Transport Minister Nicholas Goche was part of a third “loose” faction within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front which included central bank governor Gideon Gono, according to Norwegian ambassador to Zimbabwe Gunnar Foreland.
Foreland said this faction was likely to have greater influence in the future.
There were already two factions within ZANU-PF, one loyal to former army commander Solomon Mujuru and the other to Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Foreland said President Robert Mugabe was skilfully playing each faction against the other.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE928, AMBASSADOR’S COURTESY CALL ON NORWEGIAN AMBASSADOR
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO5104
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0928/01 3360929
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 020929Z DEC 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5169
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000928
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR’S COURTESY CALL ON NORWEGIAN AMBASSADOR
TO ZIM
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Norwegian ambassador Gunnar Foreland, an
experienced Africa hand, provided Ambassador Ray his insights
on Zimbabwe. Foreland discussed the interplay of Shona and
Western culture and the role ethnicity plays in the
relationship between President Robert Mugabe and President
Jacob Zuma of South Africa, the relationship of Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono and Grace Mugabe to
President Robert Mugabe, and the importance of security
sector reform. Finally, Foreland concluded that ZANU-PF has
no clear succession plan as Mugabe continues to play off
factions against each other. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (SBU) On November 25, I had an interesting one-on-one
conversation with Gunnar Foreland, Ambassador of Norway to
Zimbabwe. A long time observer of the Africa scene with vast
experience on the continent, Foreland said we in the West
often fail to appreciate the way the indigenous culture
merges with Western culture to shape the behavior of people
here. He said, for instance, in Zimbabwe, the dominant Shona
culture often exists side by side with Western culture and
locals see no conflict. Many Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ)
agencies and officials switch between the two whenever it is
to their advantage. He thinks that Tsvangirai’s deference to
Mugabe, for instance, is rooted in Shona culture: respect for
elders and respect for a fellow Shona. The ethnic factor
also plays a role in the attitude of South African President
Zuma toward Mugabe. In addition to not being a
‘revolutionary comrade’ as Thabo Mbeki was, Zuma, being Zulu,
does not have the same sense of kinship with Mugabe, a Shona.
|QQl(LeQrKbOxQed to treat Mugabe as a head of
state at the recent SADC conference, dealing with him instead
as just the head of a party. This was so different from the
way Mbeki treated him that Mugabe was reportedly quite shaken
by the experience.
¶3. (C) In terms of who has President Mugabe’s ear and who
wields the most influence on him, Foreland said that many
don’t appreciate the role played by Grace Mugabe. She acts
as a kind of gatekeeper, often controlling who sees him, and
what information gets to him. In this, she is assisted by
Gono who acts as Mugabe’s bag man and who has played a
critical role in most of Grace’s ‘businesses.’ Foreland
believes that eventually Mugabe will move Gono from the RBZ
post, probably to the Office of the President, but this won’t
happen until after the ZANU-PF Congress in mid-December
because Mugabe doesn’t want to go into the Congress looking
weak or as if he has bowed to external pressure. He added as
a footnote that the rescheduling of the Congress was due, he
believes, primarily to lack of funding. Even though ZANU-PF
puts pressure on local business to provide in-kind support
for their meetings, they were unable to amass enough to hold
it on schedule. There is also the problem, he added, that
internally, ZANU-PF is in a bit of disarray as various
factions jockey for position. In addition to the Mujuru and
Mnangagwa factions, there is what he terms the ‘loose’
faction which counts Gono, Minister of Transportation
Nicholas Goche, and others as members. He predicts that this
group will have even greater influence in the future.
Mugabe, in the meantime, continues to skillfully play each
faction against the other, while he waits to see who will
Qfaction against the other, while he waits to see who will
rise to the top.
¶4. (C) Security sector reform is an absolute essential
prerequisite to political reform in Zimbabwe, according to
Foreland. Until the problem of the security chiefs is
solved, there is no way to guarantee democracy in this
country. Foreland noted that a group of locals, including
some white Zimbabweans who fought against the Ian Smith
regime, is working the issue. (NOTE: Some ex-liberation
combatants, both black and white, have formed the Zimbabwe
Peace and Security Programme (www.zpsp.org) to work on
security sector reform with ZANU-PF, MDC, and the military
and police. Initial stages of the project are funded by
Swedepeace. END NOTE.) Foreland said that this initiative
will take some time to work, but he is optimistic about its
eventual success.
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Foreland is the first Western ambassador
to whom I have spoken who did not mention sanctions. In a
Fishmonger Heads of Mission’s meeting soon after I arrived,
he was the ambassador who publicly accused the EU of being
‘soft’ on Zimbabwe regarding suspension from the Kimberly
Process, and though he does not make strong public statements
often, supports a continued tough line with ZANU-PF. He is
HARARE 00000928 002 OF 002
not against engaging them, but is not at all convinced that
the top layer of the current leadership is capable of true
reform. END COMMENT.
RAY
(27 VIEWS)
