Masvingo legislator Walter Mzembi told United States embassy officials, a month after the signing of the Global Political Agreement, that central bank governor Gideon Gono was running scared because he wanted a position in government, probably as finance minister, but was being left out of the inclusive government.
Mzembi said the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front was divided over whether to go ahead with the power-sharing deal or not with most of the resistance coming from those close to President Robert Mugabe, particularly the service chiefs.
Mzembi said Mugabe had told ZANU-PF insiders that they would not be in a position of negotiating with the Movement for Democratic Change if they had worked harder in the March elections.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08HARARE924, ZANU-PF INSIDER’S VIEW OF THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
|
Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO6331
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0924/01 2891525
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151525Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3564
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2355
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2473
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0983
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1751
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2106
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2527
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4959
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1622
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000924
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF INSIDER’S VIEW OF THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Classified By: Charge d’Affaires, a.i. Katherine Dhanani for reason 1.4
(d)
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (C) ZANU-PF deputy minister of water resources Walter
Mzembi discussed Zimbabwe’s current political situation with
polecon chief on October 15. While Mzembi broke no new
ground, he confirmed that ZANU-PF is split as to whether to
go forward with an agreement with MDC. President Robert
Mugabe supports an agreement, but he and others are concerned
that too much MDC power could result in investigations and
prosecutions of corrupt ZANU-PF officials. Mugabe is the
glue holding the party together and there is likely to be
little opposition to him from within the party in the short
term for fear of the party splitting apart. The most
progressive institution in the near term is likely to be
Parliament where cross-party alliances will try to push the
government forward. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) Mzembi is a Member of Parliament (MP) from Masvingo
Province. He is considered a “young Turk” and as an
agribusinessman has advocated, from within ZANU-PF, for a
more free market economy. A member of the party Central
Committee, Mzembi is one of the few young ZANU-PF members
close to Mugabe, who relies on Mzembi as a source of
information about the situation in Zimbabwe. Mzembi has been
a U.S. Embassy interlocutor over the last several years. He
told us he was able to meet with us because he sells his
meetings with westerners to Mugabe as an opportunity to learn
what we are thinking.
—————————-
ZANU-PF Drags Feet on a Deal
—————————-
¶3. (C) Mzembi said the party was divided on whether to go
ahead with a power-sharing deal. Resistance came mainly from
those close to Mugabe, particularly the service chiefs. He
also thought that Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono was
“running scared.” He wanted a position in government,
probably as finance minister, but saw himself being left out
of an inclusive government.
¶4. (C) On October 13, Mzembi said he attended a meeting with
Mugabe and party insiders, including Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Mugabe told the group they would not be in the position of
negotiating with the MDC had ZANU-PF members worked harder in
the March elections. Nevertheless, he now favored concluding
the agreement. According to Mzembi, discussion focused on
the finance ministry. Mugabe was inclined to let it go.
Opposition to this was based on the fact that MDC leadership
of finance–and also home affairs–would facilitate
investigation and prosecution of high level ZANU-PF
officials; some of those at the meeting wanted guarantees
they would be left alone.
¶5. (C) Mzembi said he himself favored reaching an agreement.
He thought the MDC, particularly Tendai Biti, had been too
public in its criticism of ZANU-PF and in announcing where it
wanted to take the country. He implied many in the ruling
party were paranoid about what could happen to them, and
stated that a gentler, more conciliatory approach would be
more productive. Mzembi admitted he admired the MDC for its
battles against ZANU-PF and for having come as far as a
position in government. What was most important now was not
which ministries the MDC controlled, but for MDC leader
Morgan Tsvangirai to negotiate firm control for the Prime
Minister of all government ministries so that ministers could
HARARE 00000924 002 OF 003
not go behind his back to Mugabe and other ZANU-PF officials.
———————
The Future of ZANU-PF
———————
¶6. (C) Mzembi told us that within ZANU-PF there are a number
of young reformers such as himself who would like to see
change. This must come gradually, however. He explained
that if he were to openly oppose ZANU-PF leadership, his
business interests would be crushed by the party. He also
pointed to Simba Makoni, who thought he could lead a
break-away group from ZANU-PF. People Makoni had counted on
had never come forward, leaving Makoni as a voice in the
wilderness.
¶7. (C) Mzembi opined that ZANU-PF leadership was old and
that Mugabe’s successor would be neither Mnangagwa nor the
Mujurus, but would come from the younger, reformist part of
the party. (He did not speculate on whom.) With a limited
number of ministries, there would be a large number of MPs
from both parties who would be disappointed at not receiving
cabinet posts. Eventually, there were likely to be alliances
across the aisle as these MPs from both parties challenged
their leadership, and this could lead to a realignment of the
parties.
¶8. (C) Mzembi said had been at recent meetings that included
Mugabe and Mnangagwa and he doubted there was a rift between
the two. He categorized as false reports that Mnangagwa had
been beaten at Mugabe’s behest and said these reports had
been spread by a faction of the CIO.
———————–
Parliament and Progress
———————–
¶9. (C) Mzembi told us he believed an agreement would be
completed between ZANU-PF and the MDC. The House of
Assembly, the lower house, began sitting yesterday and one of
the first items on its agenda would be adoption of Amendment
19, which would encapsulate the September 15 power-sharing
agreement. This would pressure the parties to complete a
deal, if one had not already been completed. Other
parliamentary priorities would be adoption of a budget and
drafting of a new constitution.
¶10. (C) Parliament would provide a good opportunity,
according to Mzembi, for ZANU-PF and MDC officials to meet,
discuss, and to work together. He had already had an
opportunity to talk about a ZANU-PF–MDC agreement with MDC
spokesman Nelson Chamisa and he looked forward to working
with other MDC MPs.
¶11. (C) We noted our hope that an equitable power-sharing
agreement would be reached and that a new government would
undertake political and economic reform that would ultimately
result in international reengagement. To that end, it would
be useful to meet now with ZANU-PF MPs, including those that
would have ministerial roles. Mzembi acknowledged that the
party looked askance at contacts with the West–party
officials generally considered such contact akin to criminal
activity–but thought that after a new government was formed
contacts would be tolerated, although probably not yet
welcomed.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶12. (C) Mzembi represents a reformist part of ZANU-PF that
HARARE 00000924 003 OF 003
is trying to move the party in the right direction to help
shape its future and that of the country. For now, however,
if an agreement is signed, it is likely that the old guard
will attempt to cling to power in order to continue to
benefit from patronage and to protect themselves from
prosecution. We continue to believe that the road forward
will be slow and bumpy. END COMMENT.
DHANANI
–
(25 VIEWS)
