Although presidential elections were just a year away, the United States embassy in Harare was so convinced that President Robert Mugabe would not just go away and mapped out strategies to deal with him and recommended action that the new United States government under George Bush should take.
“Mugabe will not go gently into that good night of retirement,” the embassy said in a cable dispatched in January 2001. “We seriously doubt that it is possible to convince him to do so. Even if we were able to scrape together the considerable amount of money to finance a generous ‘golden parachute’ for him to leave the scene, we do not think Mugabe would fulfil the terms of the bargain.”
The embassy said the US government must help contain and reverse the further erosion of democratic institutions, and avoid a social explosion or humanitarian disaster in Zimbabwe.
Working with the business community, civil society, and the opposition would be crucial to fulfilling its goals.
The US government should fight for the restoration of the rule of law and continue to condemn the breakdown of law and order, the attacks on the judiciary and the partisan use of the security forces.
It had to send an unequivocal message that it believed a more level playing field was needed for the presidential campaign.
Though the US wanted to continue to remain impartial in assessing what was happening in Zimbabwe, the embassy said impartiality should not be confused with neutrality.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 01HARARE524, DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
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260903Z Jan 01
CONFIDENTIAL PTO5169
PAGE 01 HARARE 00524 01 OF 07 260906Z
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8088
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) OVER THE NEXT YEAR, PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL FACE
HIS GREATEST CHALLENGE IN 20 YEARS TO STAYING IN POWER.
A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, IN WHICH MUGABE INTENDS TO RUN,
IS SLATED FOR EARLY 2002. HE MUST CONTEND WITH A
SIZABLE AND RELATIVELY UNIFIED POLITICAL OPPOSITION, A
COSTLY AND UNPOPULAR INTERVENTION IN THE CONGO,
MALCONTENTS IN HIS RULING PARTY, AND HIS OWN PLUMMETING
POPULARITY ACROSS ZIMBABWE. MUGABE IS INTRANSIGENT,
HOWEVER, AND WILL USE ALMOST ANY MEANS NECESSARY,
INCLUDING WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE, TO ENSURE HIS CONTINUED
GRIP ON THE COUNTRY. THE PRESIDENT APPEARS WILLING TO
SACRIFICE THE ECONOMY IN ORDER TO PURSUE HIS LAND
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM — THE ONLY CREDIBLE PLATFORM THE
RULING PARTY HAS LEFT — AND PUNISH HIS ENEMIES,
PARTICULARLY WHITE FARMERS. THE PRESIDENT’S HENCHMEN
HAVE ATTACKED AND ATTEMPTED TO UNDERMINE EVERY SEGMENT
OF SOCIETY, INCLUDING THE INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY AND THE
MEDIA, THAT APPEARS OPPOSED TO HIS POLICIES. THE
PRESIDENT DOES NOT REACT WELL TO INTERNATIONAL
CRITICISM, SO ANY ATTEMPT TO INFLUENCE OR MODERATE HIS
THINKING SHOULD BE PUT IN TERMS OF BENEFITS TO HIS
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 01 OF 07 260906Z
CONTINUED RULE AND SHOULD INVOLVE THE REGIONAL LEADERS
TO WHOM HE STILL LISTENS. U.S. INTERESTS LIE IN
BOLSTERING THE DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS THAT ARE UNDER
SIEGE AND PREVENTING BOTH A SOCIAL EXPLOSION AND
ECONOMIC IMPLOSION THAT WOULD HAVE SERIOUS REGIONAL
IMPLICATIONS. ZIMBABWE, WITH ITS DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS, RESILIENT MARKET ECONOMY AND INDUSTRIAL
BASE, RESPECTED JUDICIARY, AND THE BEST-EDUCATED WORK
FORCE IN AFRICA, MATTERS AND MERITS OUR TIMELY AND
CREATIVE INTERVENTION IN ORDER TO PRESERVE THESE. END
SUMMARY.
—————-
A PITCHED BATTLE
—————-
¶2. (C) 2001 WILL BE A CRITICAL YEAR FOR ZIMBABWE AS THE
COUNTRY’S TWO POLITICAL PARTIES SQUARE OFF TO WAGE WHAT
PROMISES TO BE A PITCHED BATTLE TO SECURE THE PRESIDENCY
IN 2002. ALTHOUGH NOT FORMALLY CONFIRMED, ROBERT MUGABE
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE THE CANDIDATE FOR THE RULING
ZANU-PF AND MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WILL HEAD UP THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) TICKET.
AT THIS WRITING THERE IS ONE TRUISM IN ZIMBABWEAN
POLITICS: ZANU-PF CANNOT WIN ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD.
A HELEN SUZMAN FOUNDATION POLL RELEASED IN OCTOBER 2000
SHOWED SUPPORT FOR MUGABE AT ITS LOWEST POST-
INDEPENDENCE EBB, PROVIDING A NATIONAL SUPPORT RATING OF
ONLY 13 PERCENT, WITH A 6 PERCENT URBAN AND 17 PERCENT
RURAL SPLIT.
