The Movement for Democratic Change announced on 2 April that its leader Morgan Tsvangirai had won the presidential elections with 50.3 percent of the vote.
It said President Robert Mugabe had received 43.8 percent of the vote.
The party also said it had won 114 seats in the House of Assembly.
Party secretary general Tendai Biti said in the absence of credible Zimbabwe Electoral Commission figures, the MDC served as the parallel market for results.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE266, SITUATION REPORT: A WIN OR A RUNOFF? MDC REVEALS
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VZCZCXRO1460
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0266/01 0931722
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021722Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2669
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1895
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1865
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1988
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0561
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1265
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1622
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2044
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4475
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1115
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC//DHO-7//
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC/ECMO/CC/DAO/DOB/DOI//
RUZEHAA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/ECJ5M//
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000266
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S DESK OFFICER S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E. LOKEN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
SUBJECT: SITUATION REPORT: A WIN OR A RUNOFF? MDC REVEALS
ITS RESULTS
REF: HARARE 254
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B & D)
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On April 2, the opposition MDC held a press
conference to announce its final internal vote tabulation
from the March 29 national elections. According to the MDC,
Morgan Tsvangirai, with 50.3 percent of the vote and a 2.4
percent margin of error, beat out President Mugabe, who
received 43.8 percent, results which closely matched figures
from a recent NGO projection. While still claiming
Tsvangirai’s victory as an outright win, the MDC allowed that
SIPDIS
they would participate in a runoff, though under protest.
The MDC also claimed a majority in the House of Assembly,
announcing that the opposition would control the new
parliament with 114 seats. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (U) At an April 2 press conference widely covered by the
international media, opposition MDC Secretary General Tendai
Biti, who opened by joking that in the absence of credible
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) figures, the MDC served
as the parallel market for results, announced the party’s
final internal tabulation of presidential and House of
Assembly contests. Careful not to violate the Electoral Act
by announcing results ahead of the ZEC, Biti reiterated that
the MDC’s totals were based entirely on data posted at
polling sites and closely matched a parallel vote tabulation
projection by the Zimbabwean Electoral Support Network
(ZESN), whose methodology Biti commended. According to Biti,
Morgan Tsvangirai won the presidential race with 50.3 percent
of the vote (placing him over the 50 percent plus one
threshold for a win without a runoff); while President Mugabe
received 43.8 percent and Simba Makoni just 7 percent. The
MDC reported that 2,382,243 Zimbabweans went to the polls and
that the results reflected the will of the people. Biti
noted that the MDC’s favorable election results did not
detract from the fact that the elections were neither “free,
fair, nor credible.”
¶3. (U) In the wake of reports in the government newspaper of
a runoff, Biti stated that while the MDC unequivocally
maintained that Tsvangirai had won the presidential race
outright, the party would contest under protest in a runoff
if deemed necessary by ZEC’s official results. (Note: Under
the current law the runoff must be held within 21 days of the
announcement of the official results.) Biti mocked the
current regime, noting that a runoff would likely increase
the MDC’s margin of victory and embarrass Mugabe. He again
emphasized the MDC’s concern that ZEC had yet to announce its
final tabulation a full three and a half days after the
election. Biti called on ZEC to provide the public with
access to the polling site result forms in order to allow for
verification of the count and chastened the commission for
the delay, calling it “a vacuum where mystery fills in and
leaves Harare filled with conspiracies and
counter-conspiracies.”
¶4. (U) Biti went on to announce tabulations from the
parliamentary House of Assembly races. According to Biti, the
MDC (Tsvangirai) won a plurality of 99 seats, ZANU-PF
received 96, the MDC (Mutambara) won 11 and independent (and
former ZANU-PF MP) Jonathan Moyo retained his seat. Biti
noted that the MDC also expected to win three additional
seats in by-elections in party strongholds where elections
did not take place due to the deaths of candidates. This
would bring the opposition total to 114 of 128 seats,
resulting in control of Parliament. Biti said MDC
tabulations were largely consistent with parliamentary
results released so far by the ZEC, although there were some
HARARE 00000266 002 OF 002
discrepancies.
¶5. (U) Responding to questions by reporters, Biti reiterated
the MDC stance that despite the statements of election
observers the election was not free, fair, or credible. This,
according to Biti, only proved that “even under the most
difficult of conditions, the people’s will prevails.” Biti
also noted that while the SADC negotiations had failed to
result in the establishment of conditions for free elections,
the process had resulted in critical amendments to existing
legislation, especially the new provision to the Electoral
Act that required the posting of results outside polling
stations. Without that change, he noted, &we would not be
here and ZANU would have stolen the election.8
¶6. (C) COMMENT: By announcing its internal results, referring
to the ZESN parallel vote tabulation (Reftel) and declaring
that Tsvangirai was the next president of Zimbabwe, the MDC
hoped to preempt the ruling party and the ZEC from announcing
fraudulent results favoring ZANU-PF. While the MDC clearly
believes Tsvangirai won the election outright, Biti’s remarks
indicate the MDC realizes the best possible scenario is a
runoff. If a runoff is held, expedient coordination of donor
resources and assistance to increase the likelihood of a
credible process will be crucial. END COMMENT.
MCGEE
(44 VIEWS)
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