Movement for Democratic Change leader told a Visiting United States official that President Robert Mugabe was able to hang on to power because of hardliners like Emmerson Mnangagwa whom he described as the heir apparent.
Tsvangirai had been asked by Malik Chaka why no one in the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front had been willing to confront Mugabe about the damaging consequences of his policies.
The MDC leader said there were basically two groups within ZANU-PF, the hardliners and the reformers, and Mugabe believed he could control the destiny of Zimbabwe using the hardliners, the most prominent of which was Emmerson Mnangagwa.
He said there were many in the ruling party who were unhappy with the direction of the country but they felt vulnerable because Mugabe had evolved from a quasi democrat to a benign dictator and to a brutal dictator.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE1307, TSVANGIRAI DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE’S CHALLENGES WITH
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001307
SIPDIS
NSC FOR AF SENIOR DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2012
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE’S CHALLENGES WITH
STAFFDEL
REF: A) HARARE 1219 B) HARARE 1151
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.
Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D).
Summary
——-
¶1. (C) MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai told a visiting staffdel
that the MDC was pursuing its legal challenge of the election
result, had embarked on a campaign to sensitize African
governments to the situation in Zimbabwe, and welcomed
dialogue with ZANU-PF, so long as the ruling party did not
insist on preconditions. He gave the impression that
organized mass action remained likely but was not imminent.
The MDC leader advocated the formation of a bipartisan
national committee, perhaps based in Parliament, to ensure
fair distribution of food assistance. His delegation
cautioned the West to handle the NEPAD/Zimbabwe linkage very
carefully — some in the region believe Mbeki’s advocacy of
this initiative is a sign that he has sold out to the West.
Excluding Zimbabwe from NEPAD, therefore, could ironically
strengthen Mugabe’s hand with key players on the continent.
End Summary.
¶2. (U) HIRC staff members Malik Chaka and Pearl Alice Marsh,
accompanied by the Ambassador and political section chief,
met on May 29 with Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Tsvangirai was joined by MDC
Members of Parliament Priscilla Misihairabwi and Trudy
Stevenson, and special advisor Gandi Mudzingwa.
MDC’s Next steps
—————-
¶3. (C) Tsvangirai noted that the staffdel was visiting
Zimbabwe at a time of deepening political, social, and
economic crisis. The current regime’s lack of political
legitimacy was exacerbating the country’s other difficulties,
including food shortages, a worsening economy, and a
collapsing health sector. The MDC, he continued, has decided
to proceed along several fronts. First, the party had filed
a legal challenge of the election results, although it
recognized that the judiciary has been subverted. Second, it
had embarked on an active diplomatic campaign to sensitize
African governments to the deteriorating situation in
Zimbabwe. Third, the party had welcomed the initiative by
Presidents Mbeki and Obasanjo to bring the MDC and ZANU-PF
together in a formal dialogue. Tsvangirai expressed his view
that dialogue is the best option for finding a constructive
way forward, but said the ruling party was now trying to
impose all sorts of preconditions for resumption of the
talks, long after the agenda had been agreed on. Without
elaborating, he noted that Nigerian Foreign Minister Lamido
was in town trying to reconvene this process (Note:
Tsvangirai’s advisor Gandi Mudzingwa later told us that
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Lamido had advised the MDC he was working to convince Mugabe
to rejoin the talks. End Note.)
¶4. (C) The MDC leader said there has been significant
pressure on the party leadership to craft a firm response to
the stolen election, as Zimbabweans are angry and do not
accept the status quo. The party has had to work very hard
to restrain the public reaction, as the GOZ response to
demonstrations would certainly be brutal and bloody.
Tsvangirai mentioned three crises that need to be addressed
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urgently. First, the food shortage could lead to a
“catastrophic situation,” and a bipartisan national committee
ought to be established to devise an effective solution. In
addition, the rapid shutting down of companies was causing a
commensurate — and alarming — rise in unemployment and
poverty rates, and an effective policy must be implemented on
the AIDS pandemic, a national disaster that goverment had not
demonstrated the political will to address.
MDC’s Africa diplomacy
———————-
¶5. (C) Noting the MDC’s attempts to build African support,
Marsh asked whether the West had misplayed its hand by too
strongly criticizing Mugabe and his policies in advance of
the election. Not at all, Tsvangirai replied. Africa, he
said, must live up to international human rights norms, and
cannot continue to insist that it be judged by lower
standards if it expects the world’s respect. Asked the MDC’s
objectives in lobbying African nations, Tsvangirai said the
party’s approach was to recognize the injustices of the
colonial past and the contributions made by the liberation
generation. At the same time, it is pointing out that,
instead of contributing to Zimbabwe’s prosperity, this
country’s liberation generation is employing organized
violence to suppress the population. Africa, he said, is at
a stage where it must deal with both sides of the political
divide, and that is how tolerance and democratic values are
nurtured. The MDC wants an election rerun “at some point,”
but wants to secure agreement on a transitional mechanism in
the meantime.
