’S MOST CRITICAL NEEDS AND ASKED WHETHER THE UK HAS
ENGAGED IN A SIMILAR PROCESS. DONNELLY NOTED THAT THE MDC HAS
IDENTIFIED FIVE PRIORITY AREAS FOR ATTENTION DURING THE TRANSITION
PERIOD: SECURITY; THE ECONOMY; SOCIAL REHABILITATION (INCLUDING
HIV/AIDS); GOOD GOVERNANCE (INCLUDING JUDICIAL REFORM, WALKING BACK
ZANU-PF’S MORE REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION, AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM);
AND LAND REFORM (ALTHOUGH THIS LATTER POINT, TSVANGIRAI TOLD
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z
DONNELLY, IS THE LEAST URGENT OF THE FIVE). POCOCK SAID THE UK IS
LOOKING AT HOW IT COULD QUICKLY BOOST DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE “BACK
TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE.” IN ADDITION, THE UK IS PRESSING THE IFI’S
TO BE PREPARED TO RESPOND AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AND THE EU TO BE
RESPONSIVE “UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT.” (NOTE: PRESUMABLY THE
LATTER POINT REFERS TO A RESTORATION OF SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE
LEVELS AND TRADE PRIVILEGES. END NOTE.)
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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