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00524 01 OF 07 260906Z
¶3. (C) THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT IS SUSPICIOUS OF AND
DOES NOT FULLY EMBRACE THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS,
PARTICULARLY AS IT RELATES TO THE TRANSFER OF POWER. HE
IS A VENGEFUL SURVIVOR, HAVING MANAGED TO GET THROUGH A
PROTRACTED LIBERATION STRUGGLE DURING THE 1960S AND
1970S, A CIVIL WAR IN THE EARLY 1980S AND TWO MAJOR
POLITICAL DEFEATS IN THE LAST YEAR. AT THE DECEMBER 2000
ZANU-PF CONGRESS, HE NEUTRALIZED ANY OPPOSITION TO HIS
CONTINUED ROLE AS LEADER OF THE PARTY, AND THOSE
OPPONENTS WHOM HE WAS UNABLE TO CO-OPT (SUCH AS FORMER
MINISTER EDDISON ZVOBGO) WERE RELEGATED TO THE POLITICAL
WILDERNESS. WE CREDIT THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT,
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, WHO WAS PROMOTED TO THE FOURTH-
HIGHEST POST IN THE RULING PARTY AFTER MUGABE, HIS TWO
VICE PRESIDENTS (BOTH CO-EQUALS) AND PARTY CHAIRMAN JOHN
NKOMO WITH CONDUCTING THE PARTY PURGES. IN THE OFFING
MUGABE SUCCEEDED IN CONSOLIDATING HIS BASES, PLACING
LOYAL SUPPORTERS IN KEY POSITIONS, IN ANTICIPATION OF AN
EVENTUAL TAKEOVER. MUGABE AND MNANGAGWA’S FATES ARE
INTERTWINED AND, FOR THE TIME BEING, THE PRESIDENT IS
ENSURED UNSWERVING SUPPORT OF HIS POLITICAL PROGRAM AND
AGENDA REGARDLESS OF ITS MERITS, VICIOUSNESS OR
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R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8089
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 02 OF 07 260906Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
ANCILLARY CONSEQUENCES. MUGABE’S CABINET IS ALSO
COMPLETELY EMASCULATED. THOSE WHO ARE WILLING TO OFFER
THOUGHTS CONTRARY TO THE PRESIDENT’S PLANS HAVE BEEN
OVERRULED OR BANISHED. THERE IS NO “MODERATE WING” OR
“INTELLECTUAL WING” OF ZANU-PF THAT IS IN A POSITION TO
CHECK THE PRESIDENT’S BEHAVIOR.
¶4. (C) EDDISON ZVOBGO, RECENTLY DEPOSED FROM ZANU-PF’S
POLITBURO, TOLD US JANUARY 4 THAT HE SEES NO WAY THAT
HIS PARTY CAN WIN WITH MUGABE AS ITS STANDARD BEARER IN
THE FEBRUARY OR MARCH 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
MATABELELAND IS “IRRETRIEVABLY LOST” TO THE MDC, AND THE
HEAVILY POPULATED MAJOR URBAN AREAS, WHERE HE EXPECTS A
MASSIVE TURNOUT OF VOTERS, ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL GO TO
THE MDC AS WELL. HE THINKS MANICALAND AND EVEN
MASVINGO, HIS OWN PROVINCE, WILL GO TO THE MDC. AN
ELECTION HELD DURING THE RAINY SEASON IN THE RURAL AREAS
OF MASHONALAND — ZANU-PF’S CORE AREA OF SUPPORT — WILL
BE MARKED BY A LOW TURNOUT, BECAUSE THE INFRASTRUCTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN FLOODED OR WASHED OUT. INTERESTINGLY,
ZVOBGO THOUGHT THAT THE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE THAT ZANU-PF
WOULD HAVE TO DEPLOY IN ORDER TO COW THE POPULATION INTO
VOTING OVERWHELMINGLY FOR ZANU-PF WOULD HAVE TO BE SO
GREAT AS TO BE UNACCEPTABLE.
¶5. (C) WE HAVE BEEN PICKING UP RUMORS THAT THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MAY BE HELD SOONER, POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER, AS A SNAP ELECTION THAT
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 02 OF 07 260906Z
CATCHES THE MDC OFF GUARD INCREASES THE CHANCES OF A
ZANU-PF VICTORY. THAT THIS MAY BE ILLEGAL UNDER THE
CONSTITUTION WILL, IN OUR OPINION, NOT DETER MUGABE FROM
SUCH AN ACT IF HE SEES THE EARLIER TIMING AS TO HIS
ADVANTAGE. ZVOBGO ORIGINALLY SUGGESTED — AND WAS
OVERRULED — THAT MUGABE RESIGN AND CALL A SNAP ELECTION
IN OCTOBER TO HEAD OFF THE OBSTACLE OF LIKELY FOOD
SHORTAGES AND THROW THE OPPOSITION OFF BALANCE. (NOTE:
MDC PARLIAMENTARIAN DAVID COLTART, WHO IS ALSO A
PROMINENT ATTORNEY, TOLD US ON JANUARY 24 THAT THE
ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31,
¶2002. END NOTE). OBSERVERS HERE PREDICT SHORTAGES OF
STAPLES SUCH AS MAIZE AND WHEAT BY YEAR’S END. WITH ALL
ALLOWANCES FOR MUDDLED MAOIST MINDS, IT SHOULD BE
GRANTED THAT THE MEN LEADING ZANU-PF ARE NOT FOOLS: THEY
WOULD NOT WANT MUGABE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT DURING WHAT
COULD BE THE EARLY STAGES OF A POSSIBLE FOOD SECURITY
CRISIS.