Transitional mechanism
———————-
¶6. (C) Chaka inquired what a transitional mechanism would
look like, and wondered how the MDC would maintain its
independence while participating in such an arrangement. The
MDC, Tsvangirai replied, would not follow (former ZAPU
leader) Joshua Nkomo’s example and allow itself to be
co-opted. The transitional mechanism (which might include a
50-50 sharing of Cabinet posts) should be tasked with laying
the groundwork for a new election, and should oversee
implementation of confidence-building measures such as
disbanding of the militias and de-politicization of the
police.
Internal ZANU-PF dynamics
————————-
¶7. (C) Chaka expressed surprise that no one in ZANU-PF had
been willing to confront Mugabe about the damaging
consequences of his policies. There are two primary groups
in the ruling party, Tsvangirai replied, the hardliners and
the reformers, and Mugabe believes he can control the destiny
of Zimbabwe using the hardliners, the most prominent of whom
is Speaker of Parliament and heir apparent Emmerson
Mnangagwa. There are many in the ruling party who are
unhappy with the direction of the country, but they feel
vulnerable because Mugabe has, over the years, evolved from a
quasi-democrat to benign dictator to brutal dictator.
Food crisis
———–
¶8. (C) Marsh asked what kind of national body Tsvangirai
envisioned for dealing with the looming food shortages. War
veterans nationwide, he replied, are taking over food
distribution efforts and are denying MDC supporters access.
A bipartisan committee, perhaps based in Parliament, would
ensure that food is distributed to all who need it,
regardless of political affiliation. The Ambassador noted
that he had urged the United Nations to establish an
independent mechanism to monitor food deliveries, and that we
and other donors would likely support such a body. He
informed Tsvangirai that the USG would be announcing that it
had been forced to divert to Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique
10,000 metric tons of yellow maize intended for Zimbabwe
because the GOZ had refused to grant an exemption to its own
restrictions on grain with Genetically Modified Organisms
(GMO).
Mass action
———–
¶9. (C) Chaka said he had read recent press reports quoting
Tsvangirai’s vows to organize mass action. What precisely
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does the MDC leader mean by mass action, and are there large
numbers of Zimbabweans prepared to participate in it,
particularly in light of the failed stayaway shortly after
the election? That stayaway had failed, Tsvangirai said,
because it was organized by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade
Unions as a protest of labor conditions, not a demonstration
of unhappiness with the country’s broader political crisis.
There is no question of numbers or capacity to organize, as
mass action will happen. People’s anger is deep, and they
are not prepared to countenance another six years of rule by
President Mugabe. The MDC, however, has not yet decided what
form it will take.
NEPAD and the West’s approach
—————————–
¶10. (C) Marsh asked what the West could do to help
extricate Zimbabwe from its current plight. The West’s
approach has been constructive, Tsvangirai said, as the
efforts to isolate the GOZ leadership are having an effect,
if not on Mugabe at least on those around him. He urged the
international community to continue to pressure and isolate
the Zimbabwean president, and to try to find a dignified exit
for him. MP Trudy Stevenson added that it would be useful if
the G-8 makes it clear at the upcoming summit that the
continent’s approach to Zimbabwe will affect the success of
NEPAD. Yes, Tsvangirai agreed, there is no way that Zimbabwe
can be walled off from the benefits of NEPAD, as if it’s an
island. If they are to have any credibility, African
governments must be able to demonstrate that they can police
themselves effectively. MP Priscilla Misihairabwi warned
that the West must be very careful in how it handles the
NEPAD/Zimbabwe linkage. Some in the region, she said, are
deeply suspicious of NEPAD and believe the initiative
indicates Mbeki has sold out to the West, so excluding
Zimbabwe could very well strengthen Mugabe’s hand in his
attempts to portray himself as the preeminent defender of the
continent’s interests. The Ambassador pointed out that,
although he expected positive statements to be made about
NEPAD at the G-8 meeting, no checks would be written, and
there will be plenty of opportunities to shape NEPAD down the
road.
Continuing Harassment
———————
¶11. (C) The Ambassador asked Tsvangirai to comment on press
reports that police had raided his rural home the night of
May 26. According to the MDC leader, a group of heavily
armed police had entered his home without a warrant in
Buhera, Manicaland province, saying they were searching for
arms of war. They beat up one of the home’s caretakers and
proceeded to arrest 13 MDC supporters in the vicinity, even
though they had not committed any apparent crime. Tsvangirai
expressed relief that his mother, who lives in the house, had
been elsewhere at the time.
Comment
——-
¶12. (C) Tsvangirai was upbeat but did not present a
particularly focused picture of his party’s plans in the
near-term. In fact, he concentrated more on describing the
range of challenges facing Zimbabwe than on proposing
achievable cures. Such vagueness likely derives from the
reality that there is not agreement among senior members of
the party about the way forward. Tsvangirai’s failure in his
introductory remarks to mention mass action likely indicates
that such a step has been put on the back burner for now.
SULLIVAN
(54 VIEWS)
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