Zimbabwe independent election body says there is no way Chamisa could have won the elections


The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, which says it is Zimbabwe’s largest local independent election observer group, says there is no way Movement for Democratic Change Alliance leader Nelson Chamisa could have won the just ended presidential election.

It said at most he could have polled 47.8 percent of the vote and at least 43.8 percent.

His opponent Emmerson Mnangagwa of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front could at most have won up to 52.7 percent or at least 48.7 percent which meant he would have beaten Chamisa even in the worst case scenario.

ZESN which gave Chamisa 45.8 percent and Mnangagwa 50.7 percent said its estimates tallied well with those of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission which gave Chamisa 44.3 percent and Mnangagwa 50.8 percent.

The election body which deployed 6 500 observers, says it reached its estimates based on the Sample-Based Observation method which involved 750 polling stations.

It had received data from all its sample stations by 12 noon on 31 July.

“SBOs have contributed to the systematic election observation efforts around the world and in 12 countries in Africa such as Cote d’Ivoire (2016), Malawi (2009 and 2014), Zambia (2008, 2011, 2015 and 2016), Ghana (2008, 2012 and 2016), Uganda (2011), and Nigeria (2011, 2012 and 2015),” ZESN said.

“In all cases the SBO accurately projected the vote tabulation outcomes including presidential results.”

Chamisa has disputed results released by the electoral commission insisting he won the election but the ZEC rigged the results.

ZESN also dismissed reports that have been circulating on the social media and also touted by the Alliance that V11 forms which show results at each polling station could not be obtained from 21 percent of the polling stations.

“At 98% of polling stations all polling agents present were given an official copy of the V11 results form and/or the official results were immediately posted,” ZESN said.

“At only 2% of the polling station(s) were official copies of the V11 results form not provided to all polling agents and the official results not immediately posted.”

ZESN said: “ZEC’s announced official results are consistent with the SBO projections.

“The percent vote for each candidate as officially announced by ZEC fall within the SBO estimated ranges.

“Because the SBO estimated range for the leading candidate falls above and below 50%, the SBO cannot definitely confirm whether or not there should have been a runoff,” it says.

Below is the ZESN full report:

ZESN’s-Presidential-Results-Projection-from-Sample-Based-Observation 2018


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Charles Rukuni
The Insider is a political and business bulletin about Zimbabwe, edited by Charles Rukuni. Founded in 1990, it was a printed 12-page subscription only newsletter until 2003 when Zimbabwe's hyper-inflation made it impossible to continue printing.


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