¶6. (C) THE RULING PARTY’S BRUTAL MACHINATIONS IN THE
RUN-UP TO THE BY-ELECTIONS IN BIKITA AND MARONDERA
DEMONSTRATE THAT RETAINING CONTROL BY ANY MEANS IS A
STANDING ORDER. VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND BLATANT
BRIBERY AND COERCION OF THE ELECTORATE ARE OCCURRING
WITH LITTLE ATTENTION PAID TO APPEARANCES. WRESTING THE
BIKITA SEAT AWAY FROM THE MDC WAS ALL THAT MATTERED, AND
IF THOSE IN CABINET FELT ANY REMORSE, WE SAW NO EVIDENCE
OF IT. THIS INCREASINGLY FREQUENT SUSPENSION OF THE
RULE OF LAW IS A PARTICULARLY WORRISOME TREND AS IT
WEAKENS THE VERY FOUNDATIONS OF THE NATION. WE FEAR
THAT THIS GROWING CULTURE OF VIOLENCE IS BEGINNING TO
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00524 02 OF 07 260906Z
INFECT THE OPPOSITION, WHICH, UNTIL NOW, HAS MAINTAINED
THE MORAL HIGH GROUND AND BACKED AWAY FROM
CONFRONTATION.
——————-
THE ECONOMY SUFFERS
——————-
¶7. (C) IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW MUGABE CAN
ARREST THE COUNTRY’S WORSENING ECONOMY GIVEN HIS NON-
NEGOTIABLE POLITICAL GOALS OF GIVING LAND TO THE PEOPLE
AND STAYING IN POWER. IN THIS AREA ZVOBGO FRANKLY
ADMITTED THAT THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP HAS ITS PRIORITIES
ALL WRONG, CITING THE POLITBURO’S LOW RANKING ON ITS
PRIORITY LIST OF RENEWED TIES WITH THE MULTILATERAL
LENDERS. WE MUST NOT FORGET THAT MUGABE ONCE REFERRED
TO THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AS A “MONSTER.”
MUGABE APPEARS PERFECTLY WILLING TO SINK THE ECONOMY IN
ORDER TO BRING HIS LAND PROGRAM TO PASS. IT APPEARS
THAT NO AMOUNT OF REASONING OR STRENGTH OF ARGUMENT WILL
DISSUADE HIM FROM PURSUING THE CURRENT “ACCELERATED”
LAND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, FROM WHICH VIRTUALLY ALL THE
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ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————BBDB6E 260907Z /38
R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8090
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 03 OF 07 260907Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
PRINCIPAL DONORS HAVE WITHDRAWN FINANCIAL SUPPORT. THE
PRESIDENT’S APPROACH HAS BEEN TO RESETTLE POOR,
UNTRAINED AND UNEQUIPPED SUBSISTENCE FARMERS ON
COMMERCIAL FARMS WITH A SELECTIVE REGARD FOR LEGALITIES.
EXPLORATORY EFFORTS LED BY UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAM ADMINISTRATOR, MARK MALLOCH-BROWN, TO BRIDGE THE
GAP BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT’S POSITION AND THAT OF THE
DONORS HAVE BORNE LITTLE FRUIT TO DATE.
¶8. (C) MUGABE HAS BEEN THE MAIN BENEFICIARY OF THE LAND
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, BECAUSE IT HAS GIVEN HIM THE
PRETEXT TO PUNISH HIS ENEMIES, NAMELY THE WHITE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS WHOM HE PERCEIVES AS BANKROLLING THE
OPPOSITION MDC. LAST YEAR BEFORE THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS, HE LABELED ZIMBABWE’S WHITES — LESS THAN ONE
HALF PERCENT OF THE POPULATION — AS “ENEMIES OF THE
STATE.” HIS TACTICS INCLUDE USING TARGETED, LOW-
INTENSITY VIOLENCE AGAINST THE COMMERCIAL FARMING SECTOR
IN ORDER TO FORCE THE MEMBERS OF THIS HERETOFORE
PRIVILEGED AND WEALTHY GROUP TO ABANDON THEIR ASSETS AND
NATIONALITY. OBSERVERS HERE TELL US THAT THE COMMERCIAL
FARMERS BROKE THE GENTLEMEN’S AGREEMENT IN WHICH ZANU-PF
WOULD ALLOW THEM TO PROSPER AND FEED THE COUNTRY IN
EXCHANGE FOR THEIR STAYING OUT OF POLITICS, WHEN MEMBERS
OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION WERE FILMED SIGNING
CHECKS FOR THE MDC’S WAR CHEST. NOW ANYTHING GOES, AND
MUGABE AND THE RULING PARTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UP THE
PRESSURE AND DEMONIZE THE FARMERS UNTIL HIS BID FOR A
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 03 OF 07 260907Z
RENEWED LEADERSHIP MANDATE IS SUCCESSFUL.
