Movement for Democratic Change Bulawayo legislator David Coltart said former Finance Minister Simba Makoni might emerge as the compromise candidate to succeed President Robert Mugabe because of the infighting within the party.
He said Vice-President Joice Mujuru had not proven herself a worthy frontrunner while Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa had failed to garner popular support with his proxies Jonathan Moyo and Daniel Shumba.
Coltart said a Makoni presidency might undertake reforms that would sweep the ZANU-PF system away even though Makoni himself might not survive a tumultuous transformation.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 06HARARE1429, COLTART DISCUSSES OPPOSITION STRATEGY AMIDST
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO3476
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #1429/01 3350749
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 010749Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0884
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1393
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1247
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1397
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0131
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0658
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1023
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1451
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 3836
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1220
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1873
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUFGNOA/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1613
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001429
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
SUBJECT: COLTART DISCUSSES OPPOSITION STRATEGY AMIDST
ZANU-PF PANIC
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d
——-
Summary
——-
¶1. (C) Pro-Senate MDC MP David Coltart on November 29 told
the Ambassador that ZANU-PF parliamentarians were in a state
of panic as public corruption allegations had become weapons
in the ongoing succession battle. The MP agreed with the
Ambassador that the GOZ had been weakened as a result of the
battle and the MDC needed to take advantage. To that end,
Coltart said reconciliation talks between the two MDC
factions were progressing and that the chances of forming a
coalition ahead of the next planned elections were good. End
Summary.
————————-
ZANU-PF Turning On Itself
————————-
¶2. (C) The silver lining to the MDC split, Coltart told the
Ambassador, was that it created a sense of security within
the ruling party, which allowed the underlying succession
tensions to boil to the surface. These tensions were clearly
visible in Parliament, where Coltart said the majority party
was in disarray. Allegations of high-level corruption in the
national bus company ZUPCO, the parastatal steel firm ZISCO,
and most recently the import of substandard fertilizer had
become the new tools of the succession battle, instilling
panic across the ruling party’s ranks. Coltart opined that
the ongoing revelations of ministerial-level graft indicated
that the intra-ZANU-PF battles were still raging.
¶3. (C) Amidst this ruling party infighting, Coltart said
that former-Finance Minister Simba Makoni might emerge as a
compromise succession candidate. Vice President Joyce Mujuru
had not proven herself a worthy frontrunner and Rural Housing
Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa had failed to garner popular
support with his proxies Jonathan Moyo and Daniel Shumba.
Drawing parallels to the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev,
Coltart speculated that a Makoni presidency might undertake
reforms that would sweep the ZANU-PF system away, even though
Makoni himself might not survive a tumultuous transformation.
—————————-
Opposition Adapting Strategy
—————————-
¶4. (C) Coltart agreed with the Ambassador’s suggestion that
the democratic opposition rethink its strategies in light of
the heated ZANU-PF succession race. Civil disobedience was
still important to maintain pressure on the regime, but both
factions of the opposition needed to think about the end game
and plan for a ZANU-PF successor who will inevitably need to
reach out to the West for financial support to revive the
economy. The Ambassador asked whether constitutional reform
was really essential or whether that what matter was who
holds power. Coltart said he still favored first enacting a
new constitution and then conducting
internationally-supervised, free and fair elections, but
conceded the ultimate goal was to unseat ZANU-PF in any way
possible.
¶5. (C) Agreeing with the Ambassador’s suggestion that
ZANU-PF relished a divided opposition, Coltart said that
reconciliation talks between the two MDC factions were
progressing. The two sides have already agreed to a code of
HARARE 00001429 002 OF 002
conduct and the negotiating teams met as recently as the past
weekend. Coltart anticipated that a reconciliation
commission likely would be established in January to address
intra-opposition violence conducted by all sides. The
commission would then pave the way for an opposition
coalition going into the next national election, anticipated
in 2008. Under this plan, the two factions would agree to an
electoral team and to split ministerial posts.
——-
Comment
——-
¶6. (C) As Coltart notes, the recent spate of corruption
allegations indicates that ZANU-PF is perhaps even more
factionalized than the opposition. Even more encouraging is
the role that the parliamentary committees, supported by the
USG-funded SUNY program, are having in exposing this graft;
for instance, a ruling party committee chairman recently
called for the impeachment of Industry Minister Obert Mpofu
for giving false testimony on the status of ZISCO and Speaker
of Parliament John Nkomo on November 30 allowed the
investigation to go forward. This succession-related carnage
within ZANU-PF creates real openings for the opposition,
which must now play its cards carefully lest a premature move
prompt the ruling party to circle the wagons and once again
focus its ire on regime opponents.
DELL
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