After losing the Kuwadzana and Highfield seats the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front appeared to have stepped up its harassment of Movement for Democratic Change legislators.
Several MDC legislators were charged with contravening the Public Order and Security Act and could face penalties of up to 20 years in jail.
Here is a list of who was facing what:
Full cable:
Viewing cable 03HARARE685, LIKELIHOOD OF A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY LOW
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000685
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2013
SUBJECT: LIKELIHOOD OF A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY LOW
REF: A. HARARE 656
¶B. HARARE 648
¶C. 02 HARARE 2478
¶D. 02 HARARE 2354
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY JEMISON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) A
ND (D).
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (C) The Movement for Democratic Change party (MDC) victory
in the Kuwadzana and Highfield by-elections held on March 29
and 30 is a blow to the Zimbabwe African National Unity
Patriotic Front,s (ZANU-PF) plans to engineer a two-thirds
majority in Parliament needed to change the constitution.
ZANU-PF will have to step up its campaign of harassment into
exile or arrests of MDC MPs, pry loose at least three more
seats to contest (in addition to two currently vacated
seats), and win the subsequent by-elections if it is to
achieve this goal. The likelihood that this confluence of
events will occur is low, particularly if the by-elections
are in urban areas, and ZANU-PF may have to come up with an
alternative plan. End summary.
————————-
Two-thirds is a Long Shot
————————-
¶2. (U) The Movement for Democratic Change party (MDC) victory
in the Kuwadzana and Highfield by-elections held on March 29
and 30 is a blow to the Zimbabwe African National Unity
Patriotic Front,s (ZANU-PF) plans to engineer a two-thirds
majority in Parliament needed to change the constitution.
ZANU-PF currently holds 93 seats, the MDC holds 54, and
ZANU-Ndongo, one. ZANU-PF could still manage to finagle a
two-thirds majority if they win the two upcoming
by-elections, and can open three more seats by convicting MDC
MPs on trial or charged with felonies, and imprisoning them
for six months or more. (Note: The Zimbabwe constitution
states that if a Member of Parliament is convicted of a crime
and sentenced to death or imprisonment for a term of six
months or more, the MP will cease to exercise that function.
The seat will become vacant after 30 days from the date of
the sentence. End note.)
——————————————— —
Next By-Elections Won,t Change Balance of Power
——————————————— —
¶3. (U) ZANU-PF will have two more opportunities to try to
bully Harare area residents into voting for the ruling party
in Harare Central and Zengeza. Mike Auret, MDC MP for Harare
Central, resigned in February for health reasons but a
by-election date has yet to be scheduled. Tafadzwa
Musekiwa,s seat will be open soon too. Musekiwa fled to the
U.K. on 22 November 2002 after receiving death threats.
According to the Zimbabwe constitution, an MP cannot be
absent from Parliament for 21 consecutive sittings.
Musekiwa,s 21 days were up on March 20. These urban area
elections, where MDC garnered more than 75 percent and 73
percent of the 2000 parliamentary vote for Harare Central and
Zengeza, respectively, will most likely result in MDC
victories but ZANU-PF will probably employ some of its
heavy-handed tactics, at least in the high-density suburb of
Zengeza.
¶4. (U) In addition to these MDC vacancies, two ZANU-PF MP
positions opened up. Swithun Mombeshora, MP for Makonde and
Minister of Higher and Tertiary Education, died on March 17
and a by-election will be held there. ZANU-PF suspended the
MP from Chiredzi South, Aaron Baloyi, but he is appealing the
decision. ZANU-PF received 61.7 percent of the vote during
the 2000 elections and 71.2 during the presidential election.
The results of these by-elections will most likely not
change the balance of power in Parliament.
——————————
POSA – The Curse of the MDC MP
——————————
¶5. (U) The wildcard in the parliamentary shuffle is the
outcome of the many criminal charges levied against MDC MPs.
Most of the charges are for alleged violations of the Public
Order and Security Act (POSA), which can carry a penalty of
up to 20 years imprisonment. To date, two MDC MPs are on
trial: Fletcher Dulini Ncube from Lobengula-Magwegwe and
Renson Gasela from Gweru Rural. Job Sikhala, MP for St.
Mary,s; Nelson Chamisa, MP for Kuwadzana; Bennie
Tumbare-Mutasa, MP for Seke; Moses Ndlovu, MP from
Bulilimamangwe North; Gibson Sibanda, Vice President of MDC
and MP from Nkulumane; Peter Nyoni, MP from Hwange East;
Silas Mangono, MP from Masvingo Central; Paul Madzore, MP
from Glen View; Abedinico Bhebhe, MP from Nkayi; and Austin
Mupandawana, MP from Kadoma Central have at least one case
pending. Chamisa, Sikhala and Madzore have more than 2 cases
pending.