¶9. (C) THE FATE OF ETHNIC MINORITIES, URBAN DWELLERS
AND THE FORMAL ECONOMY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONCERNS OF
MUGABE’S NUMINOUS VISION FOR THE COUNTRY. CAPITALISTS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS DISREGARD, IF NOT OUTRIGHT
HOSTILITY, EITHER BY MOTHBALLING THEIR FIRMS OR
DISINVESTING OUTRIGHT. IF THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AT ITS CURRENT RAPID PACE, THE
CONSEQUENCES FOR THIS COUNTRY AND THE REGION WILL BE
DEVASTATING.
—————————————
MUGABE WILL NOT BE PUSHED OFF THE SCENE
—————————————
¶10. (C) MUGABE WILL NOT GO GENTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT
OF RETIREMENT. WE SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO
CONVINCE HIM TO DO SO. EVEN IF WE WERE ABLE TO SCRAPE
TOGETHER THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MONEY TO FINANCE A
GENEROUS “GOLDEN PARACHUTE” FOR HIM TO LEAVE THE SCENE,
WE DO NOT THINK MUGABE WOULD FULFILL THE TERMS OF THE
BARGAIN. NOR, IN OUR OPINION, IN HIS TIME LEFT ON STAGE
WILL HE LISTEN TO OR HEED WELL-INTENTIONED ADVICE COMING
FROM THOSE HE DOES NOT CONSIDER ABSOLUTE BACKERS. FOR
THOSE WITH LESS THAN WHOLEHEARTED SUPPORT, THE BEST WAY
TO MAKE MUGABE LISTEN IS TO APPEAL TO HIS DESIRE TO STAY
IN POWER. HE WILL AT LEAST CONSIDER ANY PROPOSAL THAT
IS COUCHED IN TERMS OF PROLONGING HIS POLITICAL
SURVIVAL. TRUE TO THEIR SELF-INTEREST, THE DEFENSE
FORCES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UNWAVERING AND OBSEQUIOUS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00524 03 OF 07 260907Z
ALLEGIANCE TO MUGABE. OFFERING STRATEGIES GROUNDED IN
MAINTAINING REGIME SECURITY, THE SENIOR MILITARY
LEADERSHIP REMAINS FOCUSED ON PERSONAL ECONOMIC
ENRICHMENT RATHER THAN A PROFESSIONAL CRITIQUE OF THE
DOMESTIC CONSEQUENCES OF FOREIGN ADVENTURISM. APPEALS
TO HIS VANITY WILL ALSO MAKE HIM TAKE NOTICE.
MOREOVER, WE SEE INDICATION THAT MEMBERS OF MUGABE’S
INNER CIRCLE, WHO HAVE STOLEN AND COMMITTED ATROCITIES,
ARE WORRIED THAT NOT ONLY WOULD MUGABE NOT TAKE CARE OF
THEM BUT ACTUALLY WOULD MAKE THEM THE FALL GUYS.
WILFRED MHANDA OF THE ZIMBABWE LIBERATORS PLATFORM — A
SMALL OFFSHOOT OF THE WAR VETERANS’ ASSOCIATION THAT
OPPOSES ZANU-PF’S POLITICIZATION OF THE EX-COMBATANTS —
TOLD US RECENTLY THAT AIR FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI
HAS MET TWICE WITH HIM TO EXPRESS EXACTLY THOSE FEARS.
WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT PEACE IN ZIMBABWE
WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITH ZANU-PF IN ITS CURRENT
ITERATION.
¶11. (C) HAVING NEUTRALIZED DISSENT WITHIN HIS PARTY,
MUGABE TAKES COMFORT FROM THE SUPPORT OF HIS NEIGHBORS.
ALTHOUGH PRIVATELY SOME MAY HAVE SPOKEN BLUNTLY TO THE
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ACTION AF-00
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DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
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——————BBDB80 260907Z /38
R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8091
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 04 OF 07 260907Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT, PUBLICLY THE CHORUS HAS BEEN ONE
OF ACKNOWLEDGMENT, ALBEIT A LUKEWARM ONE, THAT MUGABE IS
EMBARKED ON A RIGHTEOUS CRUSADE. SOUTH AFRICA, THE MOST
POWERFUL OF THESE IN THE SUB-CONTINENT AND THE ONE TO BE
MOST SERIOUSLY AFFECTED BY ZIMBABWE’S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE,
HAS TAKEN A CONSCIOUS DECISION TO ENGAGE MUGABE WITH
FREQUENT MINISTERIAL AND SUMMIT GATHERINGS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT HAS BEEN
RELUCTANT TO REMONSTRATE PUBLICLY WITH OR EXACT BEHAVIOR
MODIFICATION FROM HIS ZIMBABWEAN SENIOR. RATHER, MBEKI
HAS EXTENDED TO ZIMBABWE CREDITS FOR FUEL AND
ELECTRICITY, IN ORDER NOT TO ACCELERATE THE ZIMBABWEAN
ECONOMY’S COLLAPSE AND PROVOKE A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
THAT WOULD SPILL OVER THE LIMPOPO. ONLY THOSE HEADS OF
STATE WHOSE COUNTRIES ARE FAR AWAY FROM HIS, SUCH AS
NIGERIA’S OBASANJO, HAVE COME CLOSE TO EXPOSING THE
EMPEROR’S NAKEDNESS.
