Former Malawi President Bingu wa Mutharika had a longstanding personal rapport with President Robert Mugabe and was highly unlikely to support any effort to remove or condemn Mugabe.
This was said by the United States embassy in Lilongwe as it assessed Mutharika just before his appointment as chairman of the African Union.
The embassy said Bingu and his brother, Peter, shared a reflex, perhaps born out of their childhood experiences with British colonialism, to resist any attempt by foreign donors or other leaders to push their “outsider”approaches to African challenges.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 10LILONGWE51, PRESIDENT MUTHARIKA’S AGENDA FOR THE AU
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VZCZCXRO0594
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHLMC RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHLG #0051/01 0281712
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281648Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0033
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE IMMEDIATE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0001
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000051
SIPDIS
ADDIS ABABA FOR A/S CARSON
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28
TAGS: AU EAID ECON EINV PREL MI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MUTHARIKA’S AGENDA FOR THE AU
REF: 09 LILONGWE 690; 10 LILONGWE 37; 09 LILONGWE 676
09 LILONGWE 454; 09 LILONGWE 478
CLASSIFIED BY: Sullivan Kevin, DCM; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
¶1. SUMMARY: Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika has not
articulated a specific agenda for the African Union if, as
expected, he is elected the organization’s chair at the AU’s
upcoming summit in Addis Ababa. To date, Mutharika has generally
kept a low profile on international political issues. He appears
unlikely to pursue an active role as an international mediator on
difficult issues like Sudan, Somalia or Zimbabwe. He has shown
little inclination or talent as a conciliator domestically.
Mutharika has shown genuine enthusiasm, on the other hand, for
development and economic issues, but has tended to oppose IMF
orthodoxy and “Western” solutions to African problems. The
President has also expressed a keen interest in climate change, and
could potentially be helpful in urging more African countries to
associate themselves with the Copenhagen Accords. President
Mutharika would relish his role as Chair of the African Union, but
the USG should nurture realistic expectations concerning the
quality of leadership and energy this aging, contrarian leader and
his tiny and underfunded diplomatic team will bring to the office.
End Summary.
¶2. As the Southern African Development Community’s candidate
for Chairperson of the African Union, Malawian President Bingu wa
Mutharika appears likely to be elected to the post at the upcoming
heads of state summit in Addis Ababa (ref A). Malawi’s Ministry
of Foreign Affairs (MFA) recently expressed confidence that Malawi
has enough confirmed support around the continent to prevail over
any Libyan attempt to extend its chairmanship. The President told
a group of donors January 18 (ref B) that he had not yet formulated
a detailed agenda for his term as head of the AU, but would instead
consult with other heads of state at the Addis summit to learn
their views. He promised to brief the Lilongwe diplomatic corps on
his plans soon after returning from Ethiopia.
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BINGU: CREATURE OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
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—–
¶3. While we have no explicit pronouncements concerning
Mutharika’s vision for his possible year as Chairperson, his long
career as an international civil servant and statements outside the
AU context provide some clues as to his views. Assuming the AU
Chair would mark the pinnacle of Mutharika’s long career as an
international civil servant. He began his international work as a
low-level officer with the United Nations in 1966 and, after a
stint at the World Bank in the mid 1970’s, returned to the UN in
1978 as Director of Trade Development and Finance, serving both in
the United States and in Addis Ababa. From 1991 to 1997, Mutharika
served as Secretary General of what would eventually become the
Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). His
tenure there ended badly, with allegations of financial
mismanagement and a rumored feud with then Malawi’s then-president,
Bakili Muluzi. Nonetheless, Mutharika would bring to the position
of AU Chair a sense that the job is a logical next step for a man
who has dedicated much of his professional life to African regional
issues and organizations.
————————-
AFRICA OLD-THINK
————————-
LILONGWE 00000051 002 OF 004
¶4. Bingu, as he is known in Malawi, would also bring to the
Chairmanship a set of views on policy issues that are in many ways
a throwback to African “old-think.” Malawi still boasts a rapidly
growing economy, but the President over the last few years has
adopted an increasingly statist perspective on major economic
issues. He has largely crowded the private sector out of his
signature fertilizer subsidy program and set unrealistic minimum
prices for agricultural crops. Bingu has called for Malawi’s
transformation from an importing and consuming nation to a
producing and exporting country, but his stubborn insistence on an
overvalued exchange rate and periodic hostility to foreign
investors has hampered this process. He threw several senior
executives from U.S.-based tobacco companies out of Malawi,
purportedly because they refused to pay the minimum prices the
President had established for the commodity. U.S. firm Cargill
recently pulled out of the cotton sector for the same reason (ref
C).
