United States embassy officials still held the forlorn hope that Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change could pip Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front in the 2002 presidential elections but the figures were heavily skewed in favour of Mugabe.
Commenting on the preliminary results ambassador Joseph Sullivan said, it was too early to predict a winner because voting continued in Harare and Chitungwiza.
“It is also important to remember that these numbers are based on official government figures, which may differ vastly from the real voter turnout. The government, through these statistical releases and Information Minister Jonathan Moyo’s analyses on radio, has sought to build expectations for a large rural and small urban turnout.
“Our teams noticed massive voter turnouts in MDC strongholds on March 9, which raise questions about the reliability of the GOZ data. Nevertheless, should the data hold up on further review, it appears that the GOZ’s 6 month campaign of violence and intimidation, coupled with the calculated confusion wrought by decreasing urban polling stations, increasing rural stations, and conflicting information about the voter rolls, has proven successful.”
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE640, ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
111257Z Mar 02
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1217
PAGE 01 HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00
VCE-00 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W
——————7280C2 111350Z /38
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1172
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000640
SIPDIS
PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER
AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR
MUGABE
REF: HARARE 416
CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B)
AND (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. BASED ON OFFICIAL STATISTICS RELEASED
THUS FAR (WHICH WE HAVE NO WAY TO VERIFY), WE EXPECT
ZANU-PF TO CLAIM VICTORY IN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS. TURNOUT TO DATE, EVEN IN AREAS WHERE VOTING
HAS BEEN TRUNCATED, HAS EXCEEDED JUNE 2000 LEVELS IN ALL
PROVINCES SAVE BULAWAYO. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT OF THOSE REGISTERED IN JANUARY TURNED UP
TO VOTE, AND AS WE PREDICTED EARLIER, A LOWER TURNOUT
FAVORS ZANU-PF. VOTER INCREASES FROM THE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HIGHEST IN ZANU-PF
STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND, LIKELY SUPPLEMENTED BY ZANU-
PF’S LAST-MINUTE REGISTRATION CAMPAIGN. HIGH TURNOUTS
IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO MAY PRESENT THE ONLY REAL
WILD CARD. SIX MONTHS OF CONTINUOUS VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION, COUPLED WITH THE DIFFICULTIES FACED BY
URBAN VOTERS, ARE THE ONLY REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS FOR
THE RELATIVELY LOW TURNOUT. END SUMMARY.
NUMBERS FAVOR MUGABE AND ZANU-PF
———————————
¶2. (C) OFFICIAL VOTING STATISTICS RELEASED THUS FAR
IMPLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF TO
DECLARE VICTORY ONCE VOTING HAS CONCLUDED IN THE MARCH
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE STATISTICS, BY PROVINCE,
ARE AS FOLLOWS:
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z
PROVINCE VOTES VOTES CAST PERCENTAGE
IN 2000 IN 2002** OF 2000
BULAWAYO 171,669 169,000 98%
HARARE* 394,073 415,000 105%
MANICALAND 272,909 363,000 133%
MASHONALAND CENTRAL 247,953 331,000 133%
MASHONALAND EAST 278,221 328,000 118%
MASHONALAND WEST 246,783 293,000 119%
MASVINGO 286,741 380,000 133%
MATEBELELAND NORTH 147,828 157,000 106%
MATEBELELAND SOUTH 159,579 165,000 103%
MIDLANDS 350,505 379,000 108%
PROVINCE VOTERS VOTES CAST PERCENTAGE
REGISTERED IN 2002**
BULAWAYO 368,028 169,000 46%
HARARE*** 882,176 415,000 47%
MANICALAND 658,694 363,000 55%
MASHONALAND CENTRAL 480,092 331,000 69%
MASHONALAND EAST 589,185 328,000 56%
MASHONALAND WEST 572,677 293,000 51%
MASVINGO 655,122 380,000 58%
MATEBELELAND NORTH 338,188 157,000 46%
MATEBELELAND SOUTH 343,993 165,000 48%
MIDLANDS 724,659 379,000 52%
* INCLUDES CHITUNGWIZA.
** THROUGH MARCH 10 AT 5 P.M.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z
*** VOTING CONTINUES HAPHAZARDLY.
¶3. (C) WE PREDICTED THAT WITH A 60 PERCENT TURNOUT, MDC
LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION, ALBEIT BY A NARROW MARGIN. NUMBERS DO NOT
QUITE REACH THAT PERCENTAGE LEVEL, HOWEVER. CURRENT
NUMBERS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 53% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
TURNED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH 5 P.M. ON MARCH 10.
HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS
——————————————
¶4. (C) MORE IMPORTANTLY, FROM THESE NUMBERS, IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST VOTER TURNOUTS OCCURRED IN TRADITIONAL
ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES. EACH
PROVINCE HAD WELL OVER 50% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS TURN OUT,
FOR AN OVERALL VOTING TURNOUT AVERAGE OF 58% OF TOTAL
REGISTERED VOTERS. MOREOVER, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES
EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN OVERALL VOTERS,
APPROXIMATELY 179,000 VOTERS. WE ATTRIBUTE THIS
INCREASE TO ONE OR BOTH OF TWO FACTORS: 1) A SUCCESSFUL
EFFORT BY ZANU-PF TO GET OUT LOYAL SUPPORTERS, AND 2)
STUFFED BALLOT BOXES BY THE RULING PARTY IN THIS LARGELY
NO-GO AREA FOR THE MDC.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1215
PAGE 01 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00
VCE-00 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01
PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W
——————7280AC 111349Z /38
O 111257Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1173
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000640
SIPDIS
PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER
AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR
MUGABE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z
TURNOUT IN MDC STRONGHOLDS LOWER THAN EXPECTED
——————————————— —
¶5. (C) THE MOST SURPRISING THING REFLECTED IN OFFICIAL
STATISTICS IS THE LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED TURNOUT IN
EXPECTED MDC STRONGHOLDS, ESPECIALLY IN BULAWAYO, THE
ONLY PLACE WHERE VOTER TURNOUT IS LOWER THAN IN THE JUNE
2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. WE EXPECT THAT ONCE
VOTING RECOMMENCES IN HARARE, THOSE NUMBERS WILL HEAVILY
FAVOR THE MDC. PRESENTLY, OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT IN MDC
STRONGHOLDS IS AROUND 48.36%, WELL BELOW THAT PROJECTED.
AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THIS
DECLINE IS EXPLAINED BY THE GOZ DECISION TO PROVIDE A
REDUCED NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES IN A COMPLEX DOUBLE AND
TRIPLE-TIER ELECTION.
MASVINGO AND MANICALAND ONLY WILDCARDS
—————————————
¶6. (C) THE ONLY OTHER PROVINCES WITH MORE THAN 50
PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT WAS IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO,
WHERE 55% AND 58%, RESPECTIVELY, OF THOSE REGISTERED
TURNED OUT TO VOTE. MANICALAND SPLITS APPROXIMATELY 60-
40 FAVORING THE MDC OVER THE RULING ZANU-PF. THE ZANU-
PF CANNOT AT PRESENT LAY CLAIM TO ITS HISTORICAL
STRONGHOLD IN MASVINGO HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WELL-
PUBLICIZED DISPUTE BETWEEN ZANU-PF STRONGMAN EDDISON
ZVOBGO AND PRESIDENT MUGABE. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS
THAT ZVOBGO ENERGIZED HIS SUPPORTERS TO GET OUT AND
VOTE, BUT FOR TSVANGIRAI INSTEAD OF MUGABE. EVEN SO,
ZVOBGO NEVER EXPECTED THE MDC TO DO MORE THAN SPLIT THE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z
MASVINGO VOTE.
COMMENT
——–
¶7. (C) IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A WINNER, AS
VOTING CONTINUES IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON
OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT FIGURES, WHICH MAY DIFFER VASTLY
FROM THE REAL VOTER TURNOUT. THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH
THESE STATISTICAL RELEASES AND INFORMATION MINISTER
JONATHAN MOYO’S ANALYSES ON RADIO, HAS SOUGHT TO BUILD
EXPECTATIONS FOR A LARGE RURAL AND SMALL URBAN TURNOUT.
OUR TEAMS NOTICED MASSIVE VOTER TURNOUTS IN MDC
STRONGHOLDS ON MARCH 9, WHICH RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
RELIABILITY OF THE GOZ DATA. NEVERTHELESS, SHOULD THE
DATA HOLD UP ON FURTHER REVIEW, IT APPEARS THAT THE
GOZ’S 6 MONTH CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION,
COUPLED WITH THE CALCULATED CONFUSION WROUGHT BY
DECREASING URBAN POLLING STATIONS, INCREASING RURAL
STATIONS, AND CONFLICTING INFORMATION ABOUT THE VOTER
ROLLS, HAS PROVEN SUCCESSFUL.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
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