¶12. (C) IN ANY POLICY INITIATIVE TO CONTAIN SOME OF
MUGABE’S EXCESSES WE SHOULD VIEW ZIMBABWE’S NEIGHBORS,
SUCH AS SOUTH AFRICA, MOZAMBIQUE AND ZAMBIA, AS OUR
ALLIES. ALTHOUGH MUGABE CARES LITTLE WHAT THE WEST
THINKS OF HIS POLICIES, HE DOES WISH TO BE SEEN AS A
DEMOCRATIC LEADER IN THE WORLD CLUB. HE WISHES TO AVOID
THE OPPROBRIUM OF HIS FELLOW AFRICAN HEADS OF STATE, AS
HE HAS STAKED HIS CREDIBILITY WITH THEM ON THE
QUINTESSENTIALLY AFRICAN, ANTI-COLONIAL CHARACTER OF THE
ZIMBABWEAN LAND REFORM EXERCISE. THEIR EFFORTS TO
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 04 OF 07 260907Z
ADDRESS MUGABE’S ABUSES OF POWER, PARTICULARLY IN THE
CONTEXT OF THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
(SADC), MERIT OUR STRONG BACKING, ALTHOUGH WE MUST BEAR
IN MIND THAT IN THE END THESE MAY AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE
THAN SYMBOLIC MEASURES.
¶13. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ATTEMPTED TO PROJECT STRENGTH
IN THE CONGO AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN ORDER TO THRUST
HIMSELF ONTO THE WORLD STAGE AND UPSTAGE THE MUCH-
ADULATED NELSON MANDELA — THE THEN CHAIRMAN OF SADC —
WHO OPPOSED THE INTERVENTION. HIS LACK OF AN EXIT
STRATEGY, THE TOLL IN HUMAN LIVES AND TO THE NATIONAL
TREASURY OF THE CONTINUING QUAGMIRE, AND HIS LIMITED
ABILITY TO INFLUENCE THE UNPREDICTABLE BEHAVIOR OF HIS
LATE ALLY, LAURENT KABILA, ARE FACTS THAT SUGGEST THAT
HE LAID AN EGG. CONSEQUENTLY, IN SEEMINGLY DESPERATE
ATTEMPTS TO CREATE A PALATABLE SOUFFLQ, MUGABE’S SENIOR
MILITARY LEADERSHIP GROWS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED FROM ITS
REGIONAL COLLEAGUES. CIVIL SOCIETY VIEWS ITS POLICE AS
ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS IN VOTER INTIMIDATION TACTICS AND
CIVIL DISTURBANCE BRUTALITY. ZIMBABWE IS NOT A MILITARY
DANGER TO ITS NEIGHBORS AND DOES NOT PURSUE A WAR-LIKE
FOREIGN POLICY.
¶14. (C) WE HAVE HEARD THAT THE NEW CONGRESS MAY REVIVE
THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) TO CONDEMN THE MUGABE
GOVERNMENT. THE 2000 BILL MANDATED A “NO” VOTE BY THE
USG IN THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND
RULED OUT ANY FURTHER GOVERNMENT-TO-GOVERNMENT
ASSISTANCE OR DEBT RELIEF, BUT OFFERED CARROTS IN THE
FORM OF MONEY FOR LAND REFORM. WE SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT
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TO SINGLE OUT MUGABE FOR SANCTIONS OR ANY POLICY ACTION
THAT COULD BE CONSTRUED AS SUCH AND MAKE HIM A MARTYR.
MUGABE WOULD USE ENACTMENT OF THE ZDA TO DIVERT
RESPONSIBILITY FROM HIMSELF AND BLAME THE USG FOR ALL OF
ZIMBABWE’S MISHAPS AND WOES, A ROLE THE BRITISH NOW
HAVE. FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE TOLD AMBASSADOR MCDONALD
ON JULY 3, 2000 THAT PASSAGE OF THE ACT WOULD PUT
ZIMBABWE’S ECONOMY ON A WAR FOOTING, AND THAT ZIMBABWE
WOULD LASH OUT AT THE U.S. ANY WAY IT COULD. ALTHOUGH WE
WOULD NOT SHRINK FROM CRITICISM, WE MUST BE PREPARED FOR
A BACKLASH AND WEIGH THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUGABE COULD
BE STRENGTHENED DOMESTICALLY BY OUR ACTIONS.
———-
NEXT STEPS
———-
¶15. (C) OUR INTERESTS HERE LIE IN HELPING CONTAIN AND
REVERSE THE FURTHER EROSION OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS,
AND AVOID A SOCIAL EXPLOSION OR HUMANITARIAN DISASTER.
