The upcoming elections, due by August 2018, are going to be a vital yardstick to assess Zimbabwe’s democratisation processes and progress.
Mnangagwa has publicly invited the EU and AU to send observation teams, commenting he also ‘is disposed’ to consider an approach from the Commonwealth.
In normal circumstances, Commonwealth observation teams are only dispatched at the member country’s express request. So there clearly needs to be some protocol fudges here, since Zimbabwe is not yet a member.
There are issues around cost – the 2002 team was 45-strong – but there is a strong likelihood that this will be separately met by the British and Australians.
Furthermore, as elections are generally deemed to have been ‘stolen’ months, if not years, before the election, a Commonwealth election observation team would need to be on the ground well in advance of the actual polling date.
There remain substantial questions around whether these will indeed be free and fair elections:
· there are outstanding issues around the appointment of the Chief Election officer;
· debates around whether reforms to the Electoral Act will be implemented in line with the 2013 Constitution;
· concerns over management of data collected by the Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) process;
· anxieties whether there are sufficiently robust IT management systems on collection and data storage, accessibility and security of information;
· enduring issues around freedom of the media (especially local radio) and coverage of all political parties;
· and whether or not the electoral campaign is marred, as before, by violence and intimidation.
Will Zimbabwe then achieve the perceived ‘low-hanging fruit’ of successful re-engagement with the Commonwealth sufficiently quickly to satisfy the military mind-set?
If the Commonwealth is to retain its credibility and not merely reach comfortable accommodation with ZANU-PF’s determined maintenance of power, the forthcoming elections cannot be taken as a token manifestation of adherence to the democratic values embedded in the Harare Declaration of 1991 and the Commonwealth Charter.
A Commonwealth judgement on how free and how fair is going to be key to Zimbabwe’s reengagement.
By Sue Onslow. This article was first published on the LSE blog.
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