Former United States ambassador to Zimbabwe, Charles Ray, says the decision by Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa to lift tariffs on US products to Zimbabwe is a fatal blow to the opposition because it makes it more difficult for the opposition to solicit material support from Washington to end the Mnangagwa regime.
In an opinion piece he authored with Michael Walsh, a senior fellow in the Africa programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute based in Philadelphia, Ray says the move could be the route to Mnangagwa’s survival especially if relations between the US and Zimbabwe improve.
Mnangagwa is currently serving his second term which ends in 2028 but he is under pressure to step down now. His supporters, however, want him to stay on until 2030.
Ray, who was ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012, when Zimbabwe was under a unity government, is now chair of the Africa programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
He says Mnangagwa’s “wickedly pragmatic move” could achieve three short term strategic outcomes.
- “First, it put the ZANU-PF party back in international headlines. Autocratic regimes often highly value such media coverage to maintain their grip on power.
- “Second, it sent a signal to the White House that Zimbabwe is open to exploring a reset in bilateral relations. Given the Mnangagwa government’s track record, this could prove to be a critical move.
- “Third, it made it more difficult for ZANU-PF opposition to solicit the material support of the US government in its campaign to end the Mnangagwa regime. Improved relations with the US could be a route to regime survival.”
Ray, however, adds that the move could also jeopardise Zimbabwe’s relations with its neighbours in the Southern African Development Community.
“Concerns are being quietly expressed by other SADC member states that Mnangagwa’s unilateral decision to suspend tariffs on US goods counts as a violation of SADC rules. Those rules were designed to ensure nondiscriminatory tariff treatment among SADC member states,” Ray says.
“Some experts claim Mnangagwa has single-handedly jeopardised this cornerstone of intraregional trade promotion to advance his own self-interests.”
He adds: “Now the question is whether other SADC countries will follow suit, particularly Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia. The longstanding bilateral defence ties with the US provides a compelling argument for Botswana to pursue its own interests in responding to US tariffs, and the Lobito Corridor delivers a persuasive argument for Angola, DRC and Zambia to pursue their own interests (or their collective interests as a subgroup) in responding to US tariffs.
“To compound matters for the other SADC members, the USDRC minerals deal provides an even more compelling argument for the DRC to pursue its own interests in responding to US tariffs. It will therefore be interesting to see how the other SADC members react in the coming weeks.
“If there are more defections, this would not only be detrimental to South Africa’s national security, foreign policy and trade interests but also harm the national security, foreign policy and trade interests of other Brics member states, particularly Iran and the People’s Republic of China.”
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