The following is a summary of charges levied against MDC MPs,
when known, and the MDC margin of victory in the 2002
presidential election:
–Ncube is charged, along with five other MDC party
officials, with the November 2001 murder of Cain Nkala, a
Bulawayo area war veteran leader. The MDC received 83.4
percent of votes cast during the 2002 elections.
–Gasela is charged, along with Morgan Tsvangirai and
Welshman Ncube, with treason. The MDC received 69.7 percent
of the vote in 2002 but only 59.3 percent during the 2000
parliamentary elections.
–Sikhala was charged on February 24 with assaulting a police
officer and thus contravening POSA. The case is remanded to
June 26. The MDC got 73.4 percent of the 2000 vote and 74.5
percent of the 2002 vote.
–Chamisa, the newly elected MP for Kuwadzana, was charged on
March 10 with attempting to overthrow the ZANU-PF government,
in contravention of POSA. The MDC received 70.9 percent of
the vote, compared to 76.9 percent in 2000 and 77.9 percent
in 2002.
–Tumbare-Mutasa was charged on March 17 with discharging a
firearm within 50 meters of the public, in contravention of
the Firearms Act. The MDC only got 44.8 percent of the vote
during the 2002 elections and 45.6 percent during the 2000
election.
–Ndlovu was charged with assaulting a war veteran sometime
last year, in violation of POSA. The MDC got 57.6 percent of
the vote in the 2000 elections and 56.3 percent in the 2002
election.
–Gibson Sibanda, vice-president of the MDC and MP for
Nkulumane, is being charged under section 5 of POSA for his
role in planning the stay-away on March 18 and 19. The MDC
got 82.2 percent of the 2000 vote and 78.4 percent of the
2002 vote.
–Madzore is being charged under POSA. He has at least three
cases pending. The MDC got 81.2 percent of the 2000 vote and
85.4 percent of the 2002 vote.
–Mangongo was arrested for allegedly gathering MDC activists
during the March stay away. Mangongo is one of two MDC MPs
from Masvingo province (out of 14) and the only one from the
three Masvingo districts. The MDC got 59.8 percent of the
2000 vote and 59.6 percent of the 2002 vote.
–Mupandawana was arrested in March for allegedly destroying
property during the two-day stay away. Mupandawana is one of
two MDC MPs from Mashonaland West (out of 12), a ZANU-PF
stronghold, and the only one from the three Kadoma districts.
The MDC got 67.4 percent of the 2000 vote and 59.8 percent
of the 2002 vote.
–Bhebhe and Nyoni were arrested in February for allegedly
carrying offensive weapons, a violation of POSA. The MDC got
65.8 and 77.9 percent of the 2000 vote and 54.9 and 73.4
percent of the 2002 vote for Nkayi and Hwange East,
respectively.
————————
Questionable ZANU-PF MPs
————————
¶6. (U) A possible glitch in ZANU-PF,s quest for a two-thirds
majority is the High Court ruling that nullified several
election results because the elections did not occur in a
free and fair environment, if ZANU-PF chooses not to ignore
this. Despite the ruling, none of the ZANU-PF MPs have
stepped down, arguing that because they are appealing to the
Supreme Court, they do not have to. The constituencies are
Buhera North, Hurungwe East, Mutoko South, Chiredzi North,
Gokwe North, and Gokwe South. All are ZANU-PF. The Buhera
North and Chiredzi North parliamentary elections were
relatively close, with the ZANU-PF candidate garnering 53.6
and 51 percent of the vote, respectively (53.7 and 68.2
percent for the 2002 elections).
——-
Comment
——-
¶7. (C) After losing the Kuwadzana and Highfield elections,
ZANU-PF effort to grab a two-thirds majority in Parliament is
a long shot. As the most recent by-elections have shown, it
will be very difficult for ZANU-PF to win an urban
by-election, even if they resort to intimidation and
vote-buying. (See Reftels) ZANU-PF would have a much better
chance of taking some of the MDC’s rural constituencies
(Gweru rural, Seke, Bulilimangwe North, Nkayi, Kadoma, and
Masvingo Central), since the margins of victory for the MDC
were smaller and ZANU-PF could more discreetly manipulate the
system to win these seats, using the bare-knuckle tactic they
perfected in Insiza in October 2002. (See Reftels). End
comment.
SULLIVAN
(31 VIEWS)
