A researcher with the Institute of Security Studies said Emmerson Mnangagwa had a better chance of succeeding President Robert Mugabe than Joice Mujuru because Mugabe could never trust Mujuru as she was viewed as too willing to work with the Movement for Democratic Change.
The researcher, Takawira Musavengana, said Mujuru was “too clean” to be trusted not to try to bring Mugabe to justice.
It is not certain how many people would agree with Musavengana on the aspect that Mujuru is “too clean” because Mugabe is believed to have dossiers on the corrupt activities of all his lieutenants.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09PRETORIA1859, DIPLOMATS STILL WAITING TO SEE CHANGE IN SAG’S
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO3400
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #1859/01 2541227
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 111227Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9574
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 7125
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 1216
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 9490
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001859
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019
SUBJECT: DIPLOMATS STILL WAITING TO SEE CHANGE IN SAG’S
ZIMBABWE POLICY
PRETORIA 00001859 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Madeline Seidenstricker. Rea
sons 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On 8 September, Institute for Security
Studies (ISS) Senior Researcher Takawira Musavengana spoke at
a roundtable with western diplomats, admonishing diplomats
for believing that Zimbabwe would be discussed during the 7-8
September SADC summit, downplayed Zuma’s willingness to take
on Mugabe, saying interested parties see what they want to
see, and outlined a number of upcoming events over the next
several months that could significantly affect the state of
the GNU. Nevertheless, South Africa may have relinquished
the SADC chairmanship to Congo, but still sits on the SADC
troika, along with Mozambique and Angola, which is now
charged with finding a solution or calling for an
extraordinary summit, giving many hope yet that South Africa
will still try to work behind the scenes for a lasting
solution. END SUMMARY.
————————
SADC SUMMIT: NO SURPRISE
————————
¶2. (C) On 8 September, ISS Senior Researcher Takawira
Musavengana, a Zimbabwean national who worked for SADC’s
Parliamentary Forum for a number of years before joining ISS,
shared his opinions about South Africa’s and SADC’s views of
the current state of Zimbabwean politics. Numerous diplomats
from like-minded countries expressed disappointment that
Zimbabwe was not on SADC’s agenda 7-8 September, adding that
South Africa’s Department of International Relations (DICO)
had assured them otherwise. Musavengana replied, “I’m
shocked you’re shocked,” and went on to rhetorically ask what
contentious issue a SADC summit has ever addressed.
Musavengana called SADC’s avoidance of the issue a “strategic
retreat” and was rather pessimistic about SADC’s future
interventions as well. He noted that current SADC Chair
President Kabila’s close relationship to Mugabe — he said
rumors have been circulating that Mugabe’s close personal
security is provided by the Congolese — is likely to result
in a softened stance. He also believes that if an
extraordinary summit is held on Zimbabwe sometime in the next
several months that it will be poorly attended as Namibia,
Mozambique, and Botswana leaders are focused right now on
upcoming elections.
¶3. (C) Nevertheless, Musavengana noted that there have been
some symbolic changes, including SADC’s official recognition
of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai who was introduced
immediately after President Mugabe. He also believes that
even after the passing of former Zambian President Mwanawasa,
there remain deep divisions within SADC over Zimbabwe.
“You’re never going to hear someone refute that there is a
crisis in Zimbabwe as Mbeki did,” he said. He also told
diplomats that if he learned anything from working at SADC,
it is that there is as much to be learned by what SADC
members states do not say as much as what they do say,
specifically highlighting Tanzania which has remained silent
on the issue.
—————————————–
PRETORIA’S CHANGE IN ATTITUDE, NOT POLICY
—————————————–
¶4. (C) Musavengana spoke at length about Pretoria’s
relationship with Harare, emphasizing that Zuma and his
entourage desperately want to distinguish themselves from
Mbeki on every issue, not just Zimbabwe. So far, he believes
that Zuma has done a good job of appearing to do more on
Qthat Zuma has done a good job of appearing to do more on
Zimbabwe, adding that Zuma gives Tsvangirai an audience and
tells him how brave he is, but that South Africa’s position
on Zimbabwe has not fundamentally changed. Zuma will continue
Mbeki’s policy of “quiet diplomacy,” he said, noting that
Zuma, like other leaders in SADC, has been very diplomatic
when speaking about Harare publicly. The ANC also continues
to be more critical of Mugabe publicly than Zuma (as was the
case during Mbeki’s tenure as well), but behind closed doors
Musavengana said many in the ANC still believe that Zimbabwe
is the victim of a neocolonial conspiracy, with members of
the ANC and other liberation movements on the continent
wondering, “If ZANU-PF falls, which liberation movement is
next?” South Africa, as a result, continues to be most
concerned with internal ZANU-PF succession.