¶5. Although foreign assistance makes up approximately 40
percent of Malawi’s national budget, the President has staked out
public positions in opposition to conventional wisdom coming from
donors, including international financial institutions. Mutharika
has argued that none of the world fastest developing economies over
recent decades has followed the orthodox prescriptions of the IMF
and other Western donors, so why should Malawi? In fact, the GOM
has maintained reasonable fiscal discipline since Bingu came to
power and has not taken significant steps to nationalize industries
or land, so the President’s bark has in some ways been worse than
his bite. It would not be surprising, however, if Mutharika used
the AU Chair as a platform to project some of his more contrarian
economic notions, particularly given his own credentials as an
international economist
——————————————— ———————
FAVORITES: FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
——————————————— ———————
¶6. Food Security and climate change are two development issues
where President Mutharika has demonstrated a strong interest (ref
D). Bingu has made food security his number one domestic priority,
and his agricultural input subsidy program has won him popularity
at home and plaudits abroad. While the program deserves some
credit for Malawi’s recent bumper harvests, it has suffered from
mismanagement, politicization and corruption. Consistently good
rains have had at least as much to do with the country’s recent
success as the subsidy program. On climate change, Mutharika has
spoken frequently and passionately about the need for African
countries like Malawi both to mitigate the phenomenon and adapt to
it. What is less clear is the GOM’s attitude toward the recent
accord struck in Copenhagen, about which the President has said
little. Bingu is likely to blame the developed world for the
problem and push hard for as much money as possible from rich
countries, but may be persuaded to support and follow the current
process, and urge other countries in the region to do the same.
—————————————
LOW KEY ON POLITICAL ISSUES
—————————————
¶7. While he has sought out the international spotlight on
economic issues, President Mutharika has generally kept a low
profile on key African political issues including Sudan, Somalia,
Madagascar and Zimbabwe. In the case of Zimbabwe, the President
(like many Malawians) has deep personal connections to this
neighbor. Mutharika has a longstanding personal rapport with
Robert Mugabe, and so is highly unlikely to support any effort to
remove or condemn him. Bingu and his brother, Justice Minister
Peter Mutharika, share a reflex, perhaps born out of their
LILONGWE 00000051 003 OF 004
childhood experiences with British colonialism, to resist any
attempt by foreign donors or other leaders to push their “outsider”
approaches to African challenges.
¶8. That said, Malawi has generally supported moderate SADC
positions on regional issues, and has dipped its toe into regional
peacekeeping missions, particularly MONUC, through company-size
deployments. Plans to deploy an entire Malawian battalion to UNMIS
in Sudan and then MINURCAT in Chad fell through due primarily to
the Malawi Defense Forces’ (MDF) lack of required equipment. The
USG has provided extensive and successful PKO training to the MDF
through the ACOTA program and has provided some PKO equipment (ref
E), but the GOM is still short some $15 million worth of equipment.
President Mutharika recently told a group of diplomats that he did
not intend to divert scarce resources from development projects to
buy peacekeeping material. If donors want us to deploy, he
concluded, they will have to buy us what we need. His assumption
of the AU Chair may nevertheless provide additional opportunities
to engage Bingu on this point, as well as some added motivation for
Malawi to shine on the continental stage.
———————————
CHINA’S RISING PROFILE
———————————
¶9. One foreign power with whom President Mutharika seems
happy to work is China. As it has in other African countries,
China is assuming an increasingly prominent role in Malawi. The
Chinese are now changing the face of Lilongwe’s Capitol Hill by
constructing the country’s imposing new Parliament building as well
as a five-star hotel and conference center. The hotel and
conference center, as well as a new stadium in Lilongwe, are being
financed by concessional loans, not grants, but neither President
Mutharika and nor other senior officials have explained to the
public that the Malawian people will eventually get the bill for
these projects. Some significant off-the-books assistance to
senior government and ruling party officials may be one reason for
the increasingly warm relationship.
——————————————— ———————-
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MALAWI’S MFA: UNDERSTAFFED AND UNDER-RESOURCED
——————————————— ———————-
——-
¶10. Post has enjoyed a positive and productive relationship
with senior Malawian MFA officials over the last year or so.
Malawi has supported recognition for Kosovo, as well as key human
rights resolutions concerning Iran and Burma. At the same time, we
are concerned that the MFA’s small staff will be overwhelmed by the
increased demands of chairing the AU, and could well disappoint in
its ability to organize meetings or pursue solutions on key issues.
The Ambassador and DCM have discussed with the GOM and other donors
the need to increase the MFA’s human resources to address this
looming challenge, but have so far received only vague assurances
that the MFA and Malawian Mission in Addis Ababa will dedicate
sufficient resources to meet their new responsibilities. When the
Ambassador discussed the issue with Justice Minister and
presidential brother Peter Mutharika, the latter’s only request was
for additional assistance to cover travel and other expenses. The
used corporate jet the President recently purchased should prove
useful for AU-related travel within Africa, but the GOM may have to
divert resources from other accounts to fill the gas tank.
¶11. President Mutharika will relish his expected role as Chair
of the African Union, but we should all nurture realistic
LILONGWE 00000051 004 OF 004
expectations concerning the quality of leadership and energy this
aging, contrarian leader and his tiny and underfunded diplomatic
team will bring to the office.
BODDE
(31 VIEWS)
