The Movement for Democratic Change candidate for Gutu North in the 2004 by-election Casper Musoni told United States embassy officials that the violence in the constituency was not as bad as was being reported in the independent media.
He was reacting to reports by the Standard that “marauding ZANU-PF youths” and war veterans had “laid siege” in Gutu North effectively making it impossible for the MDC to campaign.
Musoni who was contesting former air force chief Josiah Tungamirai of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front denied that ZANU-PF had brought any noticeable number of extra people, war veterans, youth militia members, or illicit voters into the constituency.
He said ZANU-PF supporters had beaten three of his campaign staff who subsequently needed medical attention. He also confirmed that one businessman was beaten allegedly for opposition political affiliation.
Musoni said that notorious war veterans leader Joseph Chinotimba had recently visited his restaurant and torn down campaign posters inside and threatened staff. Other than these incidents, he said he knew of no other reports of violence or intimidation.
He said that in general he did not feel threatened, and he did not think the pre-election environment was particularly threatening.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 04HARARE122, LESS VIOLENCE – BUT ZANU-PF STILL AHEAD IN RUN-UP
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000122
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER
DS/OP/AF
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: LESS VIOLENCE – BUT ZANU-PF STILL AHEAD IN RUN-UP
TO IMPORTANT BY-ELECTION
REF: A. HARARE 54
¶B. 2003 HARARE 2359
¶C. 2003 HARARE 1931
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The MDC candidate in an upcoming
by-election reported that the pre-election environment was
less threatening than press reports describe. A Minister
reiterated ZANU-PF’s age-old theme that the West was
responsible for Zimbabwe’s problems at a rally for the ruling
party candidate. If the ZANU-PF candidate won, questions
remain as to whether he has the charisma to unify the party
in the province. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) On January 20, with colleagues from the British,
Swedish and Spanish Embassies, poloff visited Gutu-North,
attended a ZANU-PF rally, and met with candidates for a
February 7 – 8 by-election there. The parliamentary seat in
Gutu-North was left vacant with the September 2003 death of
Vice-President Simon Muzenda (Ref C).
Intimidation Less than Newspapers Report
—————————————-
¶3. (C) Although The Standard, an independent weekly,
reported that “marauding” ZANU-PF youths and war veterans had
“laid siege” to Gutu-North, effectively making it impossible
for the MDC to campaign, in a conversation with poloff the
MDC candidate Casper Musoni denied that ZANU-PF had brought
any noticeable number of extra people, war veterans, youth
militia members, or illicit voters into the constituency.
Musoni said that ruling party supporters had beaten three of
his campaign staff, who subsequently needed medical
attention, and he confirmed a Zimbabwe Independent report
that one other businessman was beaten during the past week,
allegedly for opposition political affiliation. Musoni also
confirmed press reports that on January 16 ruling party
supporters in three vehicles had attempted to detain him in
his vehicle. Musoni evaded the vehicles that he said tried
to block him from driving forward, returned to his
restaurant, and called police who escorted him home. Musoni
said that notorious war veteran Joseph Chinotimba had
recently visited Musoni’s restaurant and torn down campaign
posters inside and threatened staff. Other than these
incidents, he said he knew of no other reports of violence or
intimidation. Musoni said that in general he did not feel
threatened, and he did not think the pre-election environment
was particularly threatening.
MDC Candidate Not Optimistic
—————————-
¶4. (C) Musoni reported that he had been engaged in daily
door-to-door campaigning and had not attempted to hold any
large meetings yet. The Standard reported that Musoni had
not been able to hold a single rally in the constituency, but
Musoni said that he only submitted a list of prospective
rallies to police on January 19 and that they had not
responded yet. Musoni said his first rally would be on
January 22 or 23. Musoni said he had already received about
Z$4.5 million (US$1,125) from the MDC national office, and he
expected to receive another allotment of the same amount for
campaign expenses. He said he had 1350 volunteers working on
his campaign, and he was using the money to pay for bus fare
and food for the volunteers to visit far-flung areas and
encourage voters. Musoni said he hoped some in the MDC
leadership would visit soon to give speeches and help his
campaign. He complained that ZANU-PF had all of the
government structures in the area – manpower, vehicles, and
fuel – mobilized for the ruling party campaign, giving
Tungamirai an unfair advantage.
