“As the government inches ever closer to the bottom of its coffers, the security forces will inevitably suffer, even if the government prioritizes their salaries over others.
“Already, the government has had to delay salary disbursements to its armed forces, staggering them with payments to other agencies to keep as many people as possible paid within the ever-shrinking confines of the budget.
“Interruptions in payment could provoke factions of the military to turn against the administration, and the president in particular. This scenario could become more likely, depending on who emerges as Mugabe's successor.”
Stratfor says the military's allegiances are split between Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mugabe’s wife, Grace.
It says Mnangagwa is said to enjoy support among the older and more seasoned members of Zimbabwe's security organisations, while the younger generations and the government's civilian sectors favour the First Lady.
“Regardless, it is not fully clear at this point whether the two are actively vying for influence or whether they are merely trying to ensure a stable transition,” Stratfor says.
“The way in which the ruling party's factions jockey for the presidency in the months ahead could prove critical in setting Zimbabwe's future course.
“If Grace Mugabe's faction wrests power from Mnangagwa, who regards the presidency as his for the taking, it will increase tension in the party and give rise to internal struggles.
“On the other hand, if Mnangagwa secures the post of president, then the transition will be smoother. Regardless, Zimbabwe's financial troubles are accelerating the succession process.”
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