ZIMBABWEANS AND OTHER CITIZENS OF THE SUB-CONTINENT LOOK
TO THE UNITED STATES, AS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT AND
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CONFIDENTIAL PTO5177
PAGE 01 HARARE 00524 05 OF 07 260908Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————BBDB90 260908Z /38
R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8092
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 05 OF 07 260908Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
COHERENT PART OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, TO USE ITS
INFLUENCE AND EXERCISE LEADERSHIP IN ORDER TO HALT AND
EVEN REVERSE THE CURRENT TREND. OUR INFLUENCE IS
LIMITED TO THE USE OF SUASION WITH THIS AND OTHER
COUNTRIES’ GOVERNMENTS AND IMPLEMENTING PROGRAMS
DESIGNED TO MITIGATE CONFLICT AND WEAKEN THE GRIP OF
TYRANNY. WORKING WITH THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, CIVIL
SOCIETY, AND THE OPPOSITION WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
FULFILLING OUR GOALS. THE RESOURCES WE APPORTION TO
THESE WILL SUBSTANTIATE OUR LEADERSHIP.
¶16. (C) IN OUR OPINION THE USG’S PRINCIPAL BILATERAL
POLICY ISSUE WITH ZIMBABWE IS RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF
LAW. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONDEMN THE BREAKDOWN OF LAW
AND ORDER, THE ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY AND THE PARTISAN
USE OF THE SECURITY FORCES. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRESS THAT WE THINK THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT IS
ACCOUNTABLE FOR VIOLENCE PERPETRATED DURING THE LAND
INVASIONS AND POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS BY THE MILITARY,
INTELLIGENCE AND POLICE SERVICES. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MAKE THE POINT THAT THE AMNESTY ISSUED TO THOSE WHO
COMMITTED HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD IS,
AT A MINIMUM, MORALLY REPUGNANT TO US.
¶17. (C) WE SHOULD SEND AN UNEQUIVOCAL MESSAGE THAT WE
BELIEVE A MORE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD IS NEEDED FOR THE
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. WE SHOULD SIGNAL OUR EXPECTATION
OF A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION AND PUT THE ZIMBABWEAN
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 05 OF 07 260908Z
GOVERNMENT ON NOTICE THAT THE USG AND, INDEED THE WORLD,
WILL WATCH, DOCUMENT, AND EXPOSE AND REJECT AN UNFAIR
ELECTION. IT MAY NOT BE TOO BOLD TO SAY THAT IF THE
NEXT PRESIDENT IS ELECTED THROUGH VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION IT WILL HAVE SERIOUS DIPLOMATIC AND
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES.
¶18. (C) WE WANT TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN IMPARTIAL IN
ASSESSING WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE. IMPARTIALITY SHOULD
NOT BE CONFUSED WITH NEUTRALITY. WE SHOULD EMPHASIZE TO
THE OPPOSITION AS WELL THAT VIOLENCE IS NOT AN
ACCEPTABLE MEANS TO OBTAINING POWER.
——————-
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
——————-
¶19. (C) HOW DO WE BEGIN? WHILE WE KNOW THE NEW
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS WILL BE
EXTREMELY BUSY, WE RECOMMEND AN EARLY VISIT TO ZIMBABWE
AMONG OTHER COUNTRIES S/HE MIGHT WISH TO VISIT IN THE
REGION. IT WOULD SIGNAL TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC AND
AFRICA THAT THE CONTINENT WILL BE A FOREIGN POLICY
PRIORITY AND SEND AN UNEQUIVOCAL MESSAGE THAT THE NEW
ADMINISTRATION WILL HAVE TOUGH HUMAN RIGHTS AND GOOD
GOVERNANCE STANDARDS WITHOUT WHICH ALL ELSE FAILS. THE
ASSISTANT SECRETARY WOULD DELIVER THE MESSAGE THAT WE
KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON, WE ARE CONCERNED BY IT AND WE ARE
MONITORING CLOSELY THE MUGABE-MADE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
IN THE MAKING. SHE/HE ALSO WOULD ASK HOW MUGABE PLANS
TO REINSTATE THE RULE OF LAW WHILE AVOIDING HIS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00524 05 OF 07 260908Z
SOPHISTIC REASONING THAT IT REALLY DID NOT BREAK DOWN.
¶20. (C) WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK WITH WESTERN AND
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES TO EXPAND THE ISOLATION OF MUGABE AND
HIS TOP HENCHMEN. WE SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THROUGH
DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS THAT IF GOVERNMENT-DIRECTED VIOLENCE
CONTINUES, THERE WILL BE NO REFUGE FOR THESE MEN. WE
COULD PLACE VISA AND OTHER TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ON SENIOR
ZANU-PF MEMBERS TOGETHER WITH OTHER NATIONS, ESPECIALLY
THE EC. IF WE REALLY WANT TO GO AFTER MUGABE HIMSELF WE
COULD ASCERTAIN WHERE HIS ASSETS ARE LOCATED ABROAD AND
ASK THOSE COUNTRIES TO FREEZE THEM. THESE MEASURES
WOULD PLACE ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON THE MUGABE
GOVERNMENT, HELP SHRINK ITS BASE OF SUPPORT AND SIGNAL
INTERNATIONALLY THAT THERE ARE RULES TO THE GAME, THE
FLOUTING OF WHICH RESULTS IN PENALTIES.
