Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai set 16 conditions to participate in the presidential election run-off with five of them labelled as dealbreakers.
According to a cable by Wikileaks, Tsvangirai told a press conference in Pretoria on 10 May that he would participate in the elections but they had to be held no later than 24 May. The run-off was finally held on 27 June.
Tsvangirai had won the first round in the 29 March elections but had not won an outright majority in the disputed elections whose election results were announced more than a month after the elections.
MDC treasurer Roy Bennett was reported to be very optimistic about the run-off saying the elections would be run “in honour of the Zimbabwean people who are being tortured and killed.”
MDC Advisor Kathi Walther highlighted five of the conditions which she said where the “dealbreakers” to United States embassy officials:
- International peacekeepers and international election monitors must be allowed in and given unfettered access to the entire country;
- Domestic and international media must be permitted to cover the election without hindrance or interference;
- All political violence must end immediately;
- ZEC must be “reconstituted;”
- The electoral process must be “demilitarized.”
Embassy officials said the last condition was not included in any press coverage.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08PRETORIA1006, MDC ANNOUNCES THEY WILL PARTICIPATE IN RUN-OFF
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO2005
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #1006/01 1331531
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 121531Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4441
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 3660
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5597
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9814
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001006
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2017
SUBJECT: MDC ANNOUNCES THEY WILL PARTICIPATE IN RUN-OFF
REF: PRETORIA 997
PRETORIA 00001006 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Charge d’Affaires Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On 10 May, MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai
announced that the MDC would participate in a run-off and
that it must be held no later than 24 May. However, MDC
participation is on the condition that SADC peacekeepers be
allowed in to monitor the run-off, international election
observers are allowed full access to the electoral process,
that all political violence end; that ZEC be “reconstituted,”
that the electoral process be demilitarized, and that
domestic and international media be permitted to cover the
election without hindrance or interference. Tsvangirai said
that he would return to Zimbabwe by today, 12 May, but Post
has since learned he may go back later in the week, with his
return dependent on security concerns. MDC’s announcement
took place against additional negative media coverage of
Mbeki’s mediation attempts, with Mbeki appearing hand-in-hand
with Mugabe in Harare only the day before. The MDC’s
announcement and their refusal to speak to Mbeki, coupled
with Mbeki’s less than neutral comments last week, have
provoked public speculation about whether Mbeki can
effectively mediate. END SUMMARY.
————————-
MDC TO CONTEST IN RUN-OFF
————————-
¶2. (C) MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai on 10 May announced
during a press conference in Pretoria that the MDC will
participate in a run-off presidential election, but that the
run-off must be held no later than 24 May (which would fall
within 21 days of ZEC’s 02 May official announcement of the
29 March election). (NOTE: Only five days earlier on 05 May,
the MDC had announced it would publicize its decision whether
or not to participate in a run-off after the ZEC officially
set a run-off date. END NOTE) An upbeat MDC Treasurer Roy
Bennett told PolOff on 10 May that the run-off would be held
“in honor of the Zimbabwean people who are being tortured and
killed,” adding that “we just need to get this over with.”
¶3. (C) The MDC indicated their participation was contingent
on a list of 16 conditions being met. MDC Advisor Kathi
Walther (protect) subsequently highlighted five of these to
PolOff as being “dealbreakers:”
— International peacekeepers and international election
monitors must be allowed in and given unfettered access to
the entire country;
— Domestic and international media must be permitted to
cover the election without hindrance or interference;
— All political violence must end immediately;
— ZEC must be “reconstituted;”
— The electoral process must be “demilitarized.”
(NOTE: This last condition was mentioned to PolOff on 10 May
by both Walther and Bennett, but was not included in any
press coverage. END NOTE)
————————————-
TSVANGIRAI’S RETURN DELAYED YET AGAIN
————————————-
¶4. (C) Despite Tsvangirai’s claim during the press conference
that he would go back to Zimbabwe within two days, his return
has again been delayed as he continues to travel around the
region. According to IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu,
Tsvangirai told him he would like to return to Harare on 14
May, but is still waiting for the “signal” that it is safe or
him to return. Tsvangirai also told Masamvu that his
meetings with Angolan President dos Santos on 11 May went
Qmeetings with Angolan President dos Santos on 11 May went
“surprisingly well.” Dos Santos gave Tsvangirai an hour of
his time (compared to only 20 minutes from Mozambican
President Guebuza on 09 May), promised in his capacity as
head of SADC’s security committee to send 500 peacekeepers to
monitor the election, and complained that Mugabe keeps
harping on the UK’s role in Zimbabwe’s past, as if only the
UK were the only colonizer on the continent. Masamvu also
PRETORIA 00001006 002.2 OF 002
said Tsvangirai will be going to Lesotho on 13 May for
meetings.
——————————–
PRESIDENT MBEKI TAKING A BEATING
——————————–
¶5. (SBU) The MDC’s press conference occurred against a
backdrop of very unfavorable coverage of President Mbeki’s
mediation efforts. On 09 May, President Mbeki flew to Harare
for closed-door sessions with President Mugabe. Again,
images of Mbeki smiling and walking hand-in-hand with Mugabe
dominated South African media. The MDC’s announcement also
coincided with a leadership summit of South Africa’s ruling
tri-partite alliance (ANC, Congress of South African Trade
Unions, and the South African Communist Party), where press
reports note that new ANC power brokers were all to eager to
point out Mbeki’s recent failures, including his mediation
attempts in the Zimbabwean crisis. Immediately before the
summit, the SACP central committee caucus called on Mbeki to
step down before next year’s election.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶6. (C) Though it is hard to gauge what is being done under
the auspices of Mbeki’s mediation attempts, many commentators
and analysts are beginning to question Mbeki’s ability to
deliver, with one editorial going so far as to label him
Mugabe’s “enabler.” PolOff was told by the Irish Ambassador
that Tsvangirai refused to speak to Mbeki again on Friday, 09
May, making it possible that Mbeki did not know about MDC’s
press conference or dealbreakers in advance. Previous public
statements indicate that Mbeki may not be sympathetic to the
MDC’s current demands. Mbeki said last week there is no need
for new outside observers, implying that anyone who thought
otherwise was racist (reftel). He also clarified a couple of
weeks ago that there was no “electoral crisis” in Zimbabwe,
suggesting he may not feel the ZEC needs to be
“reconstituted.” Last, the South African retired military
team currently investigating reports of violence was sent in
at the ANC’s insistence, not Mbeki’s (reftel). That said,
Post believes that the MDC’s demands will gain some traction.
Mugabe has repeatedly and effectively manipulated Mbeki for
years by making demands.
¶7. (C) There are many irons in the fire right now, with
high-level conversations taking place on a daily basis
throughout the region. In fact, the increasingly positive
and public role the ANC has played has changed the shape of
the debate in South Africa. However, it is not clear whether
it reflects a deep desire to support democracy in Zimbabwe,
or simply an opportunity to kick Mbeki while he is
politically vulnerable. We suspect it is a combination of
both. Unfortunately, these multiple efforts to find a
solution are not being channeled through or directed by any
one person, be it Mbeki or otherwise. Tsvangirai has refused
to speak to Mbeki, but is speaking ANC President Jacob Zuma.
Mbeki and his advisers are speaking to Mugabe, some ZANU-PF
members, and members of the Mutambara faction of the MDC,
which is not united with Tsvangirai’s faction. Moreover,
Tsvangirai also appears to be in regular contact with the
Presidents of Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia, and Angola, but
it is unclear if these SADC leaders are engaging Mbeki,
Mugabe, or even other SADC members.
TEITELBAUM
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