Horse Confirmed Dead at ZANU-PF Rally
————————————-
¶5. (C) At the invitation of ZANU-PF candidate Retired Air
Chief Marshal Josiah Tungamirai, poloff attended a ZANU-PF
rally in Nerupiri (just outside Gutu-North). Minister of
Youth, Gender and Employment Creation Elliott Manyika
delivered the main campaign message that sanctions from the
West were responsible for the economic difficulties the
country was experiencing, and that only ZANU-PF could defend
the country against imperialist forces bent on controlling
the land. At one point Manyika pointed to poloff and the
other diplomats in attendance and said in Shona, they are so
interested in the land that they have followed us all the way
here from Harare. Tungamirai passed out sample ballots and
led an extensive clinic on how to mark a ballot for a ZANU-PF
candidate that included a description of good X’s (big bold
ones) in the appropriate box, and bad X’s (small,
non-descript ones). The average age of the approximately 200
rural attendees appeared to be 65, and most sat on the ground
under trees in the area designated for the rally. There were
three uniformed police officers present, two of whom sat
through the entire 3-hour event, while the third stood out on
the road leading into the area.
When the Going Gets Rough – Change the Subject
——————————————— –
¶6. (C) After the rally, poloff and the other diplomats met
for an engaging round-table discussion with Tungamirai and
Manyika back at a hotel in Gutu-North. Tungamirai came off
as rather quiet, perhaps a little tired, and not as talkative
as the jovial Manyika. During a discussion about whether
food had ever been distributed at a political rally,
Tungamirai denied that it ever had, and said that that would
imply that without food there would be no reason to have
campaign rallies. When asked to describe his campaign
message, Tungamirai deferred to the Minister, who elaborated
on the sanctions and land issues at length. Whenever the
discussion ranged into territory that Manyika was
uncomfortable with such as freedom of speech, GOZ food
politicization, or GOZ economic policy, he would change the
subject to Iraq, crime in America, or alleged politicization
of donor food aid.
¶7. (C) Tungamirai had scheduled about 25 rallies in the
final three weeks of the campaign. For most he expected
ZANU-PF Ministers or deputy Ministers to visit and deliver
keynote addresses.
¶8. (C) Tungamirai contested the ZANU-PF nomination for the
seat in 2000 but lost to the late Vice President Simon
Muzenda, and Musoni ran (unsuccessfully) against Muzenda in
that year. Tungamirai recently resigned his non-constituency
MP seat to run for the Gutu-North slot. In 2000 Musoni
polled 8,179 votes to Muzenda’s 14,867. In the 2002
Presidential race MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai polled
8,934 to President Mugabe’s 22,524 votes.
¶9. (C) COMMENT: That the remaining independent newspapers
in Zimbabwe exaggerated the level of pre-election violence in
Gutu-North demonstrates the difficulty in getting a clear
picture of this highly polarized political environment.
¶10. (C) Given the previous parliamentary and presidential
election results from Gutu-North, we would expect ZANU-PF to
retain the seat. Albeit, there are factors which favor the
MDC: an environment of lower political tension than previous
by-elections, the MDC national office contribution of more
funds to the campaign than previously reported (Ref A), and
the economy’s continued slide. But factors favorable to
ZANU-PF – the MDC waited until two weeks before the vote to
hold its first rally, it is a rural constituency
(traditionally ZANU-PF strongholds), the ruling party has an
aggressive rally schedule and is demonstrating considerably
more organizational energy and capacity – suggest an MDC win
is unlikely.
¶11. (C) Quiet and politically inexperienced, Tungamirai did
not impress poloff with any outward charisma, and he did not
relate to the electorate assembled for the rally in as
personable a manner as Manyika. But the task of uniting the
divided Karanga factions in the Masvingo province (Ref B)
might call for more back-room negotiating skills – something
we will likely never observe directly – rather than political
glad-handing.
SULLIVAN
(60 VIEWS)
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