¶21. (C) MEASURED ENGAGEMENT WITH THE MILITARY. WE MUST
CONTINUE TO BE COGENT IN OUR SELECTION OF TOOLS WITH
WHICH TO ENGAGE THE ZIMBABWE DEFENSE FORCES. WHILE WE
OUGHT TO REMAIN ENGAGED IN IMET, WE MUST QUESTION THE
NEED FOR ANY INITIATIVE, WHICH OFFERS US LIMITED DEGREES
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9929
PAGE 01 HARARE 00524 06 OF 07 260908Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————BBDB9B 260908Z /38
R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8093
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 06 OF 07 260908Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
OF ACCESS AND INFLUENCE, PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG TERMS. SHOULD WE DECIDE TO WITHDRAW INCREMENTALLY
OUR SECURITY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, THE IMET AND DEMINING
PROGRAM SHOULD BE AMONG OUR FINAL ENGAGEMENT
INITIATIVES. MOREOVER, LITTLE BENEFIT HAS RESULTED FROM
RECENT GENERAL OFFICER VISITS BY MEMBERS OF OUR ARMED
FORCES. IN PARALLEL WITH OUR REGIONAL POLITICAL
STRATEGY, WE SHOULD ENCOURAGE CIVILIAN DEFENSE OFFICIALS
AND SENIOR MILITARY OFFICERS FROM OUR CLOSEST REGIONAL
ALLIES WITHIN SADC TO PERSONALLY ADDRESS THE SECURITY
CONCERNS OF THE REGION TO ZIMBABWE’S SENIOR CIVILIAN AND
MILITARY LEADERSHIP.
¶22. (C) VIEW ZIMBABWE AS A REGIONAL ISSUE. WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RAISE THROUGH DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS THE ISSUE
OF VIOLENCE AND GOOD GOVERNANCE WITH THE SADC
GOVERNMENTS, AND URGE THEM TO EXERT GREATER PRESSURE ON
MUGABE TO ALTER HIS RENEGADE POLICIES. THIS DIALOGUE IN
PARTICULAR SHOULD BE GEARED TO GETTING SOUTH AFRICA OFF
THE FENCE. WE SHOULD ENGAGE NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OBASANJO
— ONE OF THE FEW HEADS OF STATE WITH REAL INFLUENCE ON
MUGABE — TO PRESS MUGABE ON HONORING THE DEMOCRATIC
PROCESS AND THE RULE OF LAW. MUGABE MAY ALSO RESPOND TO
PRIVATE URGINGS FROM UN SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANAN, A
FELLOW AFRICAN.
¶23. (C) ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS ON FIRM GROUND, THE UNITED
NATIONS PROVIDES ANOTHER PLATFORM FROM WHICH TO SEEK
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 06 OF 07 260908Z
BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION FROM MUGABE. THE UN IS THE MOST
VISIBLE INSTITUTION IN WHICH TO CONDEMN HUMAN RIGHTS AND
RULE OF LAW ABUSES. WE MIGHT SUGGEST THE UN INVESTIGATE
WHO ARE THE BENEFICIARIES OF THE FAST TRACK LAND
RESETTLEMENT PROCESS, IF NECESSARY USING THE RUSE OF “SO
WE CAN ATTRACT MONEY FROM THE DONORS.” UN COMMISSIONER
FOR HUMAN RIGHTS MARY ROBINSON IS DIALOGUING WITH
ZIMBABWE’S HUMAN RIGHTS FORUM, AN INITIATIVE THAT MERITS
OUR FULL SUPPORT. IN ADDITION, WE COULD ASK THE UN OR
THE SECURITY COUNCIL TO CONDEMN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RULE OF LAW AND IMPOSE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ON ZIMBABWEAN
OFFICIALS. SIMPLY CALLING FOR A UN SESSION TO EXAMINE
THE ZIMBABWE PROBLEM WOULD EXERT SOME PRESSURE ON
MUGABE.
¶24. (C) THE COMMONWEALTH HAS A ROLE TO PLAY IN HOLDING
ZIMBABWE TO CERTAIN STANDARDS OF BEHAVIOR. MUGABE
RECENTLY APPOINTED FOUR JUDGES WHO, THOUGH COMPETENT
PROFESSIONALS ARE CLOSELY IDENTIFIED WITH AND PERSONALLY
OWING TO ZANU-PF. MEMBERS OF THE BENCH WHO VALUE THEIR
PRESTIGE COME UNDER SCRUTINY BY THEIR RESPECTED
COMMONWEALTH PEERS AND WOULD NOT WANT TO RISK OPPROBRIUM
FROM THIS CLUB. WE SHOULD SUPPORT AND ENCOURAGE
COMMONWEALTH INVOLVEMENT IN THIS REGARD.
