The really critical number will be turnout. Some 80% of the respondents told Afrobarometer that they will vote. That would be the highest level since the liberation election of 1980.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission registered 5.7 million voters (it was 5.65 mn. in 2005) out of over 8 mn. eligible Zimbabweans. Of those, 60% are reckoned to be under 40, and have known no other government than ZANU-PF.
The opposition’s attempt to make the election a referendum on ZANU-PF rule, particularly its management of the economy, has paid off.
Yet even in the towns, there is some scepticism that those young voters saying they want change will turn out en masse for the opposition. Younger voters, however, seem less cowed by pressure to vote for the ruling party.
There are increasing reports of intimidation, mainly in the countryside, of ZANU activists or security agents threatening violence if communities fail to vote for ZANU-PF. But the power of those threats may be diminishing.
Again, Afrobarometer’s latest survey suggests that fear of electoral violence has fallen from 51% to 43%. People are less worried about what they say now. Opposition candidates, some previously afraid to campaign in rural areas, say they are campaigning with increasing confidence.
A risk of violence remains. This month, it emerged that three bases have been established in Hurungwe, one of which is in the Magunje Show Grounds, which was a torture base during the 2008 runoff campaign.
These bases are not being used for violence currently but are run by war veterans calling people to meetings, threatening heavy retribution should ZANU-PF lose.
Another important Afrobarometer finding is that trust in the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has fallen: 34% of people now believe that ZEC is biased, compared to 30% in May. This follows civic activists and opposition politicians accusing the ZEC of blatant irregularities and illegalities, and more diplomatic questions from some of the observer groups.
The MDC and Chamisa have stepped up the pressure on the ZEC and its chairwoman Priscilla Chigumba, focusing on the release of the full version, with photographs, of the biometric electoral register for cross-checking, and the security of the ballots.
To most of these, Chigumba gives a legalistic response, sometimes a casual put-down. But she has done little to boost public perceptions of the commission’s neutrality. On 24 July, the police rejected an application for the MDC to organise a demonstration against the ZEC in central Harare, arguing it would interfere with election preparations.
The MDC continues to organise vigils outside local ZEC offices, both as a means to pressure its officials and as a way of mobilising voter interest. To get the turnout it needs, the MDC has to convince its supporters that the process will be fair enough to allow them victory.
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