¶5. (C) Zuma and other officials are also acutely aware of the
PRETORIA 00001859 002.2 OF 003
need to resolve the Zimbabwean crisis because of the
spillover effect in South Africa. High unemployment rates
coupled with the casualization of labor (i.e., Zimbabweans
willingness to work for less than South African nationals)
are raising discontent among the masses and risking another
xenophobic outbreak. (NOTE: None of the diplomats present
could name who Zuma listens to when he needs advice on
Zimbabwe; DICO officials continue to tell diplomats that
Mbeki is still SADC’s official mediator, though there is no
evidence Mbeki remains involved. END NOTE)
——————————-
CHALLENGES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS
——————————-
¶6. (C) Musavengana listed a number of upcoming milestones
over the next six months that could have a significant impact
on the GNU:
— The continual lack of progress over the Constitution: MPs
continue to bicker over the mechanics of the process, with
the Speaker of Parliament, Clerk of Parliament, and Minister
of Parliament all fighting over who is in charge of process.
He also noted that there is severe infighting within parties
over who will get per diems during the process and between
parties over who will chair which committees.
— Uncertainty over internal ZANU-PF succession: Though there
is a Mugabe for life campaign going on within some ZANU-PF
circles, he believes that Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa
will prevail since Mugabe could never trust Vice-President
Joyce Mujuru, who is viewed as too willing to work with the
MDC and “too clean” to be trusted not to try to bring Mugabe
to justice.
— Questions over the viability of MDC as a grassroots
organization and MDC-M: Harvest House, Musavengana said, is
empty, with all senior party officials now working for the
government. As a result, he believes the party is “adrift
without leadership or a long-term strategy,” with MDC
officials, namely Tsvangirai, forgetting that the GNU was
supposed to be a temporary arrangement. (NOTE: As an aside,
Musavengana praised Tendai Biti’s intelligence, but also
cautioned that he would fail, just like Welshman Ncube, if he
tried to take the MDC presidency from Tsvangirai. Biti’s
downfall, he said, is that he is extremely impatient and
condescending to those he thinks are intellectually inferior
to him. END NOTE) He also questioned the future of MDC-M,
noting that the top officials had all recently lost
by-elections.
— Outstanding Parliamentary vacancies, which could affect
balance of power: According to Musavengana, any seats left
open after 15 September will be able to be contested by all
parties.
— Court petition by independent MP Jonathan Moyo over the
validity of the election of Speaker of the National Assembly
Lovemore Moyo: Musavengana believes the High Court is likely
to rule in Jonathan Moyo’s favor and that the MDC is unlikely
to win the speakership again.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶7. (C) Within diplomatic and think-tank circles, there were
high hopes that Zimbabwe would be discussed at the SADC
summit. Zuma’s recent granting of a one-on-one meeting with
Prime Minister Tsvangirai so he could spell out his concerns,
coupled with his comments in Harare last month that the
promotion of democracy, respect for human rights, and
improvement of governance are vital to Africa’s success, led
many to believe that Zuma was going to reverse Mbeki’s quiet
Qmany to believe that Zuma was going to reverse Mbeki’s quiet
diplomacy approach and be more vocal and critical of
President Mugabe and ZANU-PF’s intransigence when it comes to
fully implementing the Global Political Agreement. Instead,
at the end of the summit, both Zuma and Deputy President
Motlanthe (also ANC President and Deputy President) spoke
with one voice — that of SADC — praising all parties for
the progress done thus far and echoing calls for the
immediate removal of sanctions. South Africa has relinquished
the SADC chairmanship to Congo, but still sits on the troika,
along with Mozambique and Angola, which is now charged with
finding a solution or calling for an extraordinary summit,
PRETORIA 00001859 003.4 OF 003
giving many hope yet that South Africa will still try to work
behind the scenes for a lasting solution.
GIPS
(29 VIEWS)
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