¶25. (C) SUPPORT THE JUDICIARY. THE CANADIAN
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCY HAS TAKEN THE LEAD IN
PROVIDING ASSISTANCE FOR ZIMBABWE’S EMBATTLED JUDICIARY.
USAID’S OFFICE OF TRANSITION INITIATIVES HAS ASSISTED IN
COURT CHALLENGES TO ELECTION RESULTS ACHIEVED THROUGH
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. SEEKING REMEDIES IN THE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00524 06 OF 07 260908Z
COURTS IS ONE OF THE FEW TOOLS AVAILABLE TO CIVIL
SOCIETY AND THE OPPOSITION TO HIT BACK. WHILE THE
GOVERNMENT HAS CHOSEN TO IGNORE COURT RULINGS WITH
IMPUNITY, THE INTERNATIONAL SPOTLIGHT SHOULD GROW
BRIGHTER EACH TIME A RULING IS IGNORED. ESF RESOURCES,
WHICH WE HAVE REQUESTED SEPTEL, SHOULD BE ALLOCATED FOR
THIS PURPOSE.
¶26. (C) CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM. CIVIL SOCIETY BELIEVES
A NEW CONSTITUTION IS THE ONLY WAY TO GUARANTEE FAIR
COMPETITIVE POLITICS, SAFEGUARD DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS,
BALANCE POWER BETWEEN THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT,
AND ENSURE THE PARTICIPATION OF CITIZENS IN DECISION
MAKING. AGREEMENT ON A NEW CONSTITUTION, TO REPLACE
BEFORE THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THE LANCASTER
HOUSE DOCUMENT SIGNED AT INDEPENDENCE, IS SEEN AS
CRUCIAL TO ENSURING A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR THE
OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES. WE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY AND OTHER CIVIL SOCIETY
GROUPS IN THEIR EFFORT TO ORGANIZE A NATIONAL
STAKEHOLDERS CONFERENCE THIS YEAR FOCUSED ON DRAFTING A
NEW CONSTITUTION, AND BE PREPARED TO ASSIST IN RELATED
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTO5181
PAGE 01 HARARE 00524 07 OF 07 260908Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
——————BBDBA4 260908Z /38
R 260903Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8094
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 07 HARARE 000524
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR A/A/AID D. PRESSLEY, A/AA/AFR V. DICKSON-
HORTON, AND AFR/SA C. PALMA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON PINR ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 00524 07 OF 07 260908Z
SUBJECT: DEALING WITH ROBERT MUGABE, THE CONSUMMATE
SURVIVOR
FOLLOW-ON EFFORTS. WE HAVE REQUESTED ESF FOR THIS
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT ACTIVITY.
¶27. (C) RADIO FREE ZIMBABWE. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT
AMONG MEMBERS OF CIVIL SOCIETY HERE THAT GOVERNMENT
CONTROL OF THE AIRWAVES IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONSTRAINT
TO BROAD-BASED DEMOCRACY. THAT CONTROL IS BEING
CHALLENGED IN COURT, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT EVEN IF
IT LOSES THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT ALLOW ALTERNATIVE RADIO
TO HAPPEN BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. WHILE THERE
ARE INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS, MOST OF ZIMBABWE’S
POPULATION DOES NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THEM OR CANNOT AFFORD
THEM. WE MAY WANT TO EXPLORE INTEREST WITHIN THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR FUNDING A RADIO OPERATION
THAT WOULD CONTINUOUSLY BROADCAST FACTUAL NEWS, DEBATE
AND ALTERNATIVE VIEWS IN THE LOCAL LANGUAGES.
———————-
DON’T LEAVE THEM ALONE
———————-
¶28. (C) ZIMBABWE MATTERS, AND IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE
TRY TO PRESERVE THE CORNERSTONES OF ITS SOCIETY, WHICH
INCLUDE A FUNCTIONING PRO-CAPITALIST ECONOMY SUPPORTED
BY DECENT INFRASTRUCTURE, AN INDEPENDENT AND WELL-
RESPECTED JUDICIARY, AND THE BEST EDUCATED WORK FORCE IN
AFRICA. ALTHOUGH OUR LEVERAGE TO INFLUENCE EVENTS HERE
IS CONSTRAINED, WE HAVE DESCRIBED A NUMBER OF TIMELY AND
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00524 07 OF 07 260908Z
CREATIVE STEPS THAT WILL SUPPORT THE FORCES OF GOOD
GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY, WHOSE VOICES ARE
INCREASINGLY MUFFLED, AND STRENGTHEN DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS. IT IS CRUCIAL THAT WE ACT QUICKLY, AS THE
CONSEQUENCES OF ZIMBABWE’S CONTINUED ECONOMIC DECLINE
AND ABUSE OF THE RULE OF LAW COULD BE DEVASTATING, BOTH
FOR THIS “JEWEL OF AFRICA,” AS JULIUS NYERERE CALLED IT,
AND THE SURROUNDING REGION.
IRVING
CONFIDENTIAL
>
(